This is an ugly game matching two teams that are a combined 24-50 on the season. That said, both teams are playing better in recent games, but with the home line being offered up at less than a basket, the home side appears to hold the most value. I’m not a big trend guy, but the home side has won the last five in this series. Atlanta has played tough in recent games on the road, but I look for Phoenix to come out focused after their disaster against Philly.

The Spurs have been a perpetual top-team in the Western Conference whilst New York has been characterized as a team with wasted potential and exaggerated expectations. These narratives alone make San Antonio an enticing choice. However, if there is one thing we could deduce it is that the Knicks are not a team that should be given points at home given their portfolio at the World’s Most Famous Arena this season. Sure, the last Knicks outing on Christmas Day in New York resulted in a bitter defeat against the Philadelphia 76ers but previously the Knicks produced some eyebrow-raising results against Oklahoma City and Boston. As a result of those outcomes, they were likely overvalued heading into the aforementioned contest hosting Philly. However, now the opposite is true because they are hosting one of the blue bloods of the NBA. Take the points.

We have said it once and we will say it again, when you back the Raptors in the Air Canada Centre you will incur a premium to do so. This creates a true value situation because the invader is not by any means intimidated of the venue. The fact that Toronto covered a lofty line in their preceding contest at this location only precipitates inflated numbers further. Milwaukee has plenty of mojo after pulling off the upset in the Chesapeake on Friday night. In terms of comparability, OKC is just as loud, rowdy, and in-your-face as the Air Canada Centre so you can expect the Deers to come to play.

This market exemplifies what bettors can expect when they look to book a team like Boston on its own court. Essentially, you pay a premium to back the Celtics when they are at home because they are so strong there. This situation is only enhanced by the presence of the Nets who have been in perpetual sell mode in recent campaigns. Given the nature of this contest on the holiday it falls on, Boston can be looking to simply get this game over with and move on to New Year’s Eve celebrations. This opens the door for Brooklyn to not only steal a cover here but perhaps a win outright. Teams like Brooklyn are also prone to take back an inflated price tag by virtue of the fact they are hard to team to sell otherwise. When you factor in these three variables, the Nets are a true value play. Grab the points.

As a whole, the Magic defense remains one of the worst in the league across the board, as they give up an average of 110.2 points per game (28th in the NBA). This in itself makes the Over an attractive option given the low hanging fruit of the point spread. However, Orlando and Miami are both among the worst in the league in defending against the three-pointer specifically. The two teams collectively sit at 26th and 28th in the NBA in opponent three-point field goal percentage. In essence, this game has all the makings of being an offensive barnburner if both teams’ snipers get a hot hand. Given the extra cushion we have been given by heavy steam coming in on the Under, there is enhanced equity now in going the other way.

As we have championed previously, when you back the Raptors in the Air Canada Centre you will pay to do so. Given the fact Toronto has been virtually unbeatable in the Great White North, you can rest assured this is gospel. When the Raps are hosting one of the East’s worst teams which a poor road record, this circumstance is magnified. Very simply, the point spread is hyper-inflated and we can take advantage of a clear-cut overlay. Take the points.

Certainly, defense isn’t a strength for Philadelphia with the 25th ranked scoring defense, and they have allowed 8 of their last 210 opponents to score 100 or more points in regulation. However, they catch a Portland team that hasn’t played since the 23rd and may be a little rusty. The Trail Blazers haven’t actually been lighting up the scoreboard lately hitting triple digits in one of their last six.

Milwaukee looks like an easy play here with the home court, additional rest, and Minnesota coming in off an overtime game last night. However, the quality on this T-Wolves team coupled with the price here makes Minnesota a savory play in itself. It is an understatement to declare that this Minnesota team that Milwaukee is facing is a far different kind of animal compared to years’ past. In the pre-season, the T-Wolves loaded up with the addition of sixth-man Jamal Crawford and star shooter Jimmy Butler. In addition, point man Jeff Teague was also acquired to foster the young talent that this outfit already features in its ranks. The team is appearing to gel and we will get aboard before the league begins to catch up to the T-Wolves. Minnesota outright gets the call.

What resonates with us in this market is the abrupt shift in how these two teams were priced compared to the encounter 18 days ago. Chicago was a 3.5-point dog at home when they hosted the Knicks in the aforementioned contest. Now, they were asked to spot a bucket. Overall from the close of the previous market to the open of this spot, the swing is 5.5 points. That is quite significant.

However, given the results of both teams as of recent some may expect this line to actually be higher which makes the Bulls look deceptively good. Whilst Chicago may finally be in line to be more appropriately priced as the Knicks never had business spotting road points to begin with, the market reveals little faith in Chicago and sets up takers potentially for a hard fall. New York is in a prime spot to pull off an upset. We’ll trade away the bucket and take the Knicks on the Money Line.

Toronto is a positive 11-8 straight up and against the spread on the road, but they’re in an unfavorable back to back spot with travel tonight after playing in Dallas yesterday. The Raptors shooting was ice-cold in that game and while they can turn that around today, they’re facing a team that has been playing with a lot of confidence. The Thunder have strung together five straight wins beating some strong clubs along the way and with the line a manageable four points are our play.

Nevertheless, the discussion surrounding the Sixers is their stark improvement as an outfit compared to years past. Many cite the renaissance of the 76ers being chalked up to the addition of young talent by virtue of favorable drafting positions. However, this could be null and void in this affair as the Knicks are the best in the league in defensive rebounds at 40.2 boards per game. Second chances are hard to come by against this outfit. The physical presence of the Knicks combined with home court advantage makes them a tough team to fade in this spot. Furthermore, the Knicks will have an extra day of rest to prepare for this contest and not be forced to travel. This is also another intangible that gives New York a huge competitive edge in this affair. Be that as it may with limited lumber to spot, the Knicks are a great play here at what is a very economical price.

