Here is a guide to use when looking at a team's motivation.
If you think that one team will be more motivated in a bowl game then bet on that team. Do not worry about the game?s point spread. Over the years point spreads are, many times, irrelevant. Try to find out who is more likely to come out the winner of the game based on which team will be more motivated.
If neither team will probably be motivated for the bowl game look for the game to come down to the weaknesses of the teams. If you have teams that will not be motivated with a so-so offense take the Under and conversely if a team is not motivated and is not great on D take the Over. You do not have to force a side play on a bowl if it is hard to get a legit read on the game. The lack of motivation from both teams in a bowl game can still give strong picks.
If both teams will be motivated for a bowl game then look at the strengths of the teams involved. Teams that are motivated with a solid offense will probably be in a shootout so the Over is a good call and conversely a motivated team with a solid defense will play a field position game and the Under is the way to go.
OK, so you may ask, how can I figure out the motivation of a team? Here are some things to look for.
Look for teams that did not live up to expectations during the regular season to not be happy about the bowl game they are playing in. The players were thinking they would be in a BCS or legit bowl game and if they are not playing in one they will probably not be motivated for the game. Teams that did not play well at the end of the season tend not to play well in bowl games. Look for surprising teams that played above expectations to be motivated about their bowl game, hello Boise State over Oklahoma. In the beginning of the season the teams did not think they would playing near the New Year and when they are they will be ready for it.
Look for teams that ended the season winning a big rivalry game, as they may be disappointing in a bowl game. This can be a solid factor to look at, as the public thinks that the momentum will carry over into the bowl game. However, it is often the case that the team played in their big game of the season, especially if the bowl is a non-BCS game, and they do not have any juice left for the bowl game.
Look for teams that were upset in their last regular season game to bounce back and have a strong bowl game. This does not happen all the time, but it does happen often. Look for teams that have something to prove, as they will bring their A game more often then not.
Look for teams that have a lot of seniors on the roster to be motivated for bowl games. The last game of a college career will bring out the best in players, as they want to go out with a win. Experience is something you have to look at and when you combine that with motivation it is a solid combination.
Look for teams that will be underdogs for the game that think they shouldn?t be. This is a good thing to look at, as there is nothing that gets a team motivated more then when they do not get respect. Teams that have been reading in the press that they are the weaker of the teams will be ready for the game and the coaches will let them know what the press is saying about them. Teams like this can come out on fire and look for something to prove.
Motivation is probably the biggest factor in handicapping bowl games. If you can pick the teams that are more motivated for the game it will make picking winners easier.
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