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Kansas City gutted out a very tough road victory last weekend in Buffalo, while Baltimore had a relatively easy time with Houston. That means a lot heading into a game like this. Also, we expect the Ravens to win the ground battle here, as they’ve already done 14 times this season, which is always a good step toward covering a spread. Baltimore’s been great against good teams this season and played 50 YPG better against common foes. We like the Ravens, minus the points.
Expect an exciting and competitive game, with the Buccaneers having a chance to cover the spread or potentially even secure an upset victory.
Houstons cost us money the last two weeks, not because we don't think they're a good team; we just thought the Colts and Browns, with advantages in the running games, would win. And were thinking along the same lines for this game. Baltimore averages 157 YPG on the ground, which allows them to control the clock and limit turnovers. And look what the Ravens did to teams like the Lions, Seahawks, 49ers, and Dolphins this season: average margin of victory - four touchdowns. And you know Jackson would love to put an end to his playoff slump. We had good luck betting on Baltimore this season and were giving the points for Saturday.
Momentum means a ton at this point in the season, and Philly's got none. Something clicked in the wrong direction with this team. Then again, the Eagles won a whole bunch of close games over the last two seasons - maybe they just weren't that good. Anyway, now they're really banged up at some key positions. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is playing winning ball as of late, getting good QB play and some good defense. These teams met back in Week 3 of this season, but Tampa is a better team now than it was that night, while the Eagles are certainly not the same. We like the Bucs for the win on Monday night.
Cleveland's really found something with Flacco on offense and the defense ranks No. 1. Also, we expect the Browns to win the ground battle in this game and teams that out-rush their opponents in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We can't say enough about Coach Ryans and QB Stroud but we just believe Cleveland is the better team in this match-up. We're betting the Browns Saturday.
This match-up screams to take the total. Both squads' lack of scoring in Week 17 drove this line down making this a logical bet.
Buffalo is playing the better ball as of late. The Bills are also by far the healthier team in this match-up. And Buffalo outplayed Miami bigly earlier this season. We’re betting on the Bills Sunday night.
With RB Taylor back in action, we expect Indianapolis to win the ground battle in this game. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Colts out-played Houston earlier this season and own the edge in the recent rivalry. We like Indy for Saturday night, for the win.
This is a tough call on the point spread line with the Bears’ beat up at the wideout position. Starting WR Darnell Mooney is out, and fellow starter DJ Moore might not be at 100% with a high ankle sprain. Defensively they are healthy and should be able to snuff out the Falcons run game. The forecast calls for inclement weather rain, snow and wind around 11 MPH.
We picked the Vikings last week against Detroit because they've been playing close games. They were catching three points, and we thought Mullens could do the job. And he threw for over 400 yards. He also threw four interceptions. Actually, though, we won't be surprised if Hall does a good job this Sunday. Our pick on this game really comes down to defense; Minnesota has one, Green Bay doesn't. We like the Vikes for Sunday night.
After stinking last week, we'd normally consider Denver a good candidate for a bounce-back performance this week. However, the Broncos' defense concerns us. Also, Denvers been out-gained five of its last seven times. Meanwhile, New England has lost a bunch of close games this season and has out-gained four of its last five opponents. Also, these teams' performances against common opponents are very close. And Zappe seems to give the Patriots at least a little spark. Can New England score 21 points on Sunday? Yes, we believe they can. We like the Patriots, plus the points.
The Bills are favored, with key advantages on both sides of the ball. However, Buffalo's road performance this season and the possibility of a spirited performance from the Chargers with a new coach have me skipping the spread bet. The total is where my money is landing. The Bills' defense has looked better of late after getting some of their injured players back, and the remaining fill-ins are starting to gel. The LAC receiving corps is decimated, and Easton Stick is a huge step down from Justin Herbert.
Los Angeles is playing the better ball as of late. Also, the Rams own the better quarterback, the better running game - they’re averaging 168 YPG on the ground their last four times out - and the better run defense. Plus, they’re not traveling two time zones West on a short week. We like LA for Thursday night, minus the points.
Baltimore, with its superior quarterback, offense, and defense, also outperformed Jacksonville in their last encounter, despite the final score. With the game on the road, the spread is more attractive. Our betting pick is on Baltimore to cover the spread on Sunday night.
In a battle of back-up QB’s the most important factor is probably the ability to run the ball. We expect Los Angeles to produce more on the ground than Las Vegas. And teams that out-rush their opponents in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Chargers out-played the Raiders earlier this season, and Herbert didn’t really have to do much. We like Los Angeles for Thursday night, for the win on the money line.
Given these factors, the Titans have a viable path to covering the spread against the Dolphins. Their ability to keep games close on the road (not all blowouts, combined with potential strategic advantages due to Miami's injuries and untested defense against stronger teams, positions Tennessee as a capable underdog in this matchup.
Given the Bears' recent defensive form and home-field advantage, along with the potential for turnovers and the motivation to perform well against a division rival, there are solid reasons to believe the Bears can cover the spread against the Detroit Lions.
Philadelphia is coming off a poor performance last time out, albeit against a darn good team. Normally, we would consider the Eagles good candidates for a bounce-back effort next time out. However, we have some concerns about this team, such as its ability to run the ball without the quarterback and on defense.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank 5th in the League in total offense and, even with last week’s numbers, 3rd in total defense. Also, Dallas owns the better performance against common opponents, and they basically out-played the Eagles five weeks ago. We like the Cowboys for Sunday night.
Pittsburgh’s playing to stay in the playoff race, while New England is basically half a team. Also, we give the Steelers the edge in the QB match-up with Trubisky over Zappe. Plus, Pittsburgh’s got playmaker TJ Watt on defense. And the Steelers might be primed for a bounce-back effort this week following a poor performance last week. We’re playing Pittsburgh on Thursday night, minus the points.
Kansas City gets the check-mark at QB, although we like Love and on defense. Also, the Chiefs own a much better performance against common opponents. Also, KC is the healthier squad. How’s Green Bay going to run the ball? And playing on the road, keep the line on this game below seven. We like Kansas City for Sunday night, minus the points.
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