NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

We give New Orleans our handicapping checkmarks in the QB comparison and with the better running game. And while New York might own the better defense overall, the Saints are slightly better against the run. Also, New Orleans owns the better performance against common opponents and, as it clings to hopes of making ground in that NFC South race, has more to play for. We like the Saints for Sunday, minus the points.

Tampa Bay is out-rushing opponents this season by a per-game margin of 137-117; Las Vegas is getting out-rushed 115-78. So, we expect the Bucs to win the ground battle, the turnover battle, and the time of possession. And that’s how you win games and cover spreads in the NFL. We’ll take Tampa minus the points.

⭐️⭐️⭐️ Over 49 (-110)
- Both teams averaging 27+ PPG with full-strength offenses
- Improved scoring efficiency with Tua and Kupp/Nacua healthy

⭐️⭐️ Rams -2.5 (-115)
- Full-strength offense in sync, with the line upgrade helping to counter Miami’s defensive pressure
- Home vs. road scoring split favors Rams in a close spread

⭐️ First Half Over 24 (-110)
- Both teams have shown stronger early-game efficiency with key playmakers back
- Rams averaging 13.5 first-half points in recent games

Projected Score:

Rams 27, Dolphins 24

Both teams have prolific offenses and struggling pass defenses, setting up ideal conditions for a high-scoring game. Baltimore’s fourth-quarter defensive struggles and Cincinnati’s strong road offense further support the over as the best pick for this AFC North showdown.

With a motivated Ravens team coming off a loss and the addition of Diontae Johnson to the offense, Baltimore looks well-positioned to cover the spread. Their high-powered offense, combined with Denver’s challenge of matching points on the road, gives the Ravens an edge in this matchup. While Denver’s defense has been efficient at limiting scoring, Baltimore’s balanced attack should be able to find success through both the air and ground. Expect Baltimore to control the tempo and use their offensive depth to secure a decisive home win and cover.

Tua’s return and Miami’s defensive edge against the pass make the Dolphins a strong pick at -4.5. Arizona’s inconsistencies on offense, particularly through the air, could make it challenging for them to keep pace if Miami takes an early lead. Miami’s ability to control both the tempo and field position favors them in this matchup. Arizona will need to lean on their rushing prowess to stay competitive, but Miami’s balanced attack and home-field advantage should carry them through.

Kansas City gutted out a very tough road victory last weekend in Buffalo, while Baltimore had a relatively easy time with Houston. That means a lot heading into a game like this. Also, we expect the Ravens to win the ground battle here, as they’ve already done 14 times this season, which is always a good step toward covering a spread. Baltimore’s been great against good teams this season and played 50 YPG better against common foes. We like the Ravens, minus the points.

Expect an exciting and competitive game, with the Buccaneers having a chance to cover the spread or potentially even secure an upset victory.

Houstons cost us money the last two weeks, not because we don't think they're a good team; we just thought the Colts and Browns, with advantages in the running games, would win. And were thinking along the same lines for this game. Baltimore averages 157 YPG on the ground, which allows them to control the clock and limit turnovers. And look what the Ravens did to teams like the Lions, Seahawks, 49ers, and Dolphins this season: average margin of victory - four touchdowns. And you know Jackson would love to put an end to his playoff slump. We had good luck betting on Baltimore this season and were giving the points for Saturday.

Momentum means a ton at this point in the season, and Philly's got none. Something clicked in the wrong direction with this team. Then again, the Eagles won a whole bunch of close games over the last two seasons - maybe they just weren't that good. Anyway, now they're really banged up at some key positions. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is playing winning ball as of late, getting good QB play and some good defense. These teams met back in Week 3 of this season, but Tampa is a better team now than it was that night, while the Eagles are certainly not the same. We like the Bucs for the win on Monday night.

Cleveland's really found something with Flacco on offense and the defense ranks No. 1. Also, we expect the Browns to win the ground battle in this game and teams that out-rush their opponents in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We can't say enough about Coach Ryans and QB Stroud but we just believe Cleveland is the better team in this match-up. We're betting the Browns Saturday.

This match-up screams to take the total. Both squads' lack of scoring in Week 17 drove this line down making this a logical bet.

Buffalo is playing the better ball as of late. The Bills are also by far the healthier team in this match-up. And Buffalo outplayed Miami bigly earlier this season. We’re betting on the Bills Sunday night.

With RB Taylor back in action, we expect Indianapolis to win the ground battle in this game. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Colts out-played Houston earlier this season and own the edge in the recent rivalry. We like Indy for Saturday night, for the win.

This is a tough call on the point spread line with the Bears’ beat up at the wideout position. Starting WR Darnell Mooney is out, and fellow starter DJ Moore might not be at 100% with a high ankle sprain. Defensively they are healthy and should be able to snuff out the Falcons run game. The forecast calls for inclement weather rain, snow and wind around 11 MPH.

We picked the Vikings last week against Detroit because they've been playing close games. They were catching three points, and we thought Mullens could do the job. And he threw for over 400 yards. He also threw four interceptions. Actually, though, we won't be surprised if Hall does a good job this Sunday. Our pick on this game really comes down to defense; Minnesota has one, Green Bay doesn't. We like the Vikes for Sunday night.

After stinking last week, we'd normally consider Denver a good candidate for a bounce-back performance this week. However, the Broncos' defense concerns us. Also, Denvers been out-gained five of its last seven times. Meanwhile, New England has lost a bunch of close games this season and has out-gained four of its last five opponents. Also, these teams' performances against common opponents are very close. And Zappe seems to give the Patriots at least a little spark. Can New England score 21 points on Sunday? Yes, we believe they can. We like the Patriots, plus the points.

The Bills are favored, with key advantages on both sides of the ball. However, Buffalo's road performance this season and the possibility of a spirited performance from the Chargers with a new coach have me skipping the spread bet. The total is where my money is landing. The Bills' defense has looked better of late after getting some of their injured players back, and the remaining fill-ins are starting to gel. The LAC receiving corps is decimated, and Easton Stick is a huge step down from Justin Herbert.

Los Angeles is playing the better ball as of late. Also, the Rams own the better quarterback, the better running game - they’re averaging 168 YPG on the ground their last four times out - and the better run defense. Plus, they’re not traveling two time zones West on a short week. We like LA for Thursday night, minus the points.

Baltimore, with its superior quarterback, offense, and defense, also outperformed Jacksonville in their last encounter, despite the final score. With the game on the road, the spread is more attractive. Our betting pick is on Baltimore to cover the spread on Sunday night.