Bengals at Ravens: TNF Week 11 Odds & Predictions
Every team in the AFC North is above .500 on the season, heading into this week’s edition of NFL Thursday night betting action. Baltimore sits in first place at 7-3, and Cincinnati in last place at 5-4. And both teams are looking to bounce back after having four-game winning streaks snapped last Sunday.
The Bengals own the recent edge in the rivalry with the Ravens, but Baltimore won the first meeting between the teams this season.
Who do we like for our free TNF pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 11 NFL betting market opened Baltimore as a four-point favorite for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 44.5. Early betting action then shaved that spread to 3.5 and bumped that total to 46.
Bengals-Ravens Betting Preview
Cincinnati just had a four-game winning streak snapped by a 30-27 loss at home to Houston last Sunday. The Bengals, favored by six points, drove their opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown but trailed 10-7 at the half. Cincinnati still trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter, tied it at 27-27 with a minute and a half to go, but allowed the Texans to drive 55 yards to a game-deciding field goal as time expired.
The Bengals got out-gained by Texas 544-380, out-rushed 188-66, and turned the ball over twice on Burrow interceptions at key points in the game.
Cincinnati started 1-3 this season, then won four in a row.
But now, at 5-4 overall and just 1-4 in conference play, the Bengals trail the Texans by a tie-breaker in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings.
Meanwhile, Baltimore also just had a four-game winning streak end with a 33-31 loss to Cleveland last Sunday. The Ravens, favored by six points, scored the first 14 points of the game and led 17-9 at the half. Baltimore still led 31-17 in the fourth quarter but allowed the Browns to score the last 16 points of the game, the final three on a field goal at the buzzer, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The Ravens got out-gained by Cleveland 373-306 and out-rushed 178-106.
Back a month ago, Baltimore lost two of three games, then won four in a row, including wrecks of Detroit and Seattle.
At 7-3 overall, the Ravens now trail Kansas City by a half-game in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
These two teams have played five common opponents so far this season; Arizona, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle and Tennessee. Baltimore played those foes to 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, and +85 yards per game, Cincinnati to 2-3 both SU and ATS, and -129 YPG.
Bengals-Ravens Recent History
Cincinnati beat Baltimore four out of five meetings from 2021 through last season, including that 24-17 wild-card playoff decision last January. However, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson missed two of those Baltimore losses due to injuries. Then, in the first meeting between these teams this season back in Week 2, Jackson and the Ravens won at Cincinnati 27-24.
Baltimore out-rushed the Bengals that day 178-66.
NFL Betting Trends
Baltimore, with Lamar Jackson at QB, is 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS vs. Cincinnati with Joe Burrow.
So far this NFL season, except for Week 1, Thursday night home teams are 6-3 SU but only 3-5-1 ATS.
- The Unders are 5-4 in Bengals games this season, which are averaging 42 total points.
- The Unders are 6-4 in Ravens games this season, which are averaging 43 points.
- The Overs are 5-1 over the last six meetings between these teams.
- Through Week 10, the Unders are 89-61 in the NFL this season.
Cincinnati at Baltimore Free Pick ATS
Baltimore owns the better running game in this match-up, and the better defense, and that’s almost enough for us right there. Also, the Ravens own the much better performance against common opponents. We're almost surprised the spread on this game isn't three points higher. We're betting on Baltimore Thursday night.