The Denver Broncos head to Baltimore to face the Ravens in an exciting Week 9 matchup. Both teams, sitting at 5-3, aim to strengthen their playoff hopes, but the Ravens, with their high-powered offense, are favored to cover a -9.5 spread. Denver’s top-tier defense will need to step up to counter Baltimore’s potent rushing attack and the new threat from wideout Diontae Johnson.
Denver Broncos:

• Record: 5-3 (6-2 ATS)
• Offense: 21.62 PPG, Defense: 15.00 PPG (+6.62 point differential)
• ATS Away: 4-0 | OU: 5-3

Denver’s success this season has been anchored by its defense, which allows only 15 points per game and ranks as one of the league’s best at limiting scoring efficiency. The Broncos have the third-best yards-per-point defense, allowing one point for every 18.84 yards gained by opponents. This high efficiency forces teams to cover a lot of ground to put points on the board, putting Denver at a defensive advantage against high-scoring offenses.

Baltimore Ravens:

• Record: 5-3 (4-3-1 ATS)
• Offense: 30.25 PPG, Defense: 26.12 PPG (+4.12 point differential)
• ATS Home: 1-1-1 | OU: 7-1

Coming off a divisional loss to Cleveland, Baltimore has a prime opportunity to bounce back at home, where they’ve excelled against Denver. Baltimore’s offense ranks among the league’s top, scoring over 30 points per game with a formidable rushing attack that averages 200 yards per game. The recent acquisition of Diontae Johnson could elevate their passing game, adding a vertical threat that complements their ground game.

However, Baltimore’s defense has shown some vulnerability. They allow one point for every 13.83 yards gained, which is less efficient and ranks lower in the league. This means that opponents often need fewer yards to score against them compared to Denver’s defense. For Baltimore to cover the spread, they’ll need their offense to compensate for this inefficiency by capitalizing on scoring opportunities and putting pressure on Denver’s defense.

Power Stats Comparison:

• Yards Per Point (Offense/Defense Differential): Denver -4.64 | Baltimore +1.12
• Yards Per Pass Differential: Denver +0.84 | Baltimore +1.43
• Yards Per Rush Differential: Denver +0.49 | Baltimore +2.86

These metrics show Baltimore’s strong offensive efficiency, especially on the ground, where they average 6.15 yards per rush. With the addition of Johnson, Baltimore’s passing game could further stretch Denver’s defense, allowing them to sustain drives and maximize scoring opportunities.

Key Matchup Insights:

Baltimore has historically dominated Denver at M&T Bank Stadium, winning 7 of the last 8 home matchups. Denver has struggled to keep up in these matchups, and with Baltimore highly motivated after last week’s loss, they’re likely to play aggressively. Baltimore is also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against Denver, a trend they’ll look to continue with their offensive upgrades.

Betting Trends:

• Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 home games against Denver.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore’s last 8 games.
• Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games but has struggled to cover against Baltimore.