NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

The Titans remain in the thick of the AFC South title race, but they are stepping up in class this Thursday night in a very tough place to win a game. The Steelers have built up some momentum over their past four games with much better consistency on both sides of the ball. I do not see Pittsburgh taking a step backwards at home this late in the season, so I will lay the seven points with a ‘best bet’ the Steelers cover the touchdown spread.

Points could be hard to come by on Monday night given what we have seen from Miami’s offense and Carolina’s defense this season, but I am still not convinced that the Panthers are good enough to command a double-digit spread as home favorites. The Dolphins have played bad recently, but they are not that bad of team overall. You can also add the fact that Carolina has been inconsistent at times on both sides of the ball. I may be taking the bait here, but I am taking the 10 points and the road underdog ATS on Monday night.

New England is well rested and primed for a second-half run which is a bad combination for a Denver team that appears to be on the verge of a complete collapse following one of its worst losses in recent memory. You can only out so much pressure on one side of the ball and, on the heels of Philly’s offensive explosion, Brady and the Patriots’ offense should be able to exploit the dire situation with the Broncos as well. Lay the points and take the road favorite to cover on Sunday night.

The Cowboys have picked up a few noteworthy wins in the past couple of weeks and this has generated a lot of attention and fanfare in their direction. Despite their portfolio of performances, the Cowboys are priced as a dog this week with due reason. The Cowboys will be without the engine of their offense but some believe that the Dallas offensive line will be able to erase this void by creating the holes and opportunities for the next man up. Both Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris have extensive expertise at this level so there is certainly merit in believing the rushing operations will resume as normal.

However, Atlanta has been looking for a signature win this season to erase the skepticism that has surrounded them. Many have said this team has a “Super Bowl Hangover” and declared the Birds have little chance of returning to the post-season. There is no better way to quiet critics than take down a NFL blue blood in a high-profile contest like this one. Atlanta will look to make a statement in front of their home crowd.

This game features two teams trending in opposite directions. LA has won 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 games. They are clicking on all cylinders offensively as HC Sean McVay has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround in Goff’s play as well as the offense as a whole. Despite their 3-4 record at the time, the Texans were still in the hunt for the AFC South crown before Watson was felled with a season-ending knee injury. Savage hasn’t been able to get the job done despite several opportunities and the defense is dealing with injury issues. The number is pretty big but the Rams don’t sit on leads; they look to expand them. With this in mind, I like LA to get another big win at home this Sunday and cover a pretty high number.

The Browns are 1-23 SU under HC Hue Jackson and their front office botched a prospective trade for Bengals QB A.J. McCarron last week due to a paperwork mix up. Detroit is 16-8 SU in the second half of the season under HC Jim Caldwell. Stafford is having a good season and I don’t see this defense being able to contain him. Conversely, Cleveland’s offense is a mess with no players to account for, allowing the Lions to play loose and take chances. This is a big number to be sure but 3 of the 4 Lions wins have been by 13+ points while the Browns have lost 2 of their last 3 games by 17 and 16 points. With the Packers a non-factor, Detroit has their sights set on Minnesota and the division crown. They won’t overlook this dreadful team and I look for an easy win at home for the Lions.

The NY Jets passing offense hasn’t been racking up the yards with QB Josh McCown at the helm ranking a lowly 25th in the league, but he has been accurate. McCown has completed 70.5 percent of his pass attempts this season and has a respectable 13 TD to 7 INT ratio. He should have some success facing the porous secondary of the Bucs who rank in the bottom 10 in many pass defense categories this season. Tampa Bay comes into this game missing their top two offensive players and may be missing both starting offensive tackles. The Jets defense will be arguably the weakest unit that the Bucs have faced in over a month, but I don’t think with key personnel losses that they’ll be able to capitalize on it.

Situationally, this contest sets up perfectly for what we call a buy-low and sell-high scenario. There is not a hotter team in the NFL right now perhaps than the New Orleans Saints. With their winning streak, the Saints’ stock continues to rise to new levels each week. Thumping Tampa Bay to the extent the Saints did only elevates them to a point where a let-down is the only possible outcome that is bound to happen. This could be that juncture.

The Saints do not fare well historically outside of their controlled environment once the autumn temperatures begin to dip. In Buffalo, it is frigid compared to the Big Easy. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this year and that mark may stay unscathed the closer the season gets to winter. Nevertheless, Buffalo was embarrassed by a football team that was supposed to go winless this year on national television when the Jets had their way with the Buffs. This course of events is bound to cultivate a reaction from the public and only sells the stock of the scorching Saints even more. Buffalo may be worth a look on the Money Line here but for those looking to play it safe, take the points.

This is a key game for both clubs. The Chargers need to win to keep their wild card hopes alive while Jacksonville is in a race to win the AFC South and secure their first playoff berth since 2007. I like the matchup of the Jags’ running game vs. the Chargers defense and their secondary vs. the LA receivers. Jacksonville is only 1-2 at home this year but they won last week in convincing fashion. I look for them to make it 2 in a row and feel the number is low enough for them to get the cover.

