Many key metrics point to a big win by Miami and a probable cover, and I've covered some of the stats in this analysis. However, I believe the Titans are the way to go here. Read through the stats and analysis for the full explanation on why I'm picking the Titans +13.5.

Recent Form

Miami's impressive record (9-3) and strong ATS performance (8-4) contrast with Tennessee's struggles (4-8, 5-7 ATS). Miami's offense significantly outperforms Tennessee (32.00 points per game vs. 17.75).

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Power Stats Analysis

• Yards Per Point: Miami's offense is more efficient.
• Yards Per Pass: Miami has a considerable advantage.
• Yards Per Rush: Miami again leads with better rushing efficiency.

Smart Chart Analysis

Miami dominates in both passing and rushing yards. Tennessee's defense does slightly better in yards allowed, but Miami's offensive power is overwhelming.

Head-to-Head & Recent Team Performance

Miami's recent form is excellent, especially at home. Tennessee, in contrast, shows significant struggles, particularly on the road.

Betting Odds and Trends

Miami has a strong trend of covering the spread and winning at home. Tennessee shows a concerning pattern of not covering, especially on the road.

Key Insights

• Offensive Edge: Miami
• Defensive Comparison: Slightly in favor of Tennessee
• Turnover Differential: Nearly equal for both teams

Betting Angle

Miami's offensive strength and home performance make them a favorite to cover the large spread. The total line could lean towards the over, given Miami's scoring ability.

Why Tennessee Titans Can Cover the Spread

Despite the daunting matchup against the Dolphins, who are 5-0 at home, there are several reasons why the Titans can cover the +13.5-point spread:

1. Competitive Road Performance: The Titans, despite being 0-6 on the road, have lost three of those games by just one score, showing they can keep games competitive.
2. Miami's Inflated Home Record: The Dolphins' impeccable home record comes with a caveat - they have played against some of the weakest offenses in the league. This might not fully reflect their capability against a stronger opponent.
3. Injury Concerns for Miami: Miami will be missing two key linebackers, which could be exploited by Tennessee's potent running back duo of Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears.
4. Tennessee's Strong Rushing Attack: With Henry and Spears gaining momentum, Tennessee's rushing game could control the clock and keep the game closer than the spread suggests.
5. Underestimation of Tennessee's Defense: Tennessee's defense, being slightly better in yards allowed, might hold off Miami's offense more effectively than expected.