Team Overview

Arizona Cardinals

• Record: 3-4
• Division: 2nd in NFC West
• ATS: 4-3-0
• O/U: 3-3-1
• Away: 1-2-0
• Last 3 Games: Win against LAC (17-15), Loss to GB (13-34), Win over SF (24-23)

Miami Dolphins

• Record: 2-4
• Division: 2nd in AFC East
• ATS: 1-5-0
• O/U: 1-5-0
• Home: 1-2-0
• Last 3 Games: Loss to BUF, Loss to NE, Win over DEN

Game Odds (via SportsInteraction)

Game Preview

The Miami Dolphins look to find rhythm this Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals at home, with a reenergized squad led by Tua Tagovailoa, who returns following his injury in the Buffalo game. Tua’s presence has an undeniable impact on Miami’s offense, enabling them to operate at full tilt with a balance of explosive passes and methodical, short gains to extend drives. His return couldn’t come at a better time as the Dolphins need a momentum boost after a challenging early season.

Arizona enters with a 3-4 record and is fresh off a narrow 17-15 win against the Chargers. Kyler Murray, though inconsistent, can be dangerous in playmaking situations. The Cardinals’ ground game has been their strength, ranking sixth in the league with 150.3 yards per game, but they’ll face a stout Miami run defense eager to disrupt their plans.

Key Matchups

Miami Defense vs. Arizona Offense

Miami boasts a top-ranked pass defense (1st in yards allowed and completion percentage). They’ve kept opponents to just 154.5 pass yards per game, a key factor against an Arizona offense that ranks 25th in passing yards and has faced recent struggles in air consistency. Kyler Murray’s recent passing metrics reflect difficulty, with a 53.8% completion rate and only 145 passing yards in last week’s game against the Chargers. Miami’s defense should have the edge if they can contain Murray and limit his rushing escapes.

Arizona’s Rushing Attack vs. Miami’s Run Defense

Arizona ranks second in yards per rush (5.5), showing solid production on the ground. However, Miami’s defensive line can hold its own, allowing 4.6 yards per rush. Miami’s priority will be to neutralize Arizona’s rush-heavy approach, forcing them into pass-first situations where Miami’s secondary excels.

Miami Offense with Tua Tagovailoa

Miami’s offense struggled without Tua, particularly in their Week 4 and 5 losses, but his return stabilizes the offensive lineup. Miami will look to take advantage of Arizona’s weaker pass defense, which ranks 19th in yards per attempt (6.5). With Tua’s arm strength and accuracy, Miami’s passing game could expose holes in the Cardinals’ secondary.

Betting Trends and Analysis

Against the Spread (ATS)

Miami is 1-5 ATS, a factor that’s partly due to a missing Tua and struggles in game-closing scenarios. Arizona has covered more consistently, sitting at 4-3 ATS, especially in close games or as an underdog. With Tua back and Miami facing a potentially tired Arizona defense, Miami looks positioned to break their ATS streak.

Over/Under Trends

Both teams lean toward unders, with Miami hitting the under in five of six games this season. Miami’s defense will be key to keeping this game lower scoring, especially if they can keep Arizona’s run game contained. This control would limit possessions and scoring opportunities, favoring the under.

Prediction

Tua’s return and Miami’s defensive edge against the pass make the Dolphins a strong pick at -4.5. Arizona’s inconsistencies on offense, particularly through the air, could make it challenging for them to keep pace if Miami takes an early lead. Miami’s ability to control both the tempo and field position favors them in this matchup. Arizona will need to lean on their rushing prowess to stay competitive, but Miami’s balanced attack and home-field advantage should carry them through.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins to cover -4.5