Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions Pick

Darin Zank
Date: September 29, 1:00 pm
Location: Ford Field
TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5
Total: 55

<p>
<b>Kansas City Chiefs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (2-0-1, 2-1) </b>
</p>
<p>
Patrick Mahomes and his high-flying Chiefs take their show on the road for an inter-conference match-up with the Lions in Detroit Sunday afternoon. Kansas City is undefeated so far this NFL season, but so are the Lions, and yet the Chiefs are favored by almost a touchdown. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
</p>
<h2>
NFL Betting Odds<br />
</h2>
<p>
Week 4's NFL betting odds opened KC at -6 over Detroit, with an over/under of right around 53. Early betting action then bumped the Chiefs to -6.5 and the total to 55.
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<h2>
Chiefs vs. Lions Set-Up<br />
</h2>
<p>
Kansas City is off to a 3-0 start to this season, after holding off Baltimore last week 33-28. The Chiefs spotted the Ravens the first six points of the game, then went on a 23-0 run to take control. KC let Baltimore get back within one score with two minutes to go but recovered an onside dropkick and ran out the clock.
</p>
<p>
That game opened with Kansas City favored by 6.5 points, then went off at 4.5. So some bettors benefited from the line movement, some didn't, and some hit the middle.
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<p>
On the day the Chiefs racked up 503 yards of total offense, and while the KC defense allowed 452 yards of Ravens offense a lot of that came while protecting a big lead. That Chiefs defense also stuffed Baltimore on three 2-point conversion attempts.
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<p>
The Chiefs opened this season with a 40-26 victory at Jacksonville, covering at -3.5, then won at Oakland 28-10, covering at -7. So they're already 2-0 both SU and ATS on the road this season.
</p>
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<p>
Detroit, meanwhile, is also still undefeated, at 2-0-1, after beating the Eagles in Philly last week 27-24. The Lions spotted Philadelphia an early field goal, then went on a 20-7 run to lead 20-10 at the half. They later let the Eagles get within three points twice in the second half but held on for the outright win as four-point underdogs.
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<p>
On the day Detroit got out-gained by Philly 373-287, out-rushed 127-86 and lost time of possession by a 32-28 split. But the Lions also returned a kickoff for a touchdown and won the turnover battle 2-0, creating a plus-6 points differential.
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<p>
Detroit also benefited from a bunch of dropped passes by Eagles receivers.
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<p>
The Lions opened this season with that 27-27 tie with Arizona, but they should have won that game, considering they led 24-6 early in the fourth quarter. Detroit then beat the Chargers 13-10 even though it got out-gained 424-339.
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<p>
These two teams last met back in 2015. A 45-10 Chiefs romp at Arrowhead.
</p>
<h2>
NFL Betting Trends<br />
</h2>
<ul>
<li>
Kansas City is 16-4 SU, 12-6-2 ATS with Mahomes as the starter at quarterback.
</li>
<li>
Kansas City is 7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS over its last ten road games.
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<li>
Kansas City is 7-2 both SU and ATS over its last nine games giving less than seven points.
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<li>
Detroit is 4-2-1 SU, 5-2 ATS over its last seven games.
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<li>
Detroit is 3-3 both SU and ATS its last six times out as a home dog.
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<li>
Home dogs are 4-11 SU, 6-10 ATS so far this NFL betting season.
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</ul>
<h2>
Totals Report<br />
</h2>
<ul>
<li>
Overs are 2-1 in Chiefs games this season, which are averaging 55 total points.
</li>
<li>
Overs are 2-1 in Lions games this season, even though they're only averaging 43 points.
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<li>
Unders are 26-22 so far this NFL season.
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</ul>
<p><section></p>
<ul>
<li>
<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/nfl/matchup/1109448">Kansas City at Detroit NFL Match-up Stats</a> </span>
</li>
</ul>
<p></section></p>

Chiefs at Lions Prediction 09/29/2019

Kansas City is the better team here, especially, obviously, offensively, playing on the road, where the spread is a bit more amenable. So we like the Chiefs for our free NFL pick in this spot.

Free Pick: Take Kansas City -6.5
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