NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

The prospect for any kind of dramatic turnaround is not all that promising for the injury-riddled Giants, but this is still the NFL and giving up double-digit points in any matchup only adds more risk to the possible reward of a cashing in a winning bet on the favorite. As far as my ‘best bet’ pick, look for Denver to grind out another SU win at home behind the strength of its defense to keep the total in this game UNDER the current 39.5-point line.

It’s difficult to get a really good read on where Tampa Bay is on their progression in 2017 mainly because of Hurricane Irma having them with one less game under their belt than their competition. What we have seen though is a team that can move the ball with 400 plus combined yards in their last two and over 300 yards passing in three straight. Arizona has certainly not lit it up this season, averaging just 16.2 points per game, while facing three lower level points per game clubs. Their offense does match up well on paper against the Bucs defense, but with the O-Line changes and RB Peterson new to the offense they may not be totally in sync this week. If they exceed my expectations in this game, the total will be an easy over, but the Bucs prevail.

The Cardinals have needed OT to beat the lowly Colts and 49ers and have lost by double digits to their 3 other opponents. With no running game and an injury-ravaged o-line, Palmer is being asked to do too much. The Bucs haven’t looked like world beaters either but the return of Martin does help their offense and their pass rushers should have a good day against Arizona. The number is less than a FG and I like Tampa to get a big road win this week.

This matchup appears to look like a blowout. The Texans have scored 124 points over their past 3 games and while they lost 2 of them, their offense looks explosive. Also, the Browns don’t have the offensive firepower the Patriots and Chiefs possess. Houston’s defense will miss Watt and Mercilus and hasn’t been great with them. However, I feel they can step up and contain an offense with no identity and questions at QB. The Texans are 3-0 ATS in the last 3 games of this series and I expect them to be 4-0 ATS after this Sunday.

While the 49ers are winless, their last 4 losses have been by 3 points or less. Hoyer is playing well and the defense, while young, is much improved from 2016. The Redskins are 2-2 and trying to stay in the hunt for the NFC East title. If Hyde can be a viable threat this week, Hoyer should have opportunities downfield to make some big plays. This is a big number and while the talent edge goes to Washington, I think a hungry, young 49ers team can stay within reach. They are also 3-1 ATS in their last 4 visits to the nation’s capital.

Despite each team’s early success, this Thursday night’s contest a big test for both in their quest to be considered a legitimate contender in the NFC this season. While the betting spread for this game is razor sharp at three points for the home team in a very tight matchup, I believe the total line at 45.5 points is a bit soft given the way that both of these quarterbacks have been throwing touchdowns lately. This sets the stage for a play on the OVER for Thursday night.

The Vikings have already proven that they know how to score points and win games at home although that was not the case last week. The jury is still out on this team as a favorite on the road against a Bears’ team that has done a good job at playing its best ball at home. That puts enough doubt in my mind to take the three points and take Chicago to cover again at Soldier Field.

Kansas City has earned its spot as the top team in the NFL right now behind some incredible balance across every phase of the game. While the Chiefs have clearly been the most complete team in the league through the first quarter of the schedule, the pressure to keep playing at this high of a level begins to mount. I am sensing a bit of a trap heading into Monday’s tilt against a fire-up Houston team coming off a huge win at home. This sets the stage for Kansas City’s first setback of the year.

This is a big game for both clubs. The Cowboys were expected to have an easy time of it in their division but they are trailing the Eagles in the standings. The Packers look like they have real competition from the Lions and Vikings. Green Bay won a thrilling 34-31 game over Dallas in the divisional round of the playoffs last year thanks to the right arm of Rodgers. I don’t think a lot has changed between these two teams and believe Rodgers can get it done again. The o-line and running game are concerns but the lack of a pass rush is hurting Dallas this year, more so than in 2016. I look for a big road cover by Green Bay this Sunday.

The trend in this series has been to the UNDER with three straight, but that’s not where I think this will end up. The Seahawks defense appears to have fallen off. It’s a small sample size, but they’re allowing a ridiculous 5 yards per carry on the ground and on deck is Los Angeles with their star RB Todd Gurley. The Rams unlike recent seasons have a passing attack ranking fourth in the league in yards per game 270 while allowing just four sacks. The host’s run defense has also struggled allowing 151.5 yards per game which could have Seattle duplicating last week’s 194-yard rushing attack.

With both teams entering on skids and suffering injuries, it is very hard to sell the stock of either outfit against the spread or outright. The offenses of both teams remain a huge question mark and that is a popular presumption heading into this contest. However, the inquiries should not be made into the status of the Raiders or Ravens offenses. Instead, many should focus on their defenses which have been exposed in the previous two weeks.

