NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

This is a big game for both clubs. The Cowboys were expected to have an easy time of it in their division but they are trailing the Eagles in the standings. The Packers look like they have real competition from the Lions and Vikings. Green Bay won a thrilling 34-31 game over Dallas in the divisional round of the playoffs last year thanks to the right arm of Rodgers. I don’t think a lot has changed between these two teams and believe Rodgers can get it done again. The o-line and running game are concerns but the lack of a pass rush is hurting Dallas this year, more so than in 2016. I look for a big road cover by Green Bay this Sunday.

The trend in this series has been to the UNDER with three straight, but that’s not where I think this will end up. The Seahawks defense appears to have fallen off. It’s a small sample size, but they’re allowing a ridiculous 5 yards per carry on the ground and on deck is Los Angeles with their star RB Todd Gurley. The Rams unlike recent seasons have a passing attack ranking fourth in the league in yards per game 270 while allowing just four sacks. The host’s run defense has also struggled allowing 151.5 yards per game which could have Seattle duplicating last week’s 194-yard rushing attack.

With both teams entering on skids and suffering injuries, it is very hard to sell the stock of either outfit against the spread or outright. The offenses of both teams remain a huge question mark and that is a popular presumption heading into this contest. However, the inquiries should not be made into the status of the Raiders or Ravens offenses. Instead, many should focus on their defenses which have been exposed in the previous two weeks.

Oakland lost by 27 points to the Washington Redskins in their first loss this season. Baltimore as mentioned gave up 26 points to the Steel City last week, after they surrendered 44 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the week prior in London. With both teams looking to resolve issues in their offensive operations, these results will provide blueprints to how they can do so. Let’s not forget the Raiders are without franchise quarterback Derek Carr until early November but they still have exceptional talent in their rolls. If a format is needed on how to get Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper loose, the Raiders should study tape from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Blake Bortles threw for four touchdowns and 244 passing yards against this defense. Oakland will utilize this material accordingly as defense has taken a back-seat to the offense dating back to last year. This one could end up being a shootout.

Jacksonville has alternated good games and bad games so far this year. They may be catching Pittsburgh at a good time as the Steelers offense isn’t yet clicking at its usual pace. They feel confident in Fournette’s ability to get the tough yards easing the pressure on Bortles. I feel the Jags’ pass rush will play a big part in this outcome and while they may not win this game, I feel they can stay within the number in a place that has been kind to them in the past (3-1 ATS last 4 visits).

With the expected absence of starting QB Marcus Mariota, it’s logical to expect a lot of runs by RBs DeMarcus Murray and Derrick Henry. That strategy would go against the Dolphins strength this season. Miami has not allowed a team to exceed 3.1 yards per carry and only the Jets have surpassed 100 yards (103 yards on 3.0 YPC). On the other side of the ball, the best word to describe the Fish is putrid. The last two especially, that has seen the offense amass a combined 225 yards against the Jets and 186 against the Saints! Both teams’ pass defense hasn’t impressed, but with a back-up in for the Titans at QB and Jay Cutler’s struggles for the Fish the UNDER seems like the logical play here.

Despite San Francisco not winning a game yet this year, the Niners have been a cash cow against the spread. San Francisco is 3-1 in against the spread markets. In fact, San Francisco is 1-5 SU in their previous six outings but are 5-1 ATS. This reveals that San Francisco has been offered with inflated numbers to entice action be that no one wants a part of them. However, the market is due for correction and seemingly it is coming soon given the fact the public are finally stepping in on them.

Indianapolis is a tough sell but they are a much more difficult test to take on its own field. In fact, the Colts are 2-1 at Lucas Oil Stadium in their last three outings. Their sole defeat? An overtime match against the same team San Francisco fell to last week, Arizona. The biggest problem surrounding Indy is the absence of Andrew Luck as he is undoubtedly the engine that drives this football team. Unfortunately, the Colts will be without him until November and while he is gone this team will likely encounter many troubles. However, given the fact the Colts get this at home they will get an opponent that may still be jet-lagged from trans-continental travel. Given the fact San Francisco is one of the weakest teams in the league on their best day, we have to like Indianapolis’ chances in a virtual pick-em here.

Buffalo has been very opportunistic in 2017 and the defense is a big reason why. Freed from the ill-suited 3-4 of Rex Ryan, the defense is back to their pre-Ryan days of getting after the QB and forcing TOs. Dalton has thrown 4 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles on the year so the Bills will look to force him into more. Buffalo has done well in this matchup and is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bengals and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 visits. Having a weapon like PK Steven Hauschka (4 53+-yard FGs last 2 weeks) could help the Bills in a close game late.

The Browns maybe down two of their top four receivers for this game from a group that may have been the weakest unit in the league at full strength! The Jets passing offense hasn’t been a strength with a season game high of 233 yards, so they’re likely to stay with a clock eating running game. Key stat: Each club has scored greater than 20 points just once this season.

The Patriots bounced back from an opening day loss to Kansas City as heavy home favorites with a 16-point victory over New Orleans on the road. The expectation for the same kind of turnaround this Thursday night against another NFC South opponent is pretty high with the betting public as they continue to drive the spread higher. I have New England covering as well, but I am taking the bait on the OVER against an already inflated 56-point total line. I have both of these teams lighting up the scoreboard in this prime time matchup.

You have to like what you have seen from Washington early in the season on both sides of the ball; however going on the road and covering the 6.5 points against the most balanced team in the league will be a challenge to say the least. Even though the game is not until Monday night, I would lock in a bet on Kansas City at this current betting line with the half point weighing heavily in favor of the home team.

