The Ragin' Cajuns played poorly in their latest game against the Red Wolves falling by three points and while they were in this game until the final buzzer, they allowed Arkansas State to shoot 55.8% from the field. Their work on the boards kept them in the game, but that’s not something that they can count on happening against Arkansas-Little Rock who really gets out-rebounded. I’ll take the home side getting the small number.

Rice has played in just three lined games in their last 10 and while they did go 2-1 against the line they lost all three games. Charlotte has dropped three of their last four, but their opponent in all three losses would crush the Owls. These two clubs played three games last season with the 49ers taking all three including a 88-75 home victory as a -2 point spread favorite.

Jacksonville State has already squared off with teams such as Chattanooga and Maryland already and although they lost in both affairs, they are certainly more lathered up against premium competition as they took on a defending conference champion and a perennial Power Conference NCAA Tournament regular. To bolster their accolades, the Gamecocks most recently defeated the team with the best record in the Ohio Valley Conference on their own court, when they rolled Tennessee-Martin by a score of 90-72. Eastern Illinois’ best opponent is nowhere near the likes of Chattanooga or Maryland in terms of caliber. The feather in the cap for EIU this season is finally teeing off on a lowly Western Illinois on two separate occasions. While the Panthers may have since planted a foot in the rivalry series, their other victories came against Troy, South Alabama, Illinois-Chicago, Fontbonne and Saint Francis of Illinois. The best win overall for the Panthers was likely when they edged out Missouri by a three-pointer on the road in Columbia as a nine-point underdog. However, the Tigers stand at just 5-7 and currently on a four-game losing streak. The difference in strength of schedule will be the determining factor in this contest. Jacksonville State’s experience against bigger opponents than any foe EIU has faced all-season long will likely pay dividends for J-State. There is no reason to suspect they cannot win this one outright.

The Horned Frogs haven’t played much this season and when they did they faltered losing to the Mustangs by 1+2.5 dog. They are at home for this match, but I feel that the Jayhawks who have won 10 straight by more than today’s handicap a solid choice in this spot.

After a slow start to campaign Memphis has responded with a stretch of strong games and they’re our play here against a shorthanded South Carolina team.

Weber State qualified for the 2016 Men’s Basketball Tournament by virtue of winning the Big Sky Conference Championship. The Wildcats went 26-9 in the 2015-16 season but at this time last year they were standing at 8-5 contrary to the 5-6 record they currently sport. While much of this season remains to unfurl, it could be assessed that the Wildcats are not the same team we saw a year ago. Analytics would indicate both parties here rank towards the bottom of the list in terms of luck, meaning they both have had an overwhelming amount of misfortune. The one silver lining here for the Bobcats is that they get the Wildcats at home, where they have won all five of their victories this season. In spite of losing their previous six, the Bobcats are once again priced short as a pup. There is certainly a reason to look in to this. The Bobcats have lost five games this season by six points or less and astoundingly their average margin of victory is 14 points in their five victories. What we have here is a basketball team that has the potential to hit home runs but they often strike out on a foul-tip in the catcher’s glove (pardon the baseball analogy). With Weber State having a recent NCAA Tournament bid to bolster their name, the price here seems deceptively too good to be true and when it seems that way it is almost certainly is.

The availability of Florida C John Egbunu is in doubt and he’s likely to be a game time decision this week. If he can’t go or is limited in any way that will hurt the defense of the Gators. Both teams can score with Florida averaging 84.5 points in their two road games and Arkansas 85 points at home this season. The total has made its way down to 149 with the public all over the UNDER which makes this even more appealing.

St. Johns really stepped it up in their latest with a confidence boosting 93-60 blowout win over Syracuse and I think that they’re worthy of a play with more than a handful of points. Butler was on a roll with two nice wins over Cincinnati and Indiana before coasting to an easy win over Vermont. They do come into this game on a break of over a week and may not be at their best in their first back.

The Bruins have shown no signs of slowing down and now are expected to get C Thomas Welch back who missed the last three games. The Ducks are unbeaten at home but don’t really have a signature win for us to believe that they can give UCLA a tough challenge.

The Cavaliers are 4-0 away from home, but this is easily their toughest opponent that have faced. That said, both teams have exceptional defenses, but Virginia’s is better holding their opponents to 47.2 points per game. I think that Louisville may be a little too full of themselves after their big win over Kentucky and Virginia may be able to get the best of them here.

The situation affords us a rare chance to take back Memphis with likely enhanced points. SMU has owned Memphis in the conference rivalry series and when combining that with the recent scourge of Mustang victories, an overreaction is likely to be fostered on behalf of the Mustangs. Typically we would expect this to be the case with a name brand team like Memphis. Such narratives set up the Tigers for a huge fall against Monmouth. However, those who were taking back points with Memphis against Oklahoma reaped the rewards adhering to the same principle of laying teams with high stock and/or recognized names. Oklahoma has both given what they achieved in the 2015-16 season. However, despite all the futility shown by Memphis and the supremacy imposed by SMU this market opened at a marginal increment separating the two. There is a reason for this and in spite of the Mustangs having the Tigers number as of recent, the assessment is that this one will be a brawl. Do not be surprised if the Tigers sneak up on yet another team they are pitted as an underdog against.

