The Hawkeyes have scored 75.1 points per game in conference games, but that number is inflated by the 104 points scored in the overtime game against the Illini. Four Big Ten teams have held Iowa to fewer than 70 points, and that's where I think they fall today. The Cornhuskers are certainly not an offensive juggernaut relying on their defense to give them a chance to win, and that's precisely what it has done in conference games. Nebraska has scored 65.9 points in the ten games while allowing 65.1 and holding eight of their ten rivals to fewer than 70 points.

This fixture has been booked as an early-season clash of Southern Conference titans. Undoubtedly, this game will have an impact on the outcome of the regular season standings and eventual seeding in the Southern Conference standings. Whilst post-season tournaments are a season within themselves, the regular season can offer plenty of incentives and momentum if things go well. Wofford has seemed to be unstoppable at home this season, thus the number that we see on the table here resonates with us. When you couple the fact that Wofford has been riding a hot hand as of late, the figure almost seems to good to be true for those wishing to book the Terriers as a dog. However, as we have revealed recently Wofford has been the benefactors of good fortune. The Terriers remain the 3rd luckiest team in America whilst playing a 260th ranked strength of schedule according to KenPom. Given the low-hanging fruit this seems like a spot where a correction could come in and hand Wofford a loss in close games they have been on the beneficial side of all season long. When you toss in the fact, ETSU owns advantages in field goal percentage, defense, rebounding, and points per game…it seems like a certitude. Swallow the points.

The Badgers don’t come into this game on a roll having dropped four out of their last five straight up and against the spread, but I think that they can be competitive in this game. They've been hurt by their injuries at the guard position with both Kobe King and D’Mitrik Trice being out. Trice who has been out since December 6th has a chance to return tonight and that would be a massive boost for this team. Wisconsin obviously hasn't impressed over their last five contests, but they haven't been outmatched in all five crushing Illinois by 25 at home and playing Nebraska and Rutgers both tough in four-point losses. The Spartans haven't had a problem extending the margin at home, but for the most part, the recent competition has been weak, and I believe the linemaker is reaching here.

According to KenPom, the Phoenix are the 27h luckiest team in the country according to the results they attained against nominal opposition. KenPom ranks Wagner’s schedule as one of the weakest in terms of strength across the country. Presently, the Seahawks SOS sits at 331st. What this signals to us is that the Seahawks’ record is a bit of a misnomer. There are many factors in addition to this that convey there is equity in backing St. Francis here.

Wagner is undefeated at home this season. On the road, they have lost all six of their defeats. Psychologically this narrative can play many tricks on the Seahawks and their resultant performance. Whilst one can suggest that there many inaccuracies in how both Wagner and St. Francis are priced due to little market action, we have to like that position given the fact the metrics reveal the Seahawks are in line for a likely significant loss. Swallow the points.

Neither squad has been tearing it up in conference play with Utah holding a 4-4 record and ASU 3-4. The Sun Devils are just  1-1 in PAC-12 matches, losing by four to the Ducks a team that the Utes beat by 10 on the road and beat the Beavers by two, a team that the Utes again beat on the road. Arizona State did win by three earlier in Utah, but this is a team that has yet to cover a spread in seven conference games. The previous match between these two squads was tied in the last minute and I see no reason to expect a different type of game this go around. 

According to KenPom, the Phoenix are the 16th luckiest team in the country according to the results they have achieved. With this being said, Elon has been on the end of some positive outcomes in situations that could have gone against them. On paper, this looks like a scenario where such variables won’t even come into the fold. However, if we take a closer look at the line offering here the market would suggest otherwise.

As mentioned, these two teams last met under a month ago and Elon won by 13 more points than the price asked here. With respect to home court advantage, one would still expect that number to be a bit higher thus all of the public intrigue out of the gate. However, Elon averages just .4 more points per game than Drexel (72.4 ppg for Elon versus 72.0 ppg for Drexel). The Phoenix also average just .3 more offensive rebounds per game compared to their counterparts (32.9 off rpg for Elon and 32.6 off rpg for Drexel, respectively). When you factor in the road woes that Elon has sustained, there is a very good chance that these numbers may not live up to the mean. If that is the case, Drexel is in line for an upset. Toss in the points and we will lock and load the Dragons.