The Colts needed everything to go their way just to get past Cleveland last Sunday and this team is still in a world of trouble on offense with Luck out of the lineup. As bad as Indianapolis has looked so far, I still do not trust the Seahawks to cover such a big spread at home given just how inconsistent they have played over the first three weeks in every phase of the game. I expect both teams to dial back the offense on Sunday night to its regular level in a game that stays UNDER the current 41.5-point total line.

This game features 2 teams coming off losses. New York is desperate as a 0-3 team but they have holes that may be too big to fill. I don’t see their o-line suddenly flourishing or a strong run game materializing. Both QBs can make mistakes but I like Winston at home this week. I think Tampa Bay will stick with the run and put him in better down-and-distance situations. The Giants are reeling and I don’t see them recovering this week against a legitimate playoff contender like the Bucs.

Both teams got big wins last week. The Jags are trying to become a legitimate threat in the AFC South and have looked great in 2 games and awful in the other. By sticking with the run, they are keeping pressure off of Bortles and he responded with one of his best days as a pro last week. The Jets are in total rebuild and feature young players everywhere in their lineup. I expect the Jaguar defense to put the clamps on a below-average NY offense and for the running game to lead them to another big road victory.

Generally speaking, the stock in Detroit is far elevated compared to that of Minnesota. Though the two teams enter with identical records, the body of work by the Lions is more proficient from a market perspective. Detroit has been more undervalued be that they own two outright wins as an underdog. Though the Lions failed to cover a three-point line against Atlanta on Sunday in a four-point loss, the market has yet to catch-up to the Lions. This scenario maybe prime for that adjustment.

Minnesota’s offense is frightening. The Vikings own the second best passing attack in the league, as well as the second most productive offensive unit. Minnesota has some exceptional young playmakers across the board, most notably in wide-out Stefon Diggs and newcomer rushing back Dalvin Cook. In comparison, Detroit’s numbers have been more mediocre offensively and if they hope to get their rushing department up and running against Minnesota, they better think again. The Vikings own a top-five rushing defense and will smother any hopes of gashing the middle. Since Calvin Johnson retired from the Lions, the Motor City has been looking for a weapon to get this team to productive numbers offensively. The defense has failed to pick up the slack for the most part. While, Matthew Stafford may be the highest paid athlete in history after landing a new contract in the off-season, he is going to have his hands filled with the likes of Everson Griffen harassing him in the pocket.

The talk of the town is Dallas Cowboys and their vaunted offensive line. Such talent has been able to make the likes of running back Ezekiel Elliot an overnight superstar. However, Los Angeles has some premier talent in their rolls. First, bull rusher Todd Gurley who can very likely be the NFL’s next top-of-the league running back. Gurley, a Georgia product is a well-balanced and versatile playmaker. He is also complemented by another quality and high-caliber talent in wide receiver Sammy Watkins. Collectively with Jared Goff at quarterback, the Rams’ offense is on its way to being a very potent and methodical attack. As a whole, Dallas in Big D is a position many takers like. In such scenarios, many that are keen on the Cowboys can expect to a premium if they wish to take action. Nevertheless, the market is enticing action on the Cowboys and sets up a perfect fade opportunity to go the other way with the Rams. Not only can Los Angeles cover, they can potentially win this contest. For a majority of the time, we have seen the Rams as a marginal pooch over the span of the 2017-2018 season. Now, they are offered at their best price so far. Tremendous upside on the Rams.

Over the past few years, Houston has dominated this matchup but I see a different outcome this week. Tennessee’s offense can still run the ball but their passing game has noticeably improved. Houston’s defense held a weak Cincinnati team but was overmatched vs. the Jaguars and Patriots. Watson has made some big plays but also his share of rookie mistakes. I expect him to make a few more miscues in this one and for the Titans offense to be the star of the show in this division tilt.

The Panthers offense has been dismal this season averaging a meagre 15 points per game. They’ve yet to surpass 300 yards in total offense in a game and their pass blocking has been atrocious without Kalil allowing 10 sacks in their last two games! You know that no matter who the Pats face Brady will be able to put points on the board and the Panthers defensive play last week wouldn’t suggest that will change anytime soon. I rarely lay more than 3 points, but I believe this game sets up perfectly to lay the big number. The Panthers managed a combined 22 points against the Saints and the Bills and the Patriots just hung 36 on a good Houston defense. The same number they scored in the week before against the Saints. New England extends the margin here and gets the point spread cover.

Chicago brings some solid momentum into this Thursday night’s game, but it has just one SU victory in the last seven games between these two bitter rivals. The Packers have not always looked like an elite NFL team this season. However they continue to find ways to win, especially when playing at home. The lean in this one is towards Green Bay covering the touchdown spread, but I am betting that the total on Thursday night stays UNDER the current 45.5-point line.

Both of these teams have been struggling to put points on the board and while I do expect Prescott to play on Monday night there is some concern with that bad ankle. It may take another week or two for each of these teams to get back on track, but when you take into consideration recent trends for both teams combined with current form it does sets the stage for another grinder that stays UNDER the current 47-point line.

Oakland’s fast start out of the gate along with its proven ability to cover on the road the past few seasons makes the Raiders a very attractive play on Sunday night. Adding some value to the betting odds for this inter-conference clash is the AFC West’s perfect 2-0 record both SU and ATS against the NFC East this season. I am banking on the Raiders extending this streak to three as my ‘best bet’ pick in this game.