Wake Forest is undefeated at home but they don’t have what I’d call a quality win in their four victories. Two of the games were unlined and the other two the Demon Deacons were favored by double digits over lowly Coastal Carolina and a mediocre Charlotte team. LSU hasn’t fared well away from home going 1-2 in neutral site games. The schedule maker wasn’t kind to them with this their third game in five days, but at this time of the year that may help in keeping them focused. This line continues to grow with both public and sharp money siding with the home team, but I think the visitor gets the money here.

Wyoming may be cast as a bit of an overachiever so far but they have some convincing performances to dismiss those sentiments. This is an ensemble that soundly defeated Denver and Northern Iowa in back-to-back games to kick off their current six-game winning streak. Furthermore in the preliminary stages of their campaign, the Cowboys rolled the San Diego State Aztecs by ten points off the heel of a dominant win against Montana as a 5.5 point pup on the road. Montana would come to town on December 10th and Wyoming would dismiss them again, this time by incremental margins. While the Cowboys may have failed to cover in this scenario, their stock was more likely to be inflated by virtue of what occurred earlier this season. It is very difficult to beat any team twice in the same season yet Wyoming was able to do so with Montana. There was no signs of attrition as a result because the Cowboys would follow-up their Montana win with a rout of Cornell where they would cover by the double the price. The point we are trying to make here as that regardless of whatever the numbers say, the Cowboys’ portfolio of performances have been extremely convincing of a high quality basketball team. With much of the public remaining skeptical, now is the perfect time to fade the consensus and take the better team with points.

We’re not getting the best of the line here, but any time you can get an undefeated home team with a decent percentage of getting the victory you take the points.

Kentucky’s only loss was against UCLA who shot a ridiculous 53% from the field and that’s not a number that Louisville is likely to reach. The Cardinals have played excellent defense this season holding their opponents to 59.4 points per game on 35.9% shooting, but their schedule hasn’t been daunting and the Wildcats are a completely different animal then they have faced. The value in on the visitor who basically just needs to get the victory.

The records do not reveal the true fabric of either of these teams. Portland has been lucky and won some games they should have lost while an opposite course of events took place for the Vikings. Portland State winning outright as a significant underdog in their last two on the road where they were undervalued and Portland being smoked when they were an underdog that was overvalued reflects this. A rivalry game of this caliber is the perfect venue for the Vikings to turn their luck around and alter the course of fate. The Pilots have defeated Pepperdine and San Francisco on the road as an underdog taking back a price tag of at least 8.5 in either of these contests. Now we see them here once again in a similar position with the public fading the Vikings regardless of their recent results. Portland has yet to procure any outcome similar to this as they were pummeled by UCLA and beaten significantly by Dayton when they were taking back the most points this season. Not only can Portland State cover, they can pull off the upset against their biggest rival while abruptly ending the Pilots recent dominance in this cross-city rivalry. While it is tempting to take Portland State on the Money Line, it is recommended to keep this one conservative and take the points. While Portland may have the better record they have also played a weaker schedule and this will catch up with them.

Arizona State was shocked by lowly New Mexico State 81-70 in an unlined game in their latest, so they should put out a top effort tonight. That was the only home game that the Sun Devils lost as a host this season and I believe they’ll give the Bluejays all they can handle tonight. I don’t expect an outright victory, but I do think that they can keep this within the assigned point spread line.

SMU has been crushing opponents aa a host going 7-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread. Stanford has done OK away from home going 3-1 on a neutral court and 0-1 as a visitor. The road loss is alarming though getting outscored 89-74 and allowing Kansas to shoot in the 50% from the field and 3-point land. The last two Cardinal losses have been by double digits and this will make it three.

Both of these squads have been inconsistent, but one thing has been constant is the scoring of Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have averaged 93.8 points over their last five and have scored into the 70’s in all but one game this season. Syracuse hasn’t been on offensive juggernaut, but has scored well in games against teams that aren’t in top echelon. The Orange have averaged 84.6 points at home this season and a number in that ballpark should send this game well past the total line.

We are going to go ahead and hop aboard the Mocs here as they are a true value play. Situational betting is what we stress and we saw this same situation take shape to kick off the 2016 season when the Mocs traveled to Knoxville to face the Tennessee Volunteers who came in spotting the same amount of points to Chattanooga. The rest is history. The Mocs are coming in off a 29 win effort in the 2015-16 season where they emerged champion of Southern Conference and earned a berth to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament as a #12 seed. Chattanooga has appeared readily capable of achieving such accolades again as they have won seven of their last eight. Vanderbilt while they are 4-1 this year in Nashville, lost at home against Bucknell as a twelve-point favorite. This team has been overvalued in a multitude of occasions whether they were taking back too few points as a underdog or giving away too many as a favorite. Similar to what happened earlier this year with Chattanooga and Tennessee we have another situation where we are able to get a better team at an excellently affable price. While the Commodores of Vanderbilt feature a #19 ranking next to their name, a hidden premium is almost always assessed for taking action on them. Chattanooga is the more comprehensive choice as their current record and recent achievements speak for themselves. The Mocs are on a roll and certainly are the better team at the moment and they will glance at this Vanderbilt fixture as another chance to boost their resume and RPI ratings. Do not be shocked if Chattanooga pulls off an upset outright in this one.