Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Picks - Odds and Predictions

Rich Crew
Date: December 24, 1:00 pm
Location: Arrowhead Stadium
TV: CBS Sports

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Kansas City -10.5
Total: 44

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The Dolphins travel to Kansas City in Week 16 to take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium with a 1PM kickoff time scheduled. The betting board show the host Kansas City as a 10 to 10.5 point spread favorite over visiting Miami with the total line listed at 44 points.
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Miami was defeated 24-16 by Buffalo on Sunday giving them little chance to make the playoffs. QB Jay Cutler was 28-49 for 274 yards and 3 interceptions. He was sacked 3 times and fumbled the ball 4 times (none lost). WR Jarvis Landry had 10 catches for 99 yards while WR DeVante Parker totaled 6 catches for 89 yards. RB Kenyan Drake ran for 78 yards on 16 carries and scored once. The defense allowed 212 passing yards and had 2 sacks. The run defense gave up 116 yards on 30 carries. LB Kiko Alonso paced the defense with 10 tackles.
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Kansas City assumed the driver’s seat in the AFC West with a 30-13 pounding of the Los Angeles Chargers last Saturday. QB Alex Smith finished 23-30 for 231 yards and 2 TDs. He was sacked once and didn’t commit a TO. WR Tyreek Hill had 5 receptions for 88 yards and a TD catch. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt rumbled for 155 yards on 24 carries and caught 7 passes for 51 yards. He scored on the ground and through the air. The defense held the Chargers to 209 passing yards and 98 rushing yards. They picked off 3 passes, recovered a fumble and had 2 sacks. CB Marcus Peters had 2 of the interceptions.
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<b>Last Matchup </b> 2014 – Chiefs 34-15
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Betting Trends to Consider<br />
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Miami is 5-11 ATS in their final 2 games of the season, since 2009.
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The Dolphins have recorded 7 overs, 1 under and 1 push in their last 9 games.
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Kansas City is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC East opponents.
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The Chiefs have produced 6 overs and 16 unders in their last 22 home games.
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<h2>
Injury Report<br />
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<b>Miami: </b>The Dolphins will be without RB Damien Williams and back-up QB Matt Moore.
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<b>Kansas City:</b> The Chiefs OLB Justin Houston has missed practice with an illness and it is reported that he’ll be a game time decision.
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Public Money<br />
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The hometown Chiefs are taking the lion’s share of the point spread bets with the public laying 60% of their action on that side. The OVER holds the edge in total betting with 57% of the O/U wagers landing on that side
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Miami at Kansas City Prediction Week 16

The Chiefs came up big last week in a key game knocking off the Chargers 30-13, but I feel that the Chargers lost the game rather than the Chiefs winning it themselves. Los Angeles was trailing KC by just four in third before turning the ball over in their next and last four drives.  The Chiefs had just two wins in their previous eight games prior to the Week 15 win and should not be favored by this much over anyone. The Dolphins have played decent run defense at times this season and a repeat of that gets them the money here.

Free Pick: Take the Dolphins +10.5 (RC)
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