Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots Odds - Total Pick
Betting Odds
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Cincinnati fell behind 28-0 and never recovered in a 28-14 loss to Dallas last week. New England celebrated the return of QB Tom Brady with a 33-13 rout of Cleveland last Sunday.
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The Bengals offense has had trouble getting the running game going and it doesn’t get any easier this week. The Patriots allow only 86.4 rushing ypg and RB Jeremy Hill is iffy for this game with a chest injury he sustained last week. RB Giovani Bernard is averaging only 3.5 ypc on 34 attempts so I don’t see the running game getting healthy in this matchup. QB Andy Dalton has a big-time weapon in WR A.J. Green (36-518-2) and look for him to target the explosive wideout throughout the game. While New England has a history of attempting to take away an opponent’s best option, Green is too dangerous to be contained for long. WR Brandon LaFell, an ex-Pat should have some ideas on how to attack a defense he saw every day in practice. He along with TE C.J. Uzomah, WR Tyler Boyd and Bernard (25 catches, 2nd on team) has to come up big this week for the Bengals to get a badly-needed win.
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The Patriots rolled up 501 yards of total offense last week in Brady’s season debut. He threw for 406 yards, 3 scores (all to TE Martellus Bennett) and zero interceptions. This week he faces a Cincinnati defense that has yielded 11 TD passes in 5 games and is clearly having issues in their secondary. WR Julian Edelman leads the way with 24 receptions but Bennett and a slowly-recovering TE Rob Gronkowski are the big weapons that the Bengals have to worry about. Brady has always done a great job of spreading the ball around but without a difference maker at WR, he will look to these two large targets early and often. The running game is averaging 128 ypg despite RB LaGarrette Blount’s mediocre 3.7 ypc. The Bengals allow 4.4 ypc so New England will employ the run, especially if they have early success.
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Public Money Consensus<br />
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In this weeks NFL matchup between Cincinnati at New England we see the public money is coming in droves on the Patriots to cover the 9 point spread at over 80%. The over/under bettors are definitively taking the over the 47 points in this game at a whopping 82%.
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Cincinnati at New England Prediction
Cincy is a desperate club this week but this is their 2nd-straight tough road assignment. The offense lacks an identity outside of Green and this isn’t a matchup they are likely to find it. The Pats didn’t resemble anything similar last week to the team that was shut out by Buffalo just the week before. These two teams last met in the infamous “On to Cincinnati” game in 2014, one week after the Pats were destroyed 41-14 by the Chiefs on Monday night. Their response? A 43-17 butt-kicking of the Bengals. I expect this to be another high-scoring affair and am very comfortable with an Over play in this one.