Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Point Spread Pick
Date:
November 9, 12:00 pm
Location:
Kenan Stadium
Betting Odds
Point Spread:
North Carolina -7
Total:
58
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In ACC Week 10 action we have the Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels. Kickoff for this match is at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday November 6, 2015 on the grass of Kenan Stadium. The point spread line for the Duke/UNC game opened at North Carolina -8 but has moved to as low at -7 at some of the sports betting outlets.
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<p>
Duke in their last game lost 30-27 to Miami as a large -10 point favorite. The loss for the Blue Devils put an end to their four game winning streak. The point spread loss was their first in two games bringing their season ATS mark to 5-3 on the season. The 57 points soared over the total line of 51.
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North Carolina went into Pittsburgh and knocked off the panthers 26-19 getting the spread cover as a -1 favorite. The win was the Tar Heels seventh straight after losing their opener on the road by four points to the Gamecocks. The 45 points scored in the game fell under the total of 58.5 for their second straight UNDER and fifth in their eight games this year.
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The Tar Heels crushed the Blue Devils 45-20 last season as a 5-point favorite for their first victory in this series in three years. Over the last ten matches UNC holds a big in victories with eight, but is only 4-6 versus the spread.
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<strong>Here are some general statistics on each team.</strong>
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Duke is middle of the pack in most offensive categories ranking 48th in scoring offense, 51st in total yards and 54th in rushing yards. On the defensive side of the ball the rankings are fantastic ranking No. 10 in scoring defense and 8th in total yards.
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North Carolina is top 25 offensively in scoring, total yards and rushing yards. On the other side of the ball the Tar Heels are very strong with the 14th ranked scoring defense, third best passing defense and 43rd in total yards allowed.
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<strong>Sagarin Rankings</strong>
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Duke: 78.19<br />
UNC: 81.74
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<strong>Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends/Angles</strong>
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<ul>
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Duke is 11-4 against the spread vs. a team with a winning record.
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Duke is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
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UNC is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
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UNC is 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games on grass.
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UNC is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
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Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Point Spread Pick
The numbers for both teams seem about even with the Tar Heels having a small edge offensively and the Blue Devils having the edge defensively. However, once you break down Duke's schedule it becomes obvious that their opponent's in the first six games were one dimensional on offense. In the first six games they faced Army ranked 126th in passing yards per game, Boston College 124, Georgia Tech 121 and Tulane 91 allowing them to focus stopping the run. Once they faced teams with some sort of balance on offense in Miami and Virginia Tech they were torched for 73 points. The line is a lot higher than I like playing, but UNC at home against FBS opponents has won all by 34, 36 and 7 points, so it's not like they can't extend the margin.
Free Pick:
Take the North Carolina Tar Heels -7 -120 -RC
