Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Free Pick ATS
Michigan brings a perfect record and significant momentum into this Big Ten East showdown with the Nittany Lions on Saturday afternoon at Happy Valley.
The Wolverines, at 9-0, have the inside track to winning the East, which is just a step away from another College Football Playoff berth.
Penn State, at 8-1, would love to disrupt Michigan's plans. But the question remains: Can the Lions keep this contest close?
NCAAF Betting Odds Analysis
The Week 11 college football betting market opened with Michigan as a 5.5-point road favorite and an over/under of around 44. Early betting action nudged the spread to 4.5 and pushed the total to 45.5.
Michigan-Penn State Betting Preview
Michigan continued its dominant season by overpowering Purdue last week with a score of 41-13. The Wolverines scored the first 20 points and later extended their lead to 41-6. However, they allowed Purdue a late touchdown, which meant they did not cover the -31 spread.
The Wolverines outgained Purdue 445-269, with 75 of those yards allowed on Purdue's final drive.
Michigan has won its six Big Ten games this season by an average score of 46-7, yet they have faced a relatively light schedule so far.
With a 9-0 record, the Wolverines are vying for high stakes moving forward.
Conversely, Penn State has rebounded with two consecutive wins since their sole loss against Ohio State. They came off a commanding 51-15 victory over Maryland last Saturday. Favored by eight points, Penn State established an early lead and never looked back, outgaining the Terrapins 404-234 and dominating the turnover battle.
At 5-1 in conference play, the Nittany Lions still have a shot at the Big Ten East title.
Under Coach Franklin, Penn State has faced Coach Harbaugh's Michigan with the Wolverines holding a 5-3 straight-up record and a 6-2 against the spread record. In last year's matchup, Michigan overcame a deficit to win decisively 41-17 and cover the spread as -7 favorites, amassing 418 rushing yards.
Michigan's games this season have split totals with a 4-4-1 record, averaging 47 points.
Penn State games have tended towards high scoring, with a 6-3 record on the overs, averaging 52 points.
Historically, the overs are 6-2 over the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Wolverines vs Nittany Lions Betting Pick
While it may be popular to root against Michigan, betting on them is a different story. The Wolverines are relentlessly defeating opponents and have embraced an "us against the world" mentality. Having won decisively in last season's matchup and showing improvement, they're poised for success again. The fact that this game is on the road also makes the spread more appealing. Our pick is on the Wolverines to cover on Saturday.