Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos Free Pick ATS

Darin Zank
Date: November 19, 8:20 pm
Location: Mile High Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Denver -2.5
Moneyline: Minn +110/Den -130
Total: 43

Both the Vikings and the Broncos started shaky this season but both are playing winning football lately, heading into this week’s edition of Sunday night NFL betting action.

Denver started 0-3 this season; it’s 4-2. Minnesota started 1-4; it’s 5-0 since. And both teams still think they’ve got a shot to make the playoffs.

How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 11 NFL betting market opened Denver at -2.5 for Sunday night, with an over/under of right around 43. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Vikings-Broncos Betting Preview

Minnesota rides a five-game winning streak into Sunday night after beating New Orleans at home last Sunday 27-19. The Vikings, with Josh Dobbs making his first start at QB for his new team, scored three second-quarter touchdowns to lead 24-3 at the half. Minnesota later allowed the Saints to get back within one score early in the fourth quarter but held on from there.

The Vikings out-gained New Orleans 388-280, out-rushed the Saints 125-65 and won the turnover battle 2-0.

Two weeks ago Minnesota, with Dobbs playing in relief, came from behind to win at Atlanta 31-28.

At 6-4 overall the Vikings trail first-place Detroit by a game and a half in the NFC North. But they also own the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff standings, at least for the moment.

Meanwhile Denver rides a three-game winning streak into Sunday after beating Buffalo on the road Monday night 24-22. The Broncos, as eight-point dogs, scored the first nine points of the game and led 15-8 at the half. Denver later fell down 22-21 with just under two minutes to go but drove 57 yards - with help from a big pass interference penalty - to a game-winning field goal at the buzzer.

The Broncos got out-gained by the Bills 369-300 but won the turnover battle 4-1, creating a +2 points differential. Just enough to win the game.

Two games ago Denver held Kansas City without a touchdown in a 24-9 win. Three games ago the Broncos beat Green Bay 19-17.

In fact, the Denver defense has held its last four opponents to just under 17 points per game.

At 4-5 overall, the Broncos only trail 5-4 Houston by one game (and six other teams) in the battle for that No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings.

On the injury front, the Vikes are banged-up at the skills positions. Bettors might want to check later reports before getting down on this game.

These teams last met four seasons ago, a 27-23 Vikings home victory. Kirk Cousins quarterbacked Minnesota that day against Brandon Allen for Denver.

NFL Betting Trends

Josh Dobbs is 2-9 SU but 6-4-1 ATS as an NFL starter.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 7-3 in Vikings games this season, which are averaging 44 total points.
  • The Unders are 5-4 in Broncos games this season, which, when we throw out that aberration of a game against Miami, are averaging 44 points.
  • Through Thursday night the Unders are 89-62 in the NFL this season.

Vikings at Denver NFL Betting Pick

Despite its recent success, Minnesota is a team with a journeyman at QB and a depleted receiving corps. The Vikings are also averaging only 86 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Denver is showing it’s a better team than the one that started so poorly this season. QB Wilson is sharper, the running game is producing 129 YPG over the last month-plus, and the defense is improving. We’re betting the Broncos Sunday night.

Free Pick: Take Denver -2.5
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