Seattle finds itself in an almost must-win situation given the highly competitive playoff picture in the NFC. The Cardinals know they can keep their season alive with an upset this Thursday night, but I am not sure how far they can ride Adrian Peterson against a Seahawks’ defense that will be looking for redemption after letting last week’s game slip through the cracks. Go with the better overall team in this division tilt and lay the six points on the road with Seattle winning SU and ATS.

It is pretty obvious that both of these teams need a win on Monday night to keep their seasons from completely going in the tank, but barring a rare tie somebody has to win and somebody has to lose. Given Detroit’s current form on offense and Green Bay’s dilemma at quarterback, my ‘best bet’ pick is that neither team will look all that pretty in victory with the total staying UNDER the current 43-point line.

Both of these teams need to start the second half of the season on a much better note than how they each ended the first. The pressure is really dialed up on the Raiders given this team’s sky-high expectation level before the games started counting for real. Miami needs a quick fix for its offense and Cutler is not the answer. The quick pick for Sunday night’s matchup is the UNDER on the current 44-point total line with scoring points remaining at a premium for both teams.

While a bias can be leveraged on the Cardinals for recent successes against the 49ers, the acquisition of Garoppolo has shifted the public view of this contest. Be that San Francisco has looked outright awful in their last two contests, many see the Niners as a golden opportunity against an Arizona team that in its own right looks in very poor form.

It has been said once already and we will reiterate the fact that the 49ers have few selling points. The Niners are winless on the year and they are very simply a team that cannot be trusted with this low of a cushion, given the fact they have failed to cover loftier numbers in recent weeks. Arizona comes into this contest the fresher of the two and they will look to take advantage of a newcomer quarterback that still has to acclimate to the new system he is being inserted into. While the 49ers have tremendous upside moving forward, they will still have to undergo some growing pains. Whilst they do we will go ahead and spot the minimal points here in what will be a rebound win for the Cardinals.

Is there a more perfect time to take the Bengals? Probably not. The market opened with the Bengals as a minimal pooch which suggests that they are in position to win this week despite looking abysmal last week against an inferior opponent. As a result of the extensive action on the Jaguars, Bengals takers can approach this market now in two manners. They can take back an inflated Money Line and enhance their return or they can take advantage of an additional field goal afforded to them. The Jaguars are a team that remains winless at home this year and that is because they play in one of the most static environments in all of the NFL. While the Jaguars have made noticeable strides as a franchise, they are still prone for a few hiccups. This will likely be one of them.

Tennessee has four wins on the season and in three of those wins they rushed for 179 vs. Jacksonville, 195 vs. Seattle and 168 vs. Indianapolis. In their three losses they were held to fewer than 95 yards rushing. So, it doesn’t take a genius to realize that if the Titans can’t run they are very unlikely to come away with a win. First glance at the Ravens’ run defense statistics may have you thinking that won’t be a problem this week, but there is more to the story. The key to the Ravens run defense is having a healthy Brandon Williams on the defensive line. In the four games he has played in this season, Baltimore allowed their opponent fewer than 100 yards rushing in three of those contests with the only game that an opponent exceeded that coming in his first game back from injury. This should be a low scoring game decided by three points making the plus four on the road club a solid bet.

These teams are going in opposite directions as the Saints are rolling (all 5 wins by 8+ points). Brees is playing more relaxed as he knows the fate of the team is no longer squarely on his shoulders. The running game and defense are both pulling their weight and I like the home side to make it 6 in a row.

This matchup has been very unkind to LA in recent years (0-8 ATS last 8 encounters) but I see that changing this week. With the bye week, the Rams shouldn’t be troubled by the cross-country trip and they are clearly the better team right now. The defense should contain the Giants ground game and their pass rushers should be able to get to Manning, Offensively, the Rams have done a great job of mixing the pass and run and the NY defense has been the victim of a league-worst time of possession by the offense. I look for Gurley and Goff to lead the team to a comfortable away win and the number is low enough to back this road favorite.

All but one of the Eagles games has produced at least 43 points and the one that didn’t finished in a 34-7 Eagles victory. The Broncos have been plagued by costly TOs (something Osweiler is familiar with in his career) and I look for the Eagles to make some big plays off of TOs. Wentz is playing terrific football and I think Denver can get some points via their passing game. The number is barely above 6 converted TDs and I expect this game to go over the number.

Buffalo has been one of the hotter teams in the AFC in recent weeks and it has been a solid betting team all season long ATS, but I do think that the Bills are going to have their hands full on Thursday night in a division matchup between two teams that are extremely familiar with one another. The Jets may continue to be snake bit with a SU loss at home, but that extra half point on the field goal spread right now makes New York a very attractive play in this game ATS.

Both of these teams come into this division matchup in need of a much better performance than the one they have put forth in their last two games, but more importantly, each one desperately need to stop the bleeding with a win. Denver is in tougher shape with its current injury situation and Kansas City is still a much better team overall. Lay the points and take the Chiefs to cover ATS.