Oakland lost by 27 points to the Washington Redskins in their first loss this season. Baltimore as mentioned gave up 26 points to the Steel City last week, after they surrendered 44 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the week prior in London. With both teams looking to resolve issues in their offensive operations, these results will provide blueprints to how they can do so. Let’s not forget the Raiders are without franchise quarterback Derek Carr until early November but they still have exceptional talent in their rolls. If a format is needed on how to get Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper loose, the Raiders should study tape from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Blake Bortles threw for four touchdowns and 244 passing yards against this defense. Oakland will utilize this material accordingly as defense has taken a back-seat to the offense dating back to last year. This one could end up being a shootout.

Jacksonville has alternated good games and bad games so far this year. They may be catching Pittsburgh at a good time as the Steelers offense isn’t yet clicking at its usual pace. They feel confident in Fournette’s ability to get the tough yards easing the pressure on Bortles. I feel the Jags’ pass rush will play a big part in this outcome and while they may not win this game, I feel they can stay within the number in a place that has been kind to them in the past (3-1 ATS last 4 visits).

With the expected absence of starting QB Marcus Mariota, it’s logical to expect a lot of runs by RBs DeMarcus Murray and Derrick Henry. That strategy would go against the Dolphins strength this season. Miami has not allowed a team to exceed 3.1 yards per carry and only the Jets have surpassed 100 yards (103 yards on 3.0 YPC). On the other side of the ball, the best word to describe the Fish is putrid. The last two especially, that has seen the offense amass a combined 225 yards against the Jets and 186 against the Saints! Both teams’ pass defense hasn’t impressed, but with a back-up in for the Titans at QB and Jay Cutler’s struggles for the Fish the UNDER seems like the logical play here.

Despite San Francisco not winning a game yet this year, the Niners have been a cash cow against the spread. San Francisco is 3-1 in against the spread markets. In fact, San Francisco is 1-5 SU in their previous six outings but are 5-1 ATS. This reveals that San Francisco has been offered with inflated numbers to entice action be that no one wants a part of them. However, the market is due for correction and seemingly it is coming soon given the fact the public are finally stepping in on them.

Indianapolis is a tough sell but they are a much more difficult test to take on its own field. In fact, the Colts are 2-1 at Lucas Oil Stadium in their last three outings. Their sole defeat? An overtime match against the same team San Francisco fell to last week, Arizona. The biggest problem surrounding Indy is the absence of Andrew Luck as he is undoubtedly the engine that drives this football team. Unfortunately, the Colts will be without him until November and while he is gone this team will likely encounter many troubles. However, given the fact the Colts get this at home they will get an opponent that may still be jet-lagged from trans-continental travel. Given the fact San Francisco is one of the weakest teams in the league on their best day, we have to like Indianapolis’ chances in a virtual pick-em here.

Buffalo has been very opportunistic in 2017 and the defense is a big reason why. Freed from the ill-suited 3-4 of Rex Ryan, the defense is back to their pre-Ryan days of getting after the QB and forcing TOs. Dalton has thrown 4 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles on the year so the Bills will look to force him into more. Buffalo has done well in this matchup and is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bengals and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 visits. Having a weapon like PK Steven Hauschka (4 53+-yard FGs last 2 weeks) could help the Bills in a close game late.

The Browns maybe down two of their top four receivers for this game from a group that may have been the weakest unit in the league at full strength! The Jets passing offense hasn’t been a strength with a season game high of 233 yards, so they’re likely to stay with a clock eating running game. Key stat: Each club has scored greater than 20 points just once this season.

The Patriots bounced back from an opening day loss to Kansas City as heavy home favorites with a 16-point victory over New Orleans on the road. The expectation for the same kind of turnaround this Thursday night against another NFC South opponent is pretty high with the betting public as they continue to drive the spread higher. I have New England covering as well, but I am taking the bait on the OVER against an already inflated 56-point total line. I have both of these teams lighting up the scoreboard in this prime time matchup.

You have to like what you have seen from Washington early in the season on both sides of the ball; however going on the road and covering the 6.5 points against the most balanced team in the league will be a challenge to say the least. Even though the game is not until Monday night, I would lock in a bet on Kansas City at this current betting line with the half point weighing heavily in favor of the home team.

The Colts needed everything to go their way just to get past Cleveland last Sunday and this team is still in a world of trouble on offense with Luck out of the lineup. As bad as Indianapolis has looked so far, I still do not trust the Seahawks to cover such a big spread at home given just how inconsistent they have played over the first three weeks in every phase of the game. I expect both teams to dial back the offense on Sunday night to its regular level in a game that stays UNDER the current 41.5-point total line.

This game features 2 teams coming off losses. New York is desperate as a 0-3 team but they have holes that may be too big to fill. I don’t see their o-line suddenly flourishing or a strong run game materializing. Both QBs can make mistakes but I like Winston at home this week. I think Tampa Bay will stick with the run and put him in better down-and-distance situations. The Giants are reeling and I don’t see them recovering this week against a legitimate playoff contender like the Bucs.