New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants: Week 14 Prediction
Betting Odds
Remember when New Orleans started 2-0 this season, scoring all those points? The Saints are 2-8 since then. But New Orleans gets a chance to make ground on .500 and stay in the NFC South race when it takes on the struggling Giants on Sunday afternoon in East Rutherford.
The Saints may only be 4-8 on the season, but they’re still in their divisional race. Meanwhile, New York, after dumping its starting quarterback, is probably playing out its last few games under Coach Daboll.
The Giants are lined as home dogs for this one, but home dogs ain’t had much bite in the NFL this year.
NFL Betting Odds
This week’s NFL betting market opened New Orleans at -4 over the Giants, with an O/U of right around 41. Early betting action bumped the Saints to -4.5.
Saints Betting Preview
New Orleans missed a chance at a three-game winning streak last week by losing at home to the Rams 21-14. The Saints, catching 2.5 points as home dogs, led 6-0 at the half. The game was later tied at 14-14 when New Orleans finally fell down for good midway through the fourth quarter. The Saints drove last-gasp inside the Los Angeles red zone but came up empty.
New Orleans got out-rushed by the Rams 156-143.
Three games ago, the Saints, after canning their head coach, beat Atlanta 20-17. Then they beat Cleveland 35-14. So New Orleans is 2-1 both SU and ATS under interim HC Rizzi.
The Saints are also now 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS with Derek Carr at QB this season, averaging 26 points per game.
You’d think at 4-8 overall New Orleans would probably be out of the running in the NFC playoff race. But the Saints only trail the first-place Falcons and Tampa Bay, both 6-6, by two games in the NFC South. So they’re not dead yet.
Saints Betting Preview
Meanwhile, New York lugs a seven-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at Dallas last Thursday 27-20. The Giants, with Drew Lock starting at QB, only trailed 13-10 at the half. But New York gave up the first 14 points of the second half, didn’t get back to within one score until only two minutes remained, and could get no closer.
The Giants got out-gained by the Cowboys 317-247 and lost the turnover battle 2-0, which cost them 14 points.
Two games ago, New York, with Tommy Devito at quarterback, lost to Tampa Bay 30-7. Three games ago, in their last game with Daniel Jones at QB, the Giants lost to Carolina 20-17.
In fact, the last time New York won a game or covered a spread was that 29-20 victory out at Seattle back in early October.
At 2-10 overall, the Giants are probably headed toward a tumultuous off-season.
These two teams last met back in December of last season, a 24-6 Saints home win. Carr threw three touchdown passes for New Orleans that day against Devito for New York.
On the injury front the Giants list two starters along the offensive line and four defensive starters as questionable for Sunday while the Saints list three O-liners as the same. New Orleans is also now without slashback Taysom Hill for the season (knee).
Common Opponents
These teams have played five common opponents this season: the Cowboys, Panthers, Eagles, Buccaneers, and Browns. New Orleans played those foes to 3-3, both SU and ATS, and -9 YPG, and New York to 1-5, both SU and ATS, and -55 YPG.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 95-95 SU and 86-101 ATS this season.
- Favorites are 139-56 SU, 103-89 ATS.
- Home dogs are 18-58 SU, 31-44 ATS.
New Orleans ranks 14th in the League in turnover margin at +2, New York 28th at -8. Teams that win the turnover battle this season are 107-36 SU, 103-38 ATS.
Totals Report
The Over is 7-5 in Saints games this season, which are averaging 46 total points.
The Under is 8-4 in Giants games, which are averaging 39 points.
The overs are 101-93 in the NFL this season.
Prop Board Picks
Both teams to score at least 20 points is catching +220.
Free NFL Betting Pick
We give New Orleans our handicapping checkmarks in the QB comparison and with the better running game. And while New York might own the better defense overall, the Saints are slightly better against the run. Also, New Orleans owns the better performance against common opponents and, as it clings to hopes of making ground in that NFC South race, has more to play for. We like the Saints for Sunday, minus the points.