New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles Free Super Bowl Point Spread Pick - Odds Analysis

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New England reached their 3rd Super Bowl in the last 4 years with a come-from-behind 24-20 victory over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game. Philadelphia will be making their 3rd Super Bowl appearance after a convincing 38-7 destruction of Minnesota in the NFC Championship Game. These two teams last met in 2015 with the Eagles prevailing 35-28. They also met in the Super Bowl following the 2004 season with the Patriots escaping with a 24-21 victory.
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New England used the passing game to come back vs. the Jaguars but they were fairly balanced in their play calls (32 rushes, 38 passes). That type of balance may be harder to come by this weekend as Philly led the NFL in run defense (79.2 ypg) this year and shut down both the Falcons and Vikings in the playoffs. RB Dion Lewis has assumed the lead back role but NE was kept in check by the Jaguars (19 carries, 46 yards). The Pats are one of the few teams in the league that can still move the ball effectively even when their ground game is stopped. Whereas most teams generally lose when they attempt 45-50 passes in a game, New England frequently wins in that scenario. I don’t expect the Pats to run the ball with any type of consistency but that may not matter in the end. Brady shrugged off the stitches in his hand to go 26-38 for 290 yards and 2 scores against the Jaguars despite losing TE Rob Gronkowski late in the 1st half with a concussion. Gronk should be available for this contest. Brady made good use of his wideouts as WR Brandin Cooks caught 6 passes for 100 yards and drew some big pass interference calls while WR Danny Amendola caught 7 targets for 84 yards and 2 TDs. The Eagles totally shut down Minnesota and returned one of their two interceptions for a TD. While they generated only one sack, they applied consistent pressure on QB Case Keenum. They also have DE Chris Long on the roster and he should help the defense as he was a member of the Patriots last year. The defense has allowed 7, 10, 6 and 19 points over their last four games and while New England presents a huge challenge, this defense has been playing at a very high level despite some key injuries. A player to watch is DT Fletcher Cox. The All Pro is stout in the middle against the run but can also get pressure up the middle on passing downs, one of the few things that have bothered Brady in the past.
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The Eagles got a career game out of QB Nick Foles two weeks ago in the win over the Vikings. He finished 26-33 for 352 yards and 3 TD passes. His WRs came up big as Torrey Smith, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor combined for 13 catches, 213 yards and 3 TDs. TE Zach Ertz contributed 8 receptions for 93 yards. The Patriots have had some trouble with strong passing games and this group should be able to make plays through the air. The presence of Ertz means SS Patrick Chung can’t afford to play too close to the line in an effort to stop the running game. The Pats gave up 273 passing yards to Jacksonville, a team not noted for their strong passing game. They are more susceptible to giving up big plays earlier in the game as HC Bill Belichick has proven to be a master at making halftime adjustments. The Philadelphia running game has taken off since the in-season acquisition of RB Jay Ajayi. He ran for 73 yards on 18 carries against Minnesota and also added 3 catches for 26 yards. RB LeGarrette Blount, another ex-Pat, can still get the tough yards inside and knows this defense well. New England’s run defense has been suspect all season as they allowed 4.7 ypc, one of the highest averages in the league. Rookie RB Corey Clement led the team with 4 rushing TDs and will also get some carries in this contest. HC Doug Pederson has done a great job of mixing up the run and the pass but faces a big challenge going against Belichick and DC Matt Patricia. The biggest key about the Eagles offense is how well Foles plays. Other than a 6-0 loss to Dallas in a meaningless Week 17 game, he is 4-0 in games that count. New England is famous for making opponents one dimensional but Foles just has to keep his poise and make the plays that are there. Their ability to run the ball means the Patriots can’t key on one phase of the offense.
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