Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Texas A&M Aggies Pick - Odds - Expert Preview

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Texas A&M Aggies Pick - Odds - Expert Preview

Date: March 16, 9:55 pm
Location: Wells Fargo Arena

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Penn State +3
Total: 134.5

Game Information:

The match between Penn State Nittany Lions (22-13) and Texas A&M Aggies (25-9) is scheduled to take place on March 16, 2023, at Wells Fargo Arena. Penn State has a point spread of +3 and the total is set at 134.5.

Last Game:

Penn State recently faced Purdue in a close game, ultimately losing 67-65. Despite the loss, Penn State managed to cover the spread as they were 7.5-point underdogs.

Texas A&M, on the other hand, lost to Alabama 82-63 in their last game. Texas A&M failed to cover the spread as they were 5-point underdogs.

Power Stats

Assists Turnovers

Penn State has the advantage in the assists-turnovers ratio, boasting a 1.55 ratio with 13.94 assists and 9 turnovers per game. Texas A&M has a ratio of 1.02 with 12.65 assists and 12.35 turnovers per game.


Texas A&M holds the edge in rebounding, averaging 36.79 total rebounds per game (12.29 offensive, 24.5 defensive). Penn State averages 32.57 total rebounds per game (6 offensive, 26.57 defensive).

Shooting Percentage

Penn State has a slight advantage in shooting percentage, with an offensive percentage of 46.42% and holding opponents to 43.0%. Texas A&M has an offensive percentage of 43.51% and a defensive percentage of 40.49%, giving them a 3.02 differential.

Key Offensive Stats

Penn State averages 72.31 points per game, with a shooting percentage of 46.42%. They are strong in assists, with 13.94 per game, and maintain a healthy assists-turnovers ratio of 1.55. On the other hand, Texas A&M averages 73.24 points per game, with a shooting percentage of 43.51%. They also average 12.65 assists per game and have an assists-turnovers ratio of 1.02.

Key Defensive Stats

Defensively, Penn State allows 68.4 points per game and holds opponents to a shooting percentage of 43.0%. Texas A&M has a stronger defense, allowing only 66.21 points per game and holding opponents to a 40.49% shooting percentage.

Betting Trends

  • Penn State is 21-13-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
  • Texas A&M has a better ATS record at 23-11.
  • Penn State has a 20-15 over-under (OU) record, while Texas A&M has a 16-18 OU record.
  • Penn State is 5-5-1 ATS away, and Texas A&M is 8-3 ATS away.
  • Both teams have a similar recent form, with Penn State going 8-2 in their last 10 games and Texas A&M also at 8-2.


Penn State Nittany Lions

C. Dorsey (F) - Out indefinitely - Undisclosed

(Thu, Feb 23)

Dorsey is idle with an unknown issue, and there is no timetable for return.

Texas A&M Aggies

E. Henderson (F) - Out indefinitely - Personal

(Mon, Nov 14)

Henderson will be away from the program for an undetermined length of time due to an unspecified reason.

Penn State vs Texas A&M Total Pick 03/16/23

Basing this match on the stats and recent form, this looks like it will be close. Both Penn State and Texas A&M have strong offenses, with Texas A&M holding a slight edge in overall scoring. However, Penn State's better shooting percentage and higher assists-turnover ratio may offset this advantage. Defensively, Texas A&M has the upper hand, allowing fewer points per game and holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage. Rebounding is another area where Texas A&M has an advantage, which could be crucial in a tight game. Given the similarities in recent form and overall performance, this game could go either way. However, Texas A&M's stronger defense and rebounding may give them a slight edge. If you're planning to bet on the point spread, you should consider the fact that Penn State has a better ATS record, particularly on the road, which could make them a more attractive option for bettors. That said, the total stands out for me. I see both teams' defenses playing a significant role, the game could be a lower-scoring affair. Bettors should consider the under in this matchup, particularly with the total set at 134.5.

Free Pick: Take the Under 134.5
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