The Cornhuskers have been competitive in most road games but are just 2-6 on the road this season. The Scarlet Knights are 2-2 as a host in conference games, but their scoring against competent defenses is a concern making a point spread pick on this game not the logical way to bet this game. The total though is worth playing. In their last seven Big Ten games Nebraska has held all but Purdue to 65 or fewer points and now face a team that has scored 59.9 points per game in conference action. The Rutgers’ low scoring average is misleading with an overtime game against MSU (59 points in regulation) and a blowout win over Iowa putting up 80 points against the Hawkeyes porous defense. Two good defenses facing questionable offenses has me forecasting a 60-55 type game.

Situational betting is a big part of our approach. There are several contributing factors here that make the Keydets a savory play. First, the stock on the Terriers is through the ceiling as they are one of the hottest teams in the Southern Conference. With each win they accumulate, you can expect to pay a heftier price to back them. When you couple this with Wofford’s dominance over VMI in this series, it is a certainty. However, VMI has a couple of variables that can foster a cover here.

First, Wofford has a losing record on the road and like many proficient teams in college basketball dominates at home. With this being said, VMI is the more physical team on the boards in creating second chance opportunities. Wofford averages 27.8 rebounds per game to VMI’s 29.8. Furthermore, the two teams have played comparable schedules in terms of quality whilst Wofford owns the second-ranked Luck quotient in all the land, according to KenPom. When you combine these narratives, there is a very good chance VMI is in a spot to not only cover but perhaps pull an upset outright.

Northwestern has put up greater than 70 points in one Big Ten game this season and it came against Minnesota and I don’t think that they can repeat in the rematch. In true road games this season, they’ve averaged a meagre 61.5 points per game. In three conference road contests the number is skewed because of the 46 points scored against Indiana, so the 59.3 PPG is misleading, but what isn’t misleading is that they didn’t reach 70 points in all three. Minnesota has put up 71 points per game in Big Ten home games, however their previous game against NWU earlier this season on the road (60 points) and the team’s recent play scoring 66 or fewer points in four of their last five has me projecting a lower number. The probability of either team hitting 70 points is low making a total forecast on this game an easy call.

This situation sets up with the ideal ingredients for us to step in. At first glance, the prospect of a team like Rider with its current record being given away against a team with a losing record like Fairfield could seem like a deal and a half. However, the proof lies in the pudding that this is not the case.

The two teams played congruent schedules in terms of overall strength. In fact, Rider’s ranks 210th whilst Fairfield’s SOS sits at 234th according to KenPom. However, the luck quotient has been resting solely with the Broncs as they are ranked 71st in that department while the Stags are 230th. Very easily, these two teams could have been closer in wins and losses. Furthermore, Fairfield in particular will be surging into this game after the work they put in against Niagara on Saturday. Rider is lucky to get away with a win. Now, we get the team with the hot hand at home with points to boot. Fairfield bodes tremendous value.

The Mountaineers have two losses in Big 12 action and in both games, they were out-played and out-scored in the second half. Their inability to play a full 40 minutes at times this season is a concern especially when they head to Fort Worth and take to the floor of the Schollmaier Arena tonight. The tenacious Horned Frogs are an excellent second half team and are a good 10-2 at home and can prevail here.

The game against the Hawkeyes (80 -64) was an aberration to the scoring pattern of the Scarlet Knights who had averaged 57.6 points per game in regulation over their previous six Big Ten games. Michigan has scored 69.5 points per game in conference matches, but their shooters have been ice cold in their last two games registering a 39.31 FG%. The Scarlet Knights have played well defensively in recent games holding their Big 10 opponents to 68 or fewer PPG in regulation over the last four.

Without question a recency bias is taking shape here given how Towson performed against Wilmington just over two weeks ago. After defeating the Seahawks by 18, a line requiring a third of the final tally on January 5th seems like an easy swim back for takers looking to wager on the Tigers. However, we would urge takers to exercise prudence and caution before taking the plunge.

