Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles NFC Championship Pick - Odds Analysis

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Minnesota used a 61-yard TD pass to shock New Orleans (and everybody else) on the last play of the game last Sunday to win 29-24 and advance to the championship game. Philadelphia had a strong defensive showing to upend Atlanta 15-10 last Saturday. The Eagles defeated the Vikings 21-10 in 2016.
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Minnesota has done a good job of running the ball this year even after the loss of rookie sensation RB Dalvin Cook after 4 games. They averaged 122 ypg and got decent production from both RBs Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. They averaged less than 4 ypc but unlike most teams, they stick with the ground game even if they encounter difficulties. That may happen this week as Philadelphia led the NFL in run defense (79.2 ypg). Despite the loss of several LBs to injury, the Eagles have continued to defend the run exceptionally well. They stuffed Atlanta RB Devonta Freeman last week (10 carries for 7 yards) but had trouble with RB Tevin Coleman (10 carries, 79 yards). Murray is the power and McKinnon is the quickness and both players can catch the ball. While the Vikings will certainly have trouble running the ball consistently, you can bet they will keep pounding it.
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QB Case Keenum (who has run for some first downs himself) has played relatively mistake-free football all year and is still the QB even though HC Mike Zimmer has refused to offer much praise for his performances. QB Sam Bradford is back but the job is still Keenum’s, as it should be. He has several desirable targets to throw to and while he likes WR Adam Thielen the best (91-1,276-4), he isn’t averse to throwing to other players as well. WR Stefon Diggs made the big play last week and finished second in receptions and yardage and tying for the team lead with 8 TD catches. TE Kyle Rudolph is a big target who makes big catches and McKinnon is very dangerous out of the backfield.
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As good as their run defense is, Philly’s pass defense is far from elite. After ranking near the bottom of the league for the past several years, they have improved over the past 2 years and allowed 227.3 ypg through the air in 2017. Their top 3 CBs (Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills and Patrick Robinson) gave up their share of big plays this year and I think they will be exposed in this contest. Thielen always finds a way to get open and Diggs is clearly a playmaker. WR Michael Floyd hasn’t been used much this season but still gets some shots, especially near the goal line. Minnesota’s o-line wasn’t good in 2016 but is vastly improved this year. RT Rashod Hill struggled at times last week as LG Mike Remmers moved positions so the Vikings could get their 5 best o-linemen on the field. If Hill has trouble again this week, look for Remmers to move back to RT. Philadelphia notched 38 sacks on the year and took down QB Matt Ryan 3 times last week. The Vikes surrendered only 27 sacks on the year and Keenum was dropped twice last week. DT Fletcher Cox is a major disruptor and if you hear his name a lot early, the offense could be in for a long day.
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Against Atlanta, HC Doug Pederson limited QB Nick Foles in the passing game. Most of his throws were to backs and TEs and the throws to WRs Torrey Smith, Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery were of the medium-distance variety. Against this defense, he will have to do more. The Vikings lead the NFL in opposing QBs passer rating (68.1) from Week 5 to now. That includes 2 playoff games. They have only lost 1 game during that span (12-1) because they don’t let QBs pass them to death. CB Xavier Rhodes is an elite corner and SS Harrison Smith is a veteran pro bowler. FS Andrew Sendejo (check status) left last week’s game with a concussion and has been showing good progress. As of this writing, he is expected to play this Sunday. Foles doesn’t have a lot of manoeuvrability and is at his best when in the pocket.
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Minnesota had 37 sacks on the year and 2 last week. DEs Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter (13 and 7 sacks respectively) will take turns testing backup LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, a young player who played poorly as a rookie in 2016 but better this year after his insertion into the lineup in Week 7. Jeffery is the biggest threat on the outside and he can expect to see a lot of Rhodes. Smith is mostly a speedster with a limited route tree while Agholor really bloomed this season following 2 disappointing seasons as a 1st-round pick. TE Zach Ertz is the top target and he’ll draw Smith on many occasions. Most of these matchups don’t favor the Eagles and no RB topped 13 catches on the year although RBs Corey Clement and Jay Ajayi combined for 8 catches last week. Ajayi is the starting RB and RB LeGarrette Blount still gets opportunities to pound the inside. The Eagles use a variety of trap plays and pulling guards and tackles to open running lanes but the Vikings LBs are big and fast. They won’t get steamrolled like the smallish Falcons LBs did last Saturday. I look for the Minnesota run defense (83.6 ypg on the year, 80 yards last week on 24 carries) to stuff the run early and force Foles to make consistent plays downfield. You can also expect them to blitz Foles from time to time as they yielded a league-best 63.7 QB rating when blitzing. They also led the league in 3rd-down defense (2-9 vs. Saints) and fewest big plays allowed (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+ yards).
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Public Money<br />
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In this weekends NFC Championship game between Minnesota and Philadelphia have the public evenly split on the 3 point spread with 50% per side. On the over under the bettors are slightly leaning to the over with 54% on board.
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