College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
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Connecticut is the sixth team since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams to win its first five games by double-digits. Four of the previous five won the national championship game. Also, 10 of the Huskies' last 11 wins would have covered the spread on this game. Ultimately, UConn's just the better team in this match-up, and we have our doubts as to whether San Diego State can muster enough offense to keep this one close. We're giving the points with the Huskies here.
UConn's on a super roll, winning its four games in this tournament by an average of 25 points per, and it's got everybody from the talking heads to the oddsmakers to Joe Square agog. But Miami can be a serious headache, and those last two wins over Houston and Texas really impressed us. We see this game playing out a lot closer than a spread like that might indicate, so we're taking the 'Canes and the points.
San Diego State's played the tougher schedule this season and owns the best win in this NCAA tournament, outplaying top-seeded Alabama. The Aztecs are also deep, experienced, and balanced. Florida Atlantic's had a great run, but it comes to an end Saturday; we're betting on San Diego State minus the short spread.
North Texas finished a couple games ahead of UAB in CUSA this season and won two of three meetings. The Mean Green also expended less Tuesday night - Wisconsin basically gave up the game - while the Blazers had to go to the final seconds of overtime. And that means something to us. Also, North Texas plays great defense and shoots 75 percent from the line. We’re betting the Mean Green Thursday night for the win at +110 on the money line.
Gonzaga leads the Nation in offense but UCLA is the better defensive team. And in match-ups like this we love betting on the better defense. Plus, the Bruins come from the better conference and posted the better spread record against teams that made the tournament. We like UCLA here.
Marquette's holds many edges statistically, including an edge in assists-to-turnovers ratio, shooting percentage, and defense suggests, all suggest that they can not only win but get the cover today.
The Duke Blue Devils should secure a win in this matchup. Duke boasts a higher field goal percentage of 45.23% compared to Tennessee's 43.7%. This advantage in scoring efficiency will help Duke capitalize on their offensive opportunities more effectively. Additionally, Duke has a solid 4.63 shooting percentage differential, which demonstrates their ability to outscore opponents consistently. While Tennessee has a better assists-to-turnovers ratio (1.38) than Duke (1.23), indicating better ball control, this may not be enough to compensate for Duke's stronger scoring ability. Duke's 14.66 assists per game demonstrate their effectiveness in creating opportunities for teammates, which could prove decisive in this matchup.
The Kentucky Wildcats hold the advantage in several key categories, including assists, offensive rebounding, and defensive shooting percentage. Their last four wins have been by a larger margin than tonight's spread making this an easy call.
Basing this match on the stats and recent form, this looks like it will be close. Both Penn State and Texas A&M have strong offenses, with Texas A&M holding a slight edge in overall scoring. However, Penn State's better shooting percentage and higher assists-turnover ratio may offset this advantage. Defensively, Texas A&M has the upper hand, allowing fewer points per game and holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage. Rebounding is another area where Texas A&M has an advantage, which could be crucial in a tight game. Given the similarities in recent form and overall performance, this game could go either way. However, Texas A&M's stronger defense and rebounding may give them a slight edge. If you're planning to bet on the point spread, you should consider the fact that Penn State has a better ATS record, particularly on the road, which could make them a more attractive option for bettors. That said, the total stands out for me. I see both teams' defenses playing a significant role, the game could be a lower-scoring affair. Bettors should consider the under in this matchup, particularly with the total set at 134.5.
Based on the provided statistical information, USC holds advantages in assists turnovers, shooting percentage, key offensive stats, and key defensive stats. Michigan State has a slight advantage in rebounding. Given these data points, I'll take the points and back the Trojans.
Both teams have similar overall records, and their recent form has been inconsistent. However, Nevada has a better shooting percentage and defense compared to Arizona State and have the superior RPI ranknig - 25 to 57.
I'm not going to call for the outright upset, but I think Toledo gets the cover here. Toledo has been on a hot streak lately, winning four of their last five games, and their offensive efficiency rating is higher than Michigan's. Additionally, Toledo has been performing well on the road, winning their last five games true road games. While Michigan has the advantage in rebounding, Toledo's higher shooting percentage and better assist-to-turnover ratio give them the edge in this matchup. Toledo's offense has been strong throughout the season, and they have been able to score points efficiently. They have a higher shooting percentage than Michigan, which suggests that they are better at making shots and scoring points. This could be an advantage for Toledo in the game. Moreover, Toledo has a higher offensive efficiency rating, which indicates that they are more effective at generating offense. This could help Toledo to score points even against a good defensive team like Michigan. Michigan's defense has been solid this season, and they have been able to limit the opposition's scoring. They have a better defensive efficiency rating than Toledo, which suggests that they are better at preventing the opposition from scoring points. This could help Michigan to limit Toledo's scoring opportunities and keep the game close, but the six points are the key here.
Mississippi State has the fense to contain the Panthers and that has me laying the small number and also playing the UNDER 132.5.
Purdue’s just the better team in this match-up, most importantly on defense and on the boards. Also, the Boilermakers beat Penn State twice this season by an average score of 78-62. Also, Purdue’s looking for a little taste of redemption, after getting upset by Iowa in last year’s Big 10 tournament championship game. We’re betting the Boilers Sunday.
Kansas has the advantage in rebounding, while Texas has the advantage in shooting percentage. Both teams have a similar assist to turnover ratio, making it difficult to give either team an edge in that category. However, Kansas has been the more consistent team lately, winning nine out of their last ten games. Based on these statistics, we predict that the Kansas Jayhawks will come out on top in this matchup.
While Ohio has historically performed well against Toledo, the Rockets come into this game with a superior record and a more well-rounded game. Their higher shooting percentage, stronger rebounding, and superior assist rate should give them the edge they need to win this game, even with the five-point spread we're laying the points'.
Although Texas has a better record and the advantage in assists and turnovers, Oklahoma State's rebounding and shooting percentage are slightly better. Given their recent form and trends, Texas has a slight edge in this matchup. However, the point spread of 6 seems a bit high, and Oklahoma State has the potential to keep this game close. Overall, we recommend taking Oklahoma State at +6.
Based on the power stats and betting trends, Ohio State has the edge in this matchup. They have the advantage in shooting percentage and rebounding, and are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Wisconsin. However, both teams have struggled in their recent games, so this could go either way. The total is interesting, though. Going over in 8 of the last 11 games between these two teams, so my money is going on the Over 130.5
Gonzaga leads college basketball in FG shooting at 53 percent, and that’s hard to beat. St. Mary’s, meanwhile, shot 51 percent Monday night but we doubt they can pull that trick again here. Also, while the Gaels have played the Zags tough over the last couple seasons they’re still not quite the team Gonzaga is. We’re betting the Bulldogs Tuesday night.
Based on statistical information, this game appears to be a closely matched contest between two teams with different strengths. While Louisiana-Lafayette has the edge in assists and rebounding, South Alabama has an advantage in turnovers and offensive shooting percentage. However, considering the recent trends and the fact that Louisiana-Lafayette has won eight out of their last 12 games against South Alabama, I think they get the money here. I'm calling it 72-69 in favor of Louisiana-Lafayette.