The Kansas City Chiefs chase everlasting NFL glory when they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX (that’s 59, for all you non-Romans out there) Sunday evening in New Orleans. Kansas City is trying to do something that’s never been done; win a third straight Super Bowl title. Eight other teams won back-to-back Super Bowls; none of them even made it back to the Big Game that third season. So the Chiefs are already one-up on all past potential three-peaters. Meanwhile Philadelphia is playing in the Super Bowl for the third time in the last eight seasons, seeking its second Lombardi Trophy; the Eagles won Super Bowl LII back in 2017, then lost Super Bowl LVII to these Chiefs two seasons ago. The line on this game indicates it should play close. Who do we like on the side and total for our free Super Bowl LIX betting picks?

Super Bowl Betting Odds

The Super Bowl LIX betting market opened Kansas City at -1.5 over Philadelphia, with an over/under of right around 49. Early betting action shaved spread to -1.

Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview

Kansas City reached this Super Bowl by beating Buffalo in the AFC championship game two weeks ago, 32-29. The Chiefs drove their first possession of the day 90 yards to a touchdown and led most of the way. Later, with the score tied at 29-29, Kansas City drove 51 yards to a go-ahead field goal, then secured victory with a defensive stop and two first downs that ran the last two minutes off the clock. KC actually got out-gained and out-rushed by Buffalo and lost both the turnover battle and time of possession. They just won the game. The Chiefs opened their postseason with a 23-14 divisional-round victory over Houston. Kansas City also got beat on the stat sheet that day and yet never trailed and never seemed like they were in any big danger. KC played 15-2 during the regular season, and one of the games they lost was a totally meaningless season finale in Denver. So over the last three seasons the Chiefs are 48-10 in games that actually mattered. Meanwhile Philadelphia reached this Super Bowl by blasting Washington in the NFC championship game two weeks ago 55-23. The Eagles led that game 27-15 at the half, let the Commanders get within 34-23 in the third quarter but tacked on three touchdowns from there to secure the win and the cover at -6. Philly racked up 459 yards of total offense on Washington and won the turnover battle 4-0. The Eagles began their playoff run with a 22-10 wild-card win over Green Bay, then beat the Rams in the divisional round 28-22. Philadelphia only started 2-2 this season, then won 10 games in a row. Later, basically locked into their playoff seeding, the Eagles rested many starters for their season finale against the Giants and still won the game. 

By the Numbers

Kansas City averaged 328 ypg on offense this season, 105 rushing. Defensively, the Chiefs allowed 321 ypg, 102 rushing. This while playing what Sagarin (sagarin.com) ranked as the 23rd-toughest schedule in the League. Philadelphia averaged 367 ypg on offense, 179 on the ground, and held opponents to a League-low 278 ypg, 104 on the ground. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 30 schedule.

Common Opponents

These teams played seven common opponents this season, members of the AFC North and NFC South. Kansas City played those foes to 8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS, and +46 ypg, Philadelphia to 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, and +52 ypg.

Chiefs-Eagles Recent History

These teams met most famously two seasons ago, that 38-35 Kansas City victory in the Super Bowl. They then met most recently in November of last season, a 21-17 Philadelphia win at Arrowhead Stadium. The biggest difference between that most recent meeting and Sunday’s game, of course, is Philly’s addition of RB Saquon Barkley. And that Chiefs run defense has been a little iffy over the last month-plus.

Totals Report

• The unders played 10-7 in Chiefs games this season, which averaged 42 points.
• The unders played 10-7 in Eagles games, which averaged 45 points.