UNC-Wilmington could easily be 6-1 SU at home this season had a little bit of luck been on their side. The Seahawks lost two of their three home defeats by a combined six points, one of which also required overtime. Unfortunately, the Seahawks have been on the wrong side of the equation but nevertheless took some of the better teams in the CAA the distance when they ventured down to Wilmington. This team plays at a high level at home and we can take advantage of that with an enhanced point spread.

I’m going to go with the hot hand here. The Buffaloes have yet to taste defeat at home on the scoreboard and at the betting windows versus a conference rival this season. They’ve won four out of five losing only to USC on the road over that stretch. They’ve played well at both ends of the court holding their opponents to an ultra-impressive 39 FG% while shooting 46.3 themselves. The Huskies come into this match scoring an average of 63 points on an ice-cold 40.3 shooting percentage over their last five, dropping three of those games. I don’t like laying this many points, but the form alone suggests that this is the logical play.

We will continue to exploit a wrinkle that can produce a lot of profits when the host is a pooch. Manhattan has been dominant at home this season whilst Canisius has struggled mightily. This is a prominent feature of college basketball and even more prevalent in mid-major conferences such as the MAAC. This is even more conducive to the Jaspers’ ace in the hole: their three-point shooting game. The Jaspers are top-level from behind the arc, proliferating a 47th ranked 38.6%. This will be their avenue to establish momentum. If Manhattan gets hot early, it can get ugly.

Manhattan is sick and tired of being bullied by Canisius and this couldn’t be a better venue for the Jaspers to turn the tide. The Jaspers trail the Golden Griffins by just one game in the conference standings. Presently, Canisius is tied with Iona at the top of the table. A win for Manhattan puts them right in the mix for the conference race. With home cooking behind them, the Jaspers are in prime position to pull off an upset against a team that is not used to being the hunted.

The Badgers have lost their last three against conference foes, but two of the losses were by four points and the other loss was against a very good Purdue team. All three of those matches were on the road and they return home to the Kohl Center tonight where they’ve put together a nice five-game win streak included in the streak was a 10-point victory over Big Ten rival Indiana. Here’s a key stat – six of Wisconsin’s seven true home victories were by eight or greater points.

The Wolverines should be fully focused on tightening up their defense after allowing the Terrapins a 48.1 FG% and barely escaping with the win. The Cornhuskers haven’t offered up much offense in conference games averaging 66.86 points per game and have only reached 70 points in regulation in one of their last five. Defensively Nebraska has been consistently strong allowing only Purdue to reach over 70 points in their last seven. Michigan isn’t offensively challenged but they haven’t been shooting the ball well in recent games and were putrid against Maryland in their latest.

Youngstown State has won their last two contests at home, so it is safe to assess that the Penguins feed off of the home cooking. The opposite has been the case with Illinois-Chicago when it comes to road outings as they have won just once this year away from the Windy City. There are many ingredients here that could imply the Penguins are in position to pull off an upset, let alone cover. The Penguins love to play the tempo game as they are ranked 48th in the country in this department according to KenPom. This allows YSU to manufacture more points and that could be a tough riddle for the Flames to solve with the crowd working against them. When you toss in the fact that Youngstown State has played a much tougher schedule particularly in out-of-conference play (YSU’s Non-Conference SOS ranks 66th compared to UIC who sits at 224th), this Penguins team is battle-tested and will be no easy out for the Flames.

This may be the game that puts the end to Stanford’s run, but I’m willing to go to the well one more time. The Cardinal have been the underdog in four straight games and came away not only with the point spread cover, but the outright win, all versus PAC-12 teams. The Sun Devils haven’t looked the same team after opening their conference schedule going 2-3 with the two victories being by two over Oregon State at home and by three over Utah on the road.

The Buckeyes have averaged just under 80 points per game overall this season and that rises a point to 80.83 in their six conference games. In those six games we’ve seen them outscore their rival’s seasonal scoring defense average. Those statistics were leaning me to making a wager on the OVER, but after looking at the Wildcats offense and specifically Scottie Lindsay that is a risky proposition. Lindsay has been struggling mightily in his last six games shooting 21/81 (25.9% from the field. He’s not their only scoring option, but he is a big part of the equation. OSU is unbeaten in their six Big Ten games and won all but the Michigan game (72-62) by double digits outscoring their opponent by 17.5 points per game.