NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

This is a key game for both clubs. The Chargers need to win to keep their wild card hopes alive while Jacksonville is in a race to win the AFC South and secure their first playoff berth since 2007. I like the matchup of the Jags’ running game vs. the Chargers defense and their secondary vs. the LA receivers. Jacksonville is only 1-2 at home this year but they won last week in convincing fashion. I look for them to make it 2 in a row and feel the number is low enough for them to get the cover.

Seattle finds itself in an almost must-win situation given the highly competitive playoff picture in the NFC. The Cardinals know they can keep their season alive with an upset this Thursday night, but I am not sure how far they can ride Adrian Peterson against a Seahawks’ defense that will be looking for redemption after letting last week’s game slip through the cracks. Go with the better overall team in this division tilt and lay the six points on the road with Seattle winning SU and ATS.

It is pretty obvious that both of these teams need a win on Monday night to keep their seasons from completely going in the tank, but barring a rare tie somebody has to win and somebody has to lose. Given Detroit’s current form on offense and Green Bay’s dilemma at quarterback, my ‘best bet’ pick is that neither team will look all that pretty in victory with the total staying UNDER the current 43-point line.

Both of these teams need to start the second half of the season on a much better note than how they each ended the first. The pressure is really dialed up on the Raiders given this team’s sky-high expectation level before the games started counting for real. Miami needs a quick fix for its offense and Cutler is not the answer. The quick pick for Sunday night’s matchup is the UNDER on the current 44-point total line with scoring points remaining at a premium for both teams.

While a bias can be leveraged on the Cardinals for recent successes against the 49ers, the acquisition of Garoppolo has shifted the public view of this contest. Be that San Francisco has looked outright awful in their last two contests, many see the Niners as a golden opportunity against an Arizona team that in its own right looks in very poor form.

It has been said once already and we will reiterate the fact that the 49ers have few selling points. The Niners are winless on the year and they are very simply a team that cannot be trusted with this low of a cushion, given the fact they have failed to cover loftier numbers in recent weeks. Arizona comes into this contest the fresher of the two and they will look to take advantage of a newcomer quarterback that still has to acclimate to the new system he is being inserted into. While the 49ers have tremendous upside moving forward, they will still have to undergo some growing pains. Whilst they do we will go ahead and spot the minimal points here in what will be a rebound win for the Cardinals.

Is there a more perfect time to take the Bengals? Probably not. The market opened with the Bengals as a minimal pooch which suggests that they are in position to win this week despite looking abysmal last week against an inferior opponent. As a result of the extensive action on the Jaguars, Bengals takers can approach this market now in two manners. They can take back an inflated Money Line and enhance their return or they can take advantage of an additional field goal afforded to them. The Jaguars are a team that remains winless at home this year and that is because they play in one of the most static environments in all of the NFL. While the Jaguars have made noticeable strides as a franchise, they are still prone for a few hiccups. This will likely be one of them.

Tennessee has four wins on the season and in three of those wins they rushed for 179 vs. Jacksonville, 195 vs. Seattle and 168 vs. Indianapolis. In their three losses they were held to fewer than 95 yards rushing. So, it doesn’t take a genius to realize that if the Titans can’t run they are very unlikely to come away with a win. First glance at the Ravens’ run defense statistics may have you thinking that won’t be a problem this week, but there is more to the story. The key to the Ravens run defense is having a healthy Brandon Williams on the defensive line. In the four games he has played in this season, Baltimore allowed their opponent fewer than 100 yards rushing in three of those contests with the only game that an opponent exceeded that coming in his first game back from injury. This should be a low scoring game decided by three points making the plus four on the road club a solid bet.

These teams are going in opposite directions as the Saints are rolling (all 5 wins by 8+ points). Brees is playing more relaxed as he knows the fate of the team is no longer squarely on his shoulders. The running game and defense are both pulling their weight and I like the home side to make it 6 in a row.

This matchup has been very unkind to LA in recent years (0-8 ATS last 8 encounters) but I see that changing this week. With the bye week, the Rams shouldn’t be troubled by the cross-country trip and they are clearly the better team right now. The defense should contain the Giants ground game and their pass rushers should be able to get to Manning, Offensively, the Rams have done a great job of mixing the pass and run and the NY defense has been the victim of a league-worst time of possession by the offense. I look for Gurley and Goff to lead the team to a comfortable away win and the number is low enough to back this road favorite.

All but one of the Eagles games has produced at least 43 points and the one that didn’t finished in a 34-7 Eagles victory. The Broncos have been plagued by costly TOs (something Osweiler is familiar with in his career) and I look for the Eagles to make some big plays off of TOs. Wentz is playing terrific football and I think Denver can get some points via their passing game. The number is barely above 6 converted TDs and I expect this game to go over the number.

Buffalo has been one of the hotter teams in the AFC in recent weeks and it has been a solid betting team all season long ATS, but I do think that the Bills are going to have their hands full on Thursday night in a division matchup between two teams that are extremely familiar with one another. The Jets may continue to be snake bit with a SU loss at home, but that extra half point on the field goal spread right now makes New York a very attractive play in this game ATS.

