Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos Free Pick ATS
Both the Vikings and the Broncos started shaky this season but both are playing winning football lately, heading into this week’s edition of Sunday night NFL betting action.
Denver started 0-3 this season; it’s 4-2. Minnesota started 1-4; it’s 5-0 since. And both teams still think they’ve got a shot to make the playoffs.
How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Odds
The Week 11 NFL betting market opened Denver at -2.5 for Sunday night, with an over/under of right around 43. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
Vikings-Broncos Betting Preview
Minnesota rides a five-game winning streak into Sunday night after beating New Orleans at home last Sunday 27-19. The Vikings, with Josh Dobbs making his first start at QB for his new team, scored three second-quarter touchdowns to lead 24-3 at the half. Minnesota later allowed the Saints to get back within one score early in the fourth quarter but held on from there.
The Vikings out-gained New Orleans 388-280, out-rushed the Saints 125-65 and won the turnover battle 2-0.
Two weeks ago Minnesota, with Dobbs playing in relief, came from behind to win at Atlanta 31-28.
At 6-4 overall the Vikings trail first-place Detroit by a game and a half in the NFC North. But they also own the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff standings, at least for the moment.
Meanwhile Denver rides a three-game winning streak into Sunday after beating Buffalo on the road Monday night 24-22. The Broncos, as eight-point dogs, scored the first nine points of the game and led 15-8 at the half. Denver later fell down 22-21 with just under two minutes to go but drove 57 yards - with help from a big pass interference penalty - to a game-winning field goal at the buzzer.
The Broncos got out-gained by the Bills 369-300 but won the turnover battle 4-1, creating a +2 points differential. Just enough to win the game.
Two games ago Denver held Kansas City without a touchdown in a 24-9 win. Three games ago the Broncos beat Green Bay 19-17.
In fact, the Denver defense has held its last four opponents to just under 17 points per game.
At 4-5 overall, the Broncos only trail 5-4 Houston by one game (and six other teams) in the battle for that No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings.
On the injury front, the Vikes are banged-up at the skills positions. Bettors might want to check later reports before getting down on this game.
These teams last met four seasons ago, a 27-23 Vikings home victory. Kirk Cousins quarterbacked Minnesota that day against Brandon Allen for Denver.
NFL Betting Trends
Josh Dobbs is 2-9 SU but 6-4-1 ATS as an NFL starter.
- The Unders are 7-3 in Vikings games this season, which are averaging 44 total points.
- The Unders are 5-4 in Broncos games this season, which, when we throw out that aberration of a game against Miami, are averaging 44 points.
- Through Thursday night the Unders are 89-62 in the NFL this season.
Vikings at Denver NFL Betting Pick
Despite its recent success, Minnesota is a team with a journeyman at QB and a depleted receiving corps. The Vikings are also averaging only 86 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Denver is showing it’s a better team than the one that started so poorly this season. QB Wilson is sharper, the running game is producing 129 YPG over the last month-plus, and the defense is improving. We’re betting the Broncos Sunday night.