Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick: Week 11 Insights & Odds Analysis

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick: Week 11 Insights & Odds Analysis

Cliff Knox
Date: November 20, 8:15 pm
Location: Arrowhead Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: KC -2.5
Moneyline: KC -145 / Philly +125
Total: 47.5

Last 5 Games

Philadelphia Eagles

In their last game, the Eagles won against the Dallas Cowboys with a score of 28-23. They were 3-point favorites and successfully covered the spread. The total for the game was set at 46.5, and it went over.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs' most recent game saw them win against the Miami Dolphins 21-14. They were 1-point underdogs and covered the spread. The total for the game was set at 51.5, and it went under.

Power Stats

Yards Per Point

Philadelphia Eagles: Offense - 13.46, Defense - 14.92 Kansas City Chiefs: Offense - 15.96, Defense - 18.14 Advantage: The Eagles are more efficient offensively, needing fewer yards for each point scored. Defensively, the Chiefs force opponents to work harder for their points.

Yards Per Pass

Philadelphia Eagles: Offense - 10.59, Defense - 9.6 Kansas City Chiefs: Offense - 10.28, Defense - 9.0 Advantage: The Eagles have a slight edge in offensive pass efficiency, while the Chiefs are better defensively against the pass.

Yards Per Rush

Philadelphia Eagles: Offense - 4.02, Defense - 3.73 Kansas City Chiefs: Offense - 4.13, Defense - 4.55 Advantage: The Chiefs have a more efficient rushing offense, but defensively, the Eagles are stronger against the rush.

Key Offensive and Defensive Stats

Eagles' Offense vs. Chiefs' Defense: The Eagles have a strong offensive lineup, averaging 28.00 points per game with 247.11 passing yards and 129.67 rushing yards. The Chiefs' defense allows 15.89 points per game on average, with 176.00 passing yards and 112.22 rushing yards allowed. Chiefs' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Chiefs average 23.11 points per game, with a solid passing game at 265.00 yards per game and 103.78 rushing yards. The Eagles' defense, allowing 21.67 points, 257.00 passing yards, and 66.33 rushing yards per game, will be tested against Kansas City's dynamic offense.

Betting Odds Trends

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Philadelphia has a strong SU record, going 8-1 in their last 9 games.
  • However, they have struggled against the spread on the road, going 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 away games.
  • The Eagles have a strong record on the road, going 11-2 SU in their last 13 games away from home.
  • They have not fared well against Kansas City historically, going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Chiefs.

Kansas City Chiefs

  • The Chiefs have been performing well ATS, going 4-1 in their last 5 games.
  • They have an impressive SU record, winning 15 of their last 17 games.
  • The total has gone under in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games.
  • At home, Kansas City has been strong, with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 home games and an 11-1 SU record in their last 12 games at home.

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Top 5 Reasons to Bet KC -2.5

Several key reasons emerge suggesting why the Chiefs are likely to cover the 2.5 point spread: Home-Field Advantage and Recent Form: Kansas City has demonstrated strong performance at home, with a 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and an 11-1 SU record in their last 12 at Arrowhead Stadium. Playing on familiar turf tends to bolster a team's performance, and the Chiefs have shown they can capitalize on this advantage. Defensive Efficiency: The Chiefs' defense has been more effective than the Eagles in terms of Yards Per Point, with a differential of -2.18 compared to the Eagles' -1.46. This efficiency indicates that the Chiefs are better at preventing opponents from turning yards into points, a crucial factor in not just keeping the game close but also in covering the spread. Offensive Capability: Offensively, Kansas City holds an edge in Yards Per Pass, with a differential of +1.28 compared to Philadelphia's +0.99. This suggests that the Chiefs are more efficient in their passing game, which could be critical in breaking down the Eagles' defense and securing enough points to cover the spread. Recent Matchup History: Looking at the head-to-head record, Kansas City has a 4-1 SU advantage in their last 5 games against Philadelphia. Historical dominance in recent matchups often points to a psychological edge, which could play a role in a close game. Turnover Differential: The Chiefs have a positive turnover differential (+0.45), which indicates a tendency to capitalize on opponents' mistakes while minimizing their own. In tight games, especially ones with a narrow spread, turnover margins can be the deciding factor.

Eagles at Chiefs Free Pick ATS

The public opinion on this game is pretty close,and the line suggests that the linesmaker is looking for the Chiefs' money. Typically that would make this a no-play, but as I pointed out there are some reasons to back Kansas City and with the spread under 3, that's where my money is landing. 

Free Pick: Take the Chiefs -2.5
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