The AFC East division champion will be crowned when the 11-5 Dolphins host the 10-6 Bills for the final game of the NFL’s regular season Sunday night.

Miami is already in the playoffs, so a loss isn’t death. Buffalo, on the other hand, is not, although it could be by the time this game kicks off.

Ultimately, these teams are fighting for the right to open the upcoming AFC playoffs at home and avoid Baltimore until absolutely necessary.

The Bills destroyed the Dolphins earlier this season up at Orchard Park. Who do we like for our free NFL betting pick?

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NFL Betting Odds

The Week 18 NFL betting market opened Buffalo at -2.5 for Sunday night, with an over/under of right around 50. Early betting action dipped that total to 48.5.

Bills Betting Preview

Buffalo brings a four-game winning streak into Sunday night after beating New England last Sunday 27-21. The Bills, favored by 14 points, fell behind 7-0 when they allowed the Patriots to return the opening kick-off for a touchdown. But Buffalo scored the next 20 points and later had the spread pushed at 27-13. The Bills hung on to win but came up short ATS.

Buffalo actually got out-gained by New England 294-281 but won the turnover battle 4-1, creating a +20 points differential.

The Bills have now out-rushed eight of their last nine opponents.

Back in late November, Buffalo blew a game at Philadelphia to fall to 6-6 on the season and looked like they might be in trouble. But they then out-played Kansas City and Dallas, then held off the Chargers and Patriots.

At 10-6 overall, the Bills are not yet in the playoffs. However, they could be by the time this game kicks off if Pittsburgh loses to Baltimore or if Jacksonville loses to Tennessee earlier on Sunday.

And thanks to a win over Miami earlier this season, Buffalo owns the head-to-head tie-breaker on the Dolphins. A season sweep gives them the division title.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Meanwhile Miami is looking to bounce back this week after getting mauled at Baltimore last Sunday 56-19. The Dolphins actually scored the first seven points of the game and only trailed 14-13 late into the second quarter. But Miami gave up two quick Ravens scores to trail 28-13 into the locker room, then gave up the first seven points of the second half, and it only got worse from there.

The Dolphins gave up 491 yards of Baltimore's offense and turned the ball over three times.

Prior to last week, though, Miami had out-gained seven of its previous eight opponents and out-rushed six of its previous eight foes.

Two weeks ago, the Dolphins beat Dallas 22-20. Three weeks ago, Miami blanked the Jets 30-0. In fact, if the Dolphins hadn’t blown that game against Tennessee a month ago, they would have carried a six-game winning streak into last week.

At 11-5 overall, Miami is already in the playoffs. With a win Sunday, the Dolphins will be the No. 2 seed in the AFC. But a loss would drop them to the No. 6 spot and on the road, probably at Kansas City, to open the playoffs.

On the injury front Miami lists seven starters on offense, including RB Mostert and WR’s Hill and Waddle, plus four starters on defense, as questionable for Sunday night. And that’s not to mention they lost LB Chubb for the season to injury last week.

Over on the other sideline Buffalo is relatively healthy for a team headed into Week 18.

Bills-Dolphins Recent History

Buffalo owns this rivalry as of late, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings outright, including a wild-card victory last January. The Bills are only 5-5-1 ATS over that run, favored by too much too often.

Back in October, Buffalo took the first meeting between these teams this season 48-20 up at Orchard Park. That game was tied at 14-14 in the second quarter until the Bills finished with a 34-6 run.

That game flew over a total of 52.

NFL Betting Trends

Home dogs are 41-48 ATS in the NFL this season.

Buffalo with Allen at QB is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS against Miami with Tagovailoa at QB.

Totals Report

• The Unders are 10-6 in Bills games this season, averaging 46 total points.
• The Overs are 9-7 in Dolphins games, averaging 53 points.
• The Unders are 138-118 in the NFL this season.
• The Overs are 7-3 over the last ten meetings between these teams.