The Aggies have lost four of their last five games including two games that they were favored in. The Razorbacks have dropped two of three in true road games, but the two losses were to two teams that are far superior to Texas A&M. TAM may win this game, but aren’t worthy of a handicap.

I’m going to have to jump on the UNDER in this game. The Cyclones know that the only way that can win this game is if they limit the opportunities and play lights out defense. That’s something that Iowa State has done at home this season holding opposition to 59.6 points per game on a ridiculous 33.8 shooting. It’s a big step up to Kansas compared to the majority of the teams they have faced, but the Jayhawks shooting really falls off on the road with an over 7 percentage point drop to 42.6 FG%. On the other end of the court Kansas allowed 67.7 PPG in three road games with two of the three matches going falling UNDER the total. 

The Friars have lost all five of their true road games and have failed to cover the spread in the last four. They’ve been the dog in four of the games and covered only their first in that role losing to Ohio State 72-67 as a +6.5 favorite. Providence does have an edge on the boards and did the win the battle in their earlier contest, but their shooting numbers on the road are extremely poor shooting a dismal 39%. Look for Georgetown to avenge the loss with some strong defense play tonight. The Hoyas have allowed their opponents 68.2 points per game at home this season and considering the Friars road scoring issues, I think they can improve on that number tonight.

The Wolfpack have yet to lose at home this but what quality win do they have? They’ve destroyed a bunch of overmatched teams as expected. Their destruction of VT wasn’t that impressive when you factor in the situation with the Hokies hitting the road feeling a little too full of themselves after knocking off Duke. The Yellow Jackets in their last road tilt got destroyed at Duke, but the narrative is the same as previously mentioned. Georgia Tech was coming off of a shocking 12-point win over UNC as a 17-point home dog and came up flat against the Blue Devils. GT is only 1-3 on the road this season, but did have a good one two back against VCU getting the straight up win in OT. NC State has scored an average of 87.8 points while allowing just 69.3 points per game to their opposition, but I think we have a live dog here who could win this outright if they play to their full abilities.

The linesmaker opened this line at -7 thinking that the public would go to the window backing the Zags with both fist s and they have, but the sharps have come in on the Gaels driving this line down to -5.5. St. Mary’s did win two of three in this series last season including a 63-55 win on this court as a 5.5 point dog. 

Given the fact that Little Rock gets this game at home and perhaps most prevailing and compelling of all, the Trojans are the sitting Sun Belt Conference Champion, a 30-game winner in the 2015-16 campaign and author of the upset of a #5 seed Purdue in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, the Trojans may seem to be a sexier pick from first glance. Though the two teams have identical records, the Red Wolves have played a much stronger compared to that of the Trojans, even more so in out-of-conference applications. Little Rock has benefitted from some good calls and thus the records are not truly reflective of the quality of each team. The Red Wolves are a dangerous team to overlook, as this is a team that beat Georgetown, Tennessee-Martin and Chattanooga on the road. In some of these contests, the take back in terms of points for the Red Wolves was enormous and showcases how undervalued this team can truly be. Contrarily, the Trojans have been overvalued all season long and this scenario sets them up for yet another let down. The Red Wolves are once again in a great spot to be a live dog and defeat their arch rival on their own court. Tremendous value on the Red Wolves.

Both of the games between these two teams went over the total and I can’t see why it wouldn’t again tonight. Yale and Penn have not played great defense this season in this role with the Bulldogs allowing 72.6 points on 42.4 shooting and the Quakers 69.6 on 41.8 shooting. I think we'll see a game in the low to mid 140's. 

As stated in the analysis, the underdog has been a profitable dividend in this series as of late and this further reinforces playing on San Diego as the Toreros are 9-3 ATS on the season. Regardless of their ability to put together an impressive road win at Pepperdine as an underdog, no one wants a piece of the Toreros. Santa Clara takers will likely emphasize and cite the Broncos defeating Valparaiso in overtime on the road as a heavy dog as the rationale to stick with SCU combined with their recent slew of victories in this rivalry series. However, teams such as Santa Clara and San Diego are more prone to be undervalued because they do not come from high-profile conferences or even bolster a prestigious name or reputation. However, that angle cannot be exploited here be that both teams are more or less of the same pedigree. The fact remains that the Broncos are 1-4 on the road this year and they have had some difficult losses to stomach. Most recently, as a favorite, the Broncos were pummeled by Loyola Marymount. Mirroring this trend and the fact San Diego has been solid at home all season long, the Toreros have been waiting to avenge the two losses they suffered against the Broncos recently in the most gut-wrenching of fashions. Now, the Toreros get them at home and can further test the constitution of the Broncos away from Santa Clara. Given the fact, the Toreros score more points, collect more rebounds and shoot better from the free-throw line we have to like their chances in this one as yet another live dog in this underdog-favoring rivalry.

The Iowa got destroyed on the road vs. Purdue but can rebound here tonight. They shot a putrid 37.3% from the floor and 23.5% from behind the arc and they should rebound tonight at Carver-Hawkeye Arena where they have averaged 88.5 points per game on 47.8 shooting. The host has gotten the victory in seven of the last eight in this series and while I’m not calling for an outright win, I’ll take the half dozen points.

