In a game that might well decide who wins the Big 10 West this season, Wisconsin meets Iowa on Saturday afternoon at Camp Randall.

The Badgers are 2-0 in Big Ten play, and the Hawkeyes are 2-1. But Iowa is also now playing with its backup quarterback, which probably accounts for the line on this game.

Who do we like for our free Iowa/Wisc pick?

NCAAF Betting Odds

This week's college football betting market opened Wisconsin at -9 over Iowa, with an over/under of right around 37. Early betting action then bumped the Badgers to -10 and dropped that total to 34.5.

Hawkeyes Betting Preview

Iowa is 2-1 in Big 10 play after beating Purdue last week 20-14. The Hawkeyes drew first blood on a long touchdown run five minutes into the game, led 10-7 at the half, then scored the first 10 points of the second half and held on from there for the win and the cover at -1.5.

Iowa actually got out-gained by the Boilermakers 357-291, and as mentioned above, 67 of the Hawkeyes' yards came on one play. They also lost time of possession by a 35:25 split. But the defense came up with some good bend-don't-break play to keep the Boilers at bay.

Three games ago, Iowa opened its Big 10 slate with a 31-0 embarrassment at Penn State. Two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes needed to come from behind to beat Michigan State 26-16.

On the personnel front, Iowa got RB Kaleb Johnson back last week, and he ran for 134 yards. But the Hawkeyes are also now operating with backup QB Deacon Hill - no relation to Wisconsin's Bascom Hill - in place of injured starter Cade McNamara.

Iowa returned 15 starters this season from a team that played 5-4 in-conference last season. So, a run at the West Division title was expected. But this team - this offense, in particular - was underperforming even before McNamara got hurt.

Badgers Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 2-0 in conference play after beating Rutgers last week 24-13. The Badgers led that game 10-0 just before the half, then used a 95-yard pick-6 to lead 17-0 into the locker room. Wisconsin let the Knights get within 17-6 late in the third quarter but immediately drove 72 yards to a touchdown and held on from there.

However, a late Rutgers score cost the Badgers the cover at -13.

Wisconsin out-gained the Knights 358-275 and won the ground battle 213-64.

Two games ago, the Badgers won at Purdue 38-17 and covered at -6.

Wisconsin returned 17 starters this season from a team that played 4-5 in the Big 10 last year. Even with the new head coach and new systems, the Badgers went off as the favorites to win the West.

Iowa-Wisconsin Recent History

The Badgers beat the Hawkeyes four times in a row through 2019, but Iowa is 2-1 SU over the last three meetings and 3-1 ATS over the last four. Last year, the Hawkeyes used a second-quarter pick-6 to beat Wisconsin 24-10 despite amassing just 146 yards of total offense.

College Football Betting Trends

Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a double-digit dog.

Totals Report

• The unders are 4-2 in Hawkeyes games this season, which are averaging 38 total points.
• The unders are 3-2 in Badgers games, which are averaging 50 points.
• The unders are 3-0 over the last three meetings between these teams.