I don’t think the Bearcats have the offense to keep up with the Bruins who have averaged 90.6 points per game overall this season and 84.1 on neutral courts. Cincinnati’s shooters were on fire in their opener against K State shooting a ridiculous 62.8% from the field and 45.5% from behind the arc. If they can come up with anything near that they have a chance at the upset win making a wager on the total and added play.

The Blue Devils have averaged 80.8 points per game but that number was skewed by running the score up against some lower level teams earlier in the season. That said, they have really turned it up in tournament play. After scoring 75 or fewer points in five of their last seven regular season games Duke has averages 83 points game while taking on some decent defensive clubs in Notre Dame and Louisville. The Blue Devils have needed that scoring as their defense hasn’t performed at an elite level in recent games. They did hold a completely overmatched Troy to 65 points and the middling offense of Notre Dame to 69, but the previous five opponents put up 70 or more and anything near that number probably gets us the money.

I like the Bears here. Both clubs have played well on neutral courts with USC going 6-1 and Baylor 5-1, but those records are misleading. Four of the Trojans victories came against such powerhouse teams as BYU, Missouri State, Wyoming and Washington while the Bears beat three quality clubs in VCU, Michigan State and Louisville. In those three matches Baylor went 3-0 against the spread with two of three wins by greater than today’s listed line.

The final score in Arkansas’ victory over Seton Hall doesn’t reflect how close this game was. Inside of a minute trailing by one the Pirates had the ball and then a whole slew of calls went against them including a ridiculous Flagrant called with 18 seconds remaining. Moving on. When the Razorbacks lose against high quality opponents they tend to lose big going down to Kentucky by 17, Florida by 13, Vandy by 13 and Oklahoma State by 18. This is a huge line for UNC to lay, but they’ve beaten better teams by numbers in this range. The Tar Heels beat Texas Southern by 39, Miami by 25, Pitt by 18, Louisville by 11, Virginia by 24 with only a 7 point win over Duke as their only non double digit victory in their last six wins.

TCU came up with a brilliant 85-82 win over a short handed Kansas team then came back to earth in their match against Iowa State who pummeled them by 21 points. They did come back and win their opener in the NIT over an overmatched Fresno State but couldn’t get the cover winning by just 7 as a large -8.5 betting favorite. Iowa played a horrendous game defensively against Indiana in the Big Ten tournament opener allowing the Hoosiers to shoot 60% from the field and from behind the arc on a 22 point loss. They’ve rebounded nicely nice in their NIT opener extending the lead throughout to win going away by 12 to get the money. The Hawkeyes played hot and cold this season, beating top flight teams like Michigan and Purdue but they had too many game like the Indiana disaster losing by 10 or more in five of their six losses. I don’t think that TCU is in the same quality level of the teams that have defeated Iowa. The Horned Frogs have gone 3-8 in their last 11 and the very same 3-8 on the road this season.

One thing that stands out when looking at the Shockers statistics is that they can play defense. On the season they held the opposition to 14th in the nation ranked 62.5 points on 37.7 FG% shooting. Their defense travels well allowing 63 or fewer points per game in six of the eight games they played on a neutral court Kentucky has really stepped up their defense allowing 70 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games. The Wildcats have also been brilliant defensively on NC’s allowing 66.4 PPG.

This is too difficult of a match up to pick a side, but the total looks like it offers some value. The Wolverines have been shooting the lights out averaging 78.7 points on 51.3 shooting over their last five games which were played on a neutral court. Over that stretch their overall defensive numbers don’t look all that bad allowing 66.3 PPG, but that number is thrown off by the Wisconsin game where the Badgers managed just 56 points. Louisville has put up 77.5 points per game this season and while their NC games scoring falls to 70.8 they have scored 77 or more points in their last three contest is that role and have a 3-2 O/U mark in the five games.

Michigan State has just two wins in their last five games and they came over Miami (a team who I made excuses for their losing streak and was foolhardy to back on Friday) and a young Penn State team who they had a large scheduling edge over. Kansas has proven themselves away from home beating a handful of tournament teams something that MSU had done just twice (Wichita State and Minnesota in OT) before their win over the Hurricanes. I think it would be stretch to think that the Spartans will be the victor in this spot, but can they cover? Michigan State’s last three losses were by five or fewer points and Kansas hasn’t been extending the margin in many of their victories over top quality competition beating Baylor by 2 on the road, WVU by 4 in OT at home and Baylor by five at home. If the Spartans can will the battle on the glass which I think they can they can make this a battle to the buzzer.

The achievements of this Arizona Wildcats team combined with their reputation overall are bound to cause takers to spot an inflated number, as this is a tendency of most popular teams in this tournament. The popular opinion is that St. Mary’s has no chance in this match-up and the public action on this market supports this philosophy. However, the opposite can be inferred as the Gaels have all the metrics to create trouble for Desert Swarm. First off, the Gaels are rated eighth in the country in field goal percentage (49.7%) which is a huge advantage. Given the implications, the Gaels will only be extra prudent in shot selection in this contest. In addition, the Gaels are ranked second in America in scoring defense (57.1 ppg) and are the best in the land in eliminating second chances as they sit first in defensive rebounding (24.1 rpg). When it is factored in that St. Mary’s commit less turnovers compared to Arizona, the Gaels can pull off the upset as they are more bound to play a perfect game against a Wildcats team that may be guilty of looking ahead after taking down Oregon and UCLA in route to their Pac-12 title.

