A playoff berth and perhaps a division title will be decided when the 9-7 Colts host the 9-7 Texans for some NFL Week 18 Saturday night betting action from Indianapolis.

The winner of this game clinches an AFC wild-card berth and remains in the running for the AFC South title. The loser can start making vacation plans. Early betting action flipped the favorite on this game. Who do we like for our free NFL betting pick?

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NFL Betting Odds

The Week 18 NFL betting market opened Indianapolis as a one-point favorite for Saturday, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then flipped Houston into the favorite at -1.5.

Texans-Colts Betting Preview

Houston bounced back from that bad loss to Cleveland a couple of weeks ago to beat Tennessee last Sunday 26-3. With CJ Stroud back at QB, the Texans scored the first 20 points of the game, led 20-3 at the half, blanked the Titans from there, and covered at -5.5. Houston out-gained Tennessee 312-187, held the Titans to 1/12 on 3rd-down conversions and recorded six sacks. But then again, that Tennessee offense is not real good, so we take those numbers somewhat lightly. The Texans have out-rushed each of their last four opponents, thanks mainly to a pretty good run defense. Houston is riding the NFL roller coaster at the moment, alternating wins and losses over the last seven weeks. Three weeks ago, with back-up Keenum in at QB for an injured Stroud, the Texans won at Tennessee 19-16. Then, two weeks ago, again with Keenum, Houston got blown out by the Browns 36-22. Meanwhile, Indianapolis just bounced back from that bad loss at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago to beat Las Vegas last Sunday 23-20. The Colts drove the game's opening possession to a touchdown and never trailed. Indianapolis led 14-3 at the half and didn’t allow the Raiders to get back within three points until less than a minute remaining in the game. However, a late Las Vegas score cost the Colts the cover at -3.5. Indianapolis actually got out-gained by the Raiders 370-349 but out-rushed Vegas 134-84. The Colts are also doing the up-and-down thing as of late. Back a month ago, Indianapolis won four games in a row, then laid an egg at Cincinnati. The Colts bounced back the next week to beat Pittsburgh 30-13, then lost to the Falcons 29-10. Then they beat the Raiders. Big-picture, at 9-7 overall, these two teams are tied for first place in the AFC South with Jacksonville. The winner of Saturday’s game clinches a playoff berth for sure and wins the division if the Jaguars lose Sunday at Tennessee. The loser of Saturday’s game is out. On the injury front the Texans are banged-up at the receiver spots and along the defensive line while Indianapolis is hurting along the offensive line. Bettors might want to check later reports before getting down on this game.

Texans-Colts Recent History

Indianapolis owns the upper hand in this rivalry as of late, winning 10 of the last 14 meetings outright, including a playoff victory four seasons ago, going 10-4 ATS along the way. Back in September, the Colts took the first meeting between the teams this season 31-20 at Houston. Rookie Anthony Richardson started at QB for Indianapolis that day, got the Colts off to a good start, and then left the game with a concussion. Gardner Minshew played well in relief as Indianapolis racked up 393 yards of offense. Also, that game easily played over a total of 41.

NFL Betting Trends

The Colts are 7-5 both SU and ATS this season, with Minshew as the starter at QB, averaging 23 PPG. The Texans are 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS with Stroud as the starter at QB, averaging 22 PPG.

Totals Report

The Unders are 10-6 in Texans games this season, which are averaging 43 total points. The Overs are 11-5 in Colts games, which are averaging 48 points. The Unders are 138-118 in the NFL this season.