I could make an argument for both teams covering the spread, but the number on board for the total of this game offers the most value. Butler has been held to under 70 regulation points in two of their last nine games and will face a Creighton defense that has not be impressive this allowing 75.2 points per game. They’re scoring defense has better numbers at home, but that’s more to do with the competition. The Bluejays have no problem scoring anywhere shooting a ridiculous 53.4 from the field. They’ve managed 77 or more points per game in all but one game this season and that came against Nova’s top defensive unit.

UNC’s scoring both offensively and defensively drops off significantly as a visitor as reflected in their record of 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread with the only cover coming by a half of a point in overtime. Wake Forest has played well at home dropping just one game and may catch the Tar heels looking ahead to their match against the Seminoles on Saturday.

The Gophers lost in overtime to the Spartans back on December 27th, blowing a large first half lead. They responded to that loss with back to back road wins over Purdue and Northwestern before coasting to an easy win over Ohio State in their latest. Minnesota continues to be under-rated with a loss to Florida State on the road as their only other blemish on their record. Taking the points is the way to go here.

I’d probably back Florida State in this spot even if Duke was healthy, but they’re not. F Amile Jefferson has been ruled out and they may be weaker off of the bench with Forwards Javin Delaurier and Chase Jeter questionable to play tonight. The Seminoles only blemish this season is a three point loss on a neutral court to at the time a sizzling Temple team.

In their last three outings, Kentucky has been given away huge allotments of points to the competition and they have put the wood to teams like Ole Miss, Texas A&M and most recently Arkansas. However, Vanderbilt owns some intangibles in this affair worth taking in to consideration. The Commodores while they own an 8-7 record this year, are 6-1 on their own court. The Commodores also regale in the fact that they are the owners of the most recent win in this series. Vanderbilt without question recalls this game and uses it as a point of reference and motivation. When there is a strong potential for many to be overlooking them, this allows them to play the role of a sleeper impeccably. In Nashville this year, Vanderbilt has defeated Chattanooga they went muzzle-to-muzzle with Minnesota away from home. Additionally, the Dores played a stronger schedule on paper than Kentucky. With all these variables taken in to consideration, Kentucky is prone for a let-down performance given the public propensity matched with recent results. The Commodores are coming in on a low note as they lost on the road at Bama while Kentucky has smoked everyone they have come across since the Louisville loss. The Commodores can once again come in off the radar while having home court advantage and possibly a mental edge even if they are unranked with a far less impressive record. Vandy owns a stronger defense and are a better free-throw shooting team compared to Big Blue which cultivates the possibility for this squad to be a live dog yet again on their own court again a likely overvalued Kentucky.

The Musketeers improved their road shooting against the Hoyas getting their first road win of the season, but they weren’t sharp shooter going 23 of 59 from the field.  Even with the Georgetown game factored in Xavier is an unimpressive 1-2 on the road with a 36 FG% and a 29.7 3-Point% scoring an average of 69.3 points. Villanova has been dominant at home outscoring the opposition 81.1 to 57.6 and while the competition hasn’t been fierce they have won all but one of their home matches by more than 10 points. The home team has won and covered the last three and after tonight that number will be four. 

The public is all over Baylor in this game taking the 6-points on this unbeaten team. I’m going to go the other way here backing a West Virginia team that has dropped two games on the season, but they were away from home. As a host the Mountaineers have been crushing opponents outscoring them on average 95.8 to 59.7. The competition wasn’t strong, but the closest a rival came was TCU in their latest and the margin was 12 points. The Bears have only one true road test this season and while they did have a strong game, they were the favorite over a very weak Oklahoma team.

Two struggling teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic meet on Monday night in an ugly game. Quinnipiac has averaged 72.2 points on the road this season and with St. Peter’s averaging a paltry 68.3 points as a host the spread value is on the visitor. The Bobcats play better on both ends of the court and are the play here.

Troy’s record is a dismal 1-7 in true road games while Georgia State is a decent 5-1 as a host. Digging into the numbers the Trojans haven’t played that poorly as a visitor as of late getting the cover in their last five going 1-4 with the largest losing margin being by 6 points to Wyoming. The Panthers on the other hand are a poor 0-3 at home in lined games going 2-1 with the largest margin of victory in the two wins being by 7 over Wright State as a 9-point favorite.

Both one of these teams has a negative record against the spread and the Chanticleers don’t have an enviable home record barely over .500 at 5-4. Coastal Carolina however, is where my money is going to land. They’re coming off of an impressive victory over Arkansas State and their second straight underdog win. Chanticleers Forward Demario Beck has really stepped up his game on the boards with 24 in his last two games and that’s where this game is won.

The Hoyas come into this game on a four game losing streak and while they weren’t embarrassed in those four games they certainly don’t deserve being a favorite of this size based on their recent form. Their body of work at home shows not one victory over an opponent in the same class level as the Red Storm. Georgetown does hold an edge on the glass, so I wouldn’t go crazy on this game, but the obvious pick on the spread is St. John’s.