Northwestern capitalized on Vandy’s mistakes to pull out a tight two-point win, but my opinion is that they’re overmatched in this spot. They’ve played well enough on neutral courts going 5-2 beating a good Dayton teams and two narrow losses against by four to Notre Dame and two to Butler. Gonzaga’s NC record is even better going 8-0 beating Arizona, Iowa State and Florida along the way. The matchup issue that stands out is the rebounding. It is a rarity for the Zags to lose the battle on the glass and I believe they will crush Northwestern in that metric on Saturday. In two of the last two games that the Wildcats were outboarded by 12 or more they were outscored 142 to 98 with the lowest margin of victory being 16 points. This may be a better play for a two team teaser (maybe with MTSU), but I’ll take a small shot laying the big lumber.

The money is going the way of the over with the line moving up to as high as 147.5 on many boards, but I think that it goes the other way. Notre Dame doesn't rely on fast break points slowing the game down and methodically setting up before shooting on most possessions. Their defense hasn't been at it best on neutral courts overall this season, allowing 71.2 points per game, but in their last four in that situation they've allowed just 66 PPG. WVU can light up the board averaging 75.7 PPG in seven neutral site games, but they averaged just 68.5 in their last four. Their defense in NC games has been stellar allowing just 62.6 PPG.

Neither one of these squads is coming into the March Madness tournament on a high note with the Gamecocks losers of five of their last seven while the Golden Eagles have gone 2-2. Marquette though does have some games that would suggest that they can get the money here. Before losing out their Big East tourney opener against Seton Hall in their previous five matches they beat a good Creighton team and a competitive Xavier sandwiching a three point road loss to Providence that was preceded by two home wins against St. John’s and Xavier. Marquette has three wins in their last four games versus March Madness tournament teams. The same metric for South Carolina shows a 1-4 record in their last five contests.

Neither one of these squads has good W/L numbers away from home with Michigan State a combined 5-12 (true road and neutral site matches) and Miami 7-9 and in those wins neither club has beaten what could be considered a top level opponent. Overall though that’s a different story. The Hurricanes have knocked off both Duke and UNC at home and the Spartans have beaten Wisconsin and Michigan so no edge for either in that metric. What does stand out for me is their recent play. MSU has just one victory in their last four games and that came against a young Penn State team that they had a huge scheduling edge on. Miami also comes into this game on a 1-3 straight up run, but two of those losses were in road games against March Madness tournament teams and the other on a neutral court against UNC. I’ll take a shot on the small favorite.

Virginia’s defense was brilliant early in this season, but has fallen off in recent games giving up 71 points in back to back games and even Pittsburgh put up 63 three games back. Their offense has picked it up scoring 67 or more in three of their last four. The Cavaliers game plan is to slow down the game limiting the scoring opportunities of their opponents, but that may not work against the Gators who have shot just under 50 from the field in three of their last four games.

The Bearcats are 3-2 on neutral courts winning three games against outmatched opposition for example a 21 point spanking of a very young Penn State team back in November and then in the AAC tourney easily dispatching Tulsa and UConn as a -15.5 and -9.5 point spread favorite. On Friday night they’ll be taking on a team that comes into this match firing on all cylinders winning four of five with the loss being by one point to WVU. At a neutral site they’re 5-2 on the year with two one point losses coming against the aforementioned Mountaineers and to Maryland back in November. Their numbers in this role are hands down better than Cincinnati’s with a 48.3 FG% versus 42.6% and defensively allowing 38.9 FG% compared to Cincy’s 42.5. I’ll back the love dog in this spot.

I jumped on Middle Tennessee State in their tournament opener against Minnesota and I think that they have a good shot at punching their ticket for the Sweet 16. They haven’t played many elite teams on neutral courts this season but they have yet to taste defeat going 7-0 straight up and 6-1 versus the spread. The Blue Raiders shooting numbers in those games are outstanding with the offense shooting 50.7 from the field and the defense holding the opposition to a 39.4 FG%. It’s tough to knock Butler on their play this season, but they did go into their first round game on a two game losing streak and while the losses were to Seton Hall and Xavier two teams that are in this tourney they didn’t shoot well in those two matches. That may be a problem on Saturday especially with the Bulldogs forward Kelan Martin (15.9 PPG) not expected to be 100%. Butler is just 3-5 ATS in their last five as a spread favorite making the dog the logical play here.

The Shockers are 5-2 when playing on neutral courts this season losing to Michigan State and Louisville early in the season and have strung together four straight since then. The Flyers have been unimpressive in that metric going 2-3 with the two wins over Portland and New Mexico. Both teams play good defense and their offenses rely heavily on the three-pointer and Wichita State is superior in each of those statistically.

Both teams come into this game on a roll with Nevada and Iowa State winners of nine of their last ten. The strength of Iowa State is their three point shooting and that is what they rode to a Big 12 title. On the season on a neutral court they’re 6-1 losing only to a very good Gonzaga team by two points. That said, Nevada has defended the three well holding the opposition to a 31.3% on neutral courts and 30.7. THe Cyclones were sky high after taking the title and I think they may come out a little flat in their tournament opener which would lead me to believe that the Wolf Pack can stay within the ISU handicap.

VCU played four non conference games on neutral courts and while they did go 2-2 both straight up and against the spread when they were in the underdog role they lost both matches. St. Mary’s lost four games this season, but keep in mind that three of them came against the Gonzaga. In other words the Gaels went 28-1 in games not involving 'Zaga going 16-8-2 versus the betting line.

The Razorbacks were on a roll before the SEC tourney winners of five of their previous six games. They carried that play in the tourney taking their first two games before falling to Kentucky in the final. That’s all and good, but one thing stands out with this team and ity’s their ability to beat top notch competition. Arkansas went a poor 0-5 against teams with a top 25 RPI. Seton Hall wasn’t much better going 1-4 they were in most of their games winning over Butler on the road by 6, losing to Villanova by 2 on a neutral court in the Big East final and by 5 on a NC against Florida. In comparison Arkansas’ closest losing margin was by 9 to Florida at home.