The last four home games for Memphis have averaged 121.5 points with all four falling well below today’s total line. Central Florida plays very good defense overall and on the road holding the opposition to 68 points on 40.4 shooting as a visitor.

Earlier this season Colorado State was offered as 13.5 point underdog when they went to Boulder to face their arch rival Colorado. The public was heavily against the Rams and nevertheless CSU would defeat the Buffs by a fourteen points. Heading in to the affair, the Buffs had also exerted their will in the rivalry series and this substantiated the public being so apt to spot points to the visiting Rams. A similar situation seems to be coming to fruition here as Utah State has won their previous two encounters with the Rams. Overall, the Aggies have won five of their last six against Colorado State and thus they seem to be the more qualitative selection in this market. Nevertheless, it is difficult to ascertain how Colorado State could be offered as a dog under any other circumstance. The Rams have the better record and an overall better catalogue of road performances compared to Utah State’s dossier of home victories. Both teams are gasping for a victory be that both are riding two-game losing streaks. For Utah State this may seem like the ideal situation to get out of their funk. However, Colorado State likely will see this an opportunity to make strides as a program and rid themselves of a pest that has haunted them a lot as of late. The Rams may just pull off the upset let alone cover in this contest. Utah State is facing a better Colorado State team than they have in years’ past.

Teams that loss straight up to a large underdog can either come out highly motivated or struggle with their confidence in the first game after the event. In college sports that tends to be a poor game. That’s the situation that the Mountaineers find themselves in. Kansas State has dropped three of their last five, but two of the losses were by two or fewer points. I’ll place my bet on the live home dog.

The Badgers are just 2-2 straight up on the road this season, but do have a positive return for their backers going 2-1-1 against the spread. That said, their taking on a surprising Gophers team that has lost just one game at home this season and that came in overtime by 1 against the Spartans. That was the only game that the Golden Gophers didn’t win by at least six points. Wisconsin may be the better team, but in this role the value lands on the host and with starting Forward Vitto Brown questionable to play with a knee injury that makes this a solid bet.

The Bruins have just one blemish on their record a narrow 2-point loss on the road at Oregon. At home they’ve been outstanding going 11-0 with the smallest margin of victory being 10 points against Cal. That’s all and good, but they haven’t faced a team as strong as Arizona. The Wildcats did drop two neutral site games, but they have yet to lose on the road going 4-0 including 3-0 against their conference. This is just too many points to lay against a visitor who hasn’t lost since the beginning of December and one that has played exceptional defense on the road.

Florida State’s only losses this came to Temple on a neutral court and to very good UNC team on the road two starts back. That seemed to jar their confidence squeezing out a narrow three point victory over ND in the follow up. I think that they’ll step up big on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals have put together a good run and surprised many sharps with their blow out win over Clemson on Thursday. FSU has a 20-point edge in scoring at home this season beating some quality some quality opponents in Notre Dame, Duke and Wake Forest and while I don’t expect the Louisville to roll over here the spread is low enough to give value to the home side.

The majority of Yale’s wins have come in unlined games and their only quality win came in their season opener against Washington. Both of their Ivy League games were on the road, but they haven’t impressed beating losing to Princeton and beating Penn by 6. Brown has also had both of their conference on the road with same result, but they easily distanced themselves from the Quakers winning by 12. The Bulldogs are expecting Anthony Dallier back after missing last game, which will help Yale, but this game should be more in the pick’em range.

EMU had a bad stretch back in the middle of December but has won six of their last seven games including two MAC wins on the road. Akron did put away Ohio by 25 points in their latest easily covering the 6-point line for their eighth straight victory. However, they don’t always extend the margin with their previous four matches against the MAC being by seven are fewer points failing to get the point spread cover in three of those games. The value is on the visitor.

Clemson has played well on the road going 2-2 with wins over Wake Forest and South Carolina. They did lose by 5 to Notre Dame in a game that wasn’t decided until 9 seconds were left on the clock. They catch Louisville banged up losing G Quentin Snider to a hip flexor injury and are a live dog in this spot.

Arizona has just two losses on the season coming against Butler and Gonzaga and even the most biased Trojan fan couldn’t place USC in the same classification. Only the Wildcats first win of the season was by less than today’s handicap.

The Cougars have been very underwhelming at home this season losing two of their last three and failing to cover the line in all three. Memphis hasn’t played all that bad on the road destroying Tulane 80-59 and knocking off Oklahoma 99-94 in overtime. I’ll take the generous points offered.

We’ve seen Belmont in this position before. The Bruins are virtually a household name at this point when it comes to mid-major programs appearing in the Final Four on basically an annual basis. By virtue of this alone, the Bruins are often overvalued. Belmont is a frequenter of spotting more points than they should be, especially when they are playing host. There are many compelling arguments against spotting the points. First, Jacksonville State edges out Belmont in field goal percentage. When it comes to three-point shooting Jacksonville State is one of the best in the country as they hit 39% from the beyond the arc achieving a 39th ranked national mark. Furthermore, the Gamecocks commit less turnovers, play stronger defense and are the better rebounding team compared to the Bruins both on offense and defense. Jacksonville State