Both of these teams come into this division matchup in need of a much better performance than the one they have put forth in their last two games, but more importantly, each one desperately need to stop the bleeding with a win. Denver is in tougher shape with its current injury situation and Kansas City is still a much better team overall. Lay the points and take the Chiefs to cover ATS.

Detroit is well-rested and playing this game at home, but I do not have all that much confidence in its ability to slow this Steelers’ offense down enough to keep this game close. Pittsburgh has built some momentum in its last two games, especially with that earlier road win against the Chiefs. Bank on one of the best teams in the AFC to keep getting better with another win on Sunday both SU and ATS.

All of America bore witness to the Redskins’ decisive loss on Monday night and generally speaking whoever lost in the Monday Night match-up is a popular fade in the following week. This positions us ideally to back the Skins. This is especially true when Dallas looks to be in peak form after they pounded San Francisco. The two contrasting narratives surrounding both teams entering into this contest cultivates what we call an archetypal buy-low and sell-high scenario.

A few weeks ago, many questioned whether or not Dallas is going to repeat as NFC East Champion. After all, the Cowboys look to be in maligned form but they have conjured an opposite reaction on the heels of their most recent performance. However, beating up on San Francisco is nothing to brag about. The Niners are one of the lowest-quality teams in the NFL and pale in comparison to the competitive proficiency of Washington. Furthermore, rivalry games such as these bring the unexpected. You can be rest assured that the Redskins faithful will do everything it can to generate some home cooking and be a perpetual thorn in America’s Team side. Though the points certainly seem like an excellent play, Washington also warrants a look on the Money Line. With the market priced this low, the Redskins are primed to orchestrate an upset in the cozy confines of their own field.

The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 visits to Raymond James Stadium. They have the better defense and I think that unit will contain the Buccaneers while Newton and the offense should bounce back against a defense that gives up 408.5 yards of offense per game. Carolina is even getting 2 points and I look for them to get their 4th road win of the year this Sunday.

Philadelphia and San Francisco at this point will be subjected to two distinct phenomenon that are routinely found in all of sports betting. For Philadelphia, the fact they have been a cash cow all season long and own the best record in the NFL subjects their takers to a hidden premium to take action on them. Though it does not appear so given their success, Philadelphia is likely throwing extra weight on backers in this market especially since it aligns perfectly with what teams like San Francisco typically undergo.

The 49ers have few selling points. The Niners are winless on the year and they were absolutely smacked last week. Generally, no one is going to want a part of San Fran as a result. In many cases, the points that can be taken back with the Gold Rush are enhanced to entice action. That is why the Niners are 4-3 ATS despite being without a win on the year. When you factor in that Philadelphia handled Washington convincingly for primetime national audiences on Monday Night, a reaction will be created and many will still lay the lumber. However, what we have in front of us here is a quality opportunity to fade the public on a likely overvalued Eagles team. Take the points.

The Bears have won two of QB Mitch Trubinsky’s starts, but he’s been more of a game manager with extremely weak statistics. On the season the rookie signal caller has completed a paltry 50% of his passes for 348 yards throwing two touchdown passes to go with one interception. Chicago wins on defense and when they haven’t had a high turnover number they have held the opposition to 23 or fewer points in those five games. The Saints have allowed 22 points per game overall this season and while they have allowed a ridiculous 37 points per game at home this season, that number is skewed. They have just two home games in this campaign, with the first game coming in Week 2 against the Patriots exploited an inexperienced secondary for 436 passing yards and 36 points. In the other home game, a turnover fest against Detroit in Week 6, New Orleans held a 45-10 lead past the halfway mark in the third quarter before some prevent defense combined with TDs on a punt return and a two-yard Pick 6 allowed the Lions to put 28 meaningless points. Oh, and that inexperienced secondary I mentioned earlier, they’ve allowed a total of 161 passing yards per game over their last four included in that number is an inflated 281 to Detroit.

Oakland is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups in this series and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 visits. Carr needed to play big against the Chiefs to end a 4-game losing streak and he delivered. He and Cooper finally got back on the same page and together with Crabtree and Cook, the ‘3 Cs’ are a handful for any secondary. Taylor is hamstrung by a weak receiving corps and the running game hasn’t been the force it was in 2015 and 2016. The Raiders are a real threat to win this game outright plus they are getting 3 points. I think recent history will repeat itself and that Oakland will leave the Queen City with another victory.

Four of the Colts losses this season have been by 37, 28, 14 and 27 points as they rarely have been competitive. Their only 2 wins have come against the remaining 2 winless teams in the NFL (CLE, SF). Cincinnati still has playoff aspirations but they need to win this game before embarking on a 3-game road trip. Indianapolis is dealing with several injuries and there also appears to be dissension in the locker room. While the number is big, I feel the Bengals can get well in a huge way this week against an undermanned and uninspired team.

With the way that the Vikings are playing defense right now, my first thought was to play the UNDER. However, the Browns are beat up on defense and they allowed three of their last five opponents to surpass 30 points in better health. Add in that Cleveland QB Deshone Kizer has thrown 11 interceptions this year and the total number may be too low. What does look appealing is the point spread line. Sure, it’s huge needing a winning margin of a converted touchdown plus a field goal to get the money, but the Browns have been beaten soundly by the Ravens (24-10), Bengals (31-7) and the Texans (33-16). The main thing that those three teams have in common is the ability to play defense.