Contrary to what has been seen so far, last night’s Bucks win in Milwaukee can foster a reaction for the general public to back the Bucks yet again. Since Milwaukee was able to find ways to win with its premium personnel, the assumption here is that they will be able to rinse, wash, and repeat tonight in the Queen City. However, emotional wins like last night’s escapade often set up the team in question to come in flat in their follow-up. When said follow-up comes against the very same team but now away from home in an unfriendly environment, the prospect of a loss is that much greater. We’ll spot the points here.

The Milwaukee victory over Cleveland is undoubtedly bound to stir an overreaction by itself. When you couple the Bucks playing this one at home against a team that was defeated handily on its own court, you can expect the public to generate a likely overlay. This is where we step in and take advantage of a prime fade opportunity. As a part of the mantra in buying low and selling high, the Hornets are likely taking back even more points by virtue of the fact they have also struggled mightily on the road. Though Milwaukee owns quite an impressive win it allows Charlotte to come in off the radar and set up the Deers for a huge let-down after an enormous win. Scoff up the points.

Laying the lumber, we see Cleveland asked to spot is often an ill-advised practice. However, in this fleeting occasion it is appropriate. The Cavaliers defeated this outfit by 22 on its own court just 17 days ago now its asked to spot half that number on its own court. Given the fact we would expect to pay a premium to typically back Cleveland on its own court, this might be one of the few scenarios where we can exploit home court advantage at a reduced price. The Bulls are riding the hot hand whilst the Cavs just lost, this in itself sells the upset factor and points and also cultivates an overreaction on the underdog. Perfect time to sell on Chicago.

This market typifies what bettors can expect when they desire to book a team like Boston on its own court. Essentially, you pay a premium to back the Celtics when they are at home. There is no other rationale as to why the price here on Boston is so high, given the fact the Heat own the most recent win in this series. Be that as it may, some will argue that perhaps Boston was overlooking Miami in the last endeavor. However, the public in that market was all over Boston when it was spotting low-hanging fruit as a road favorite to Miami. In November, the Heat were taking back 1.5 points and won by six. Now, a month later this same team is taking by 6.5 more points. We have to like that position given the fact Miami will enter this affair with a bit more jazz in their step because they know they can beat this very team. Grab the inflated points.

The match-up is one that bills the present versus the future as the game’s greatest player today LeBron James will square off with the superstar of tomorrow, the “Greek Freak” Giannis Antetkuonmpo. Despite all of the impeccable performances Cleveland has curated as of recent combined with Milwaukee’s recent losing streak, this market opened as a pick-em. This speaks volumes to us because under most other circumstances we would actually have seen Milwaukee priced as a favorite out of the gate but the variables predicated otherwise. Cleveland’s stock is through the ceiling whilst the Bucks is in a trough. Nevertheless, the fact remains that Milwaukee plays a different blend of basketball at home and are never an easy out in the Bradley Center. Though Cleveland is the better team on paper and in superior form, the market has made it clear that this fixture is set up to be a bump in the road for King James and his merry men. We’ll go ahead and take Milwaukee outright with the upset.

If it isn’t broken we won’t fix it. Once again, we find the Bulls will tremendous value in this market as they have been a cash cow at home as of late. This is only enhanced further with playing host to a Philadelphia team that is undoubtedly still beleaguered from back-to-back overtime games. Given the ingredients, we like the spot here for the Bulls with momentum also resting in their favor. Not too long ago, there was a time where takers could never dream of Philadelphia spotting points on the road because they were regarded as one of the worst teams in the NBA. Now, the Bulls with a renowned home court advantage in Chicago are taking back a tag. The price dictates the play here. However, Chicago once again may not just cover but win outright. Thus, the Bulls get the call on the Money Line in this fixture yet again.

Given the offensive nature of this contest, the points are an asset to this scenario. Given the fact the Pacers are below .500 on the road this year, it is not beyond reason that the Nets can pull an upset here. The Pacers own the seventh-ranked scoring offense (108.1 ppg) whilst the Nets own the tenth-ranked league-wide with 107.4 points per game. Chances are scoring will be at an optimum. Nevertheless, Brooklyn will have more mojo given the location of this contest. The Pacers are usually just a cold night away from being buried given their catalytic approach to the game. The Brooklyn faithful will be instrumental in throwing off their game, in this one. Nets on the Money Line get the call.

The most recent result in this game is one that favors the Clippers by extraordinary proportions. We mentioned the late rally that the Clippers nearly pulled off in the Staples Center. Though Lob City came up short, you can rest assured they were licking their chops to meet this Miami team again. On the contrary, the Heat might be a bit shook given the good fortune that was required for them to get of the City of Angels alive.

There is little doubt that the loss of former point man Chris Paul has significantly affected this outfit. In addition, yet another injury to star forward Blake Griffin has changed the dynamics of the campaign as well. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, the Clippers have been bitten by the injury bug across the board as they have also been without the services of point man Patrick Beverley and shooter Danilo Gallinari. Nevertheless, the heavy public hankering to spot the points would suggest that the Heat look too easy here and generally when this is the case, the figure is most certainly a trap. Take the points.

Many will look at this market and find it hard to believe that Philadelphia is favored against the Thunder. After all, look at who is on Oklahoma City’s roster and lest us forget the modus operandi of this Philly team overall. The fact remains, adding Carmelo Anthony and Paul George to the Thunder roster has so far been a failed experiment. However, the young talent on Philadelphia forming chemistry more with each game they play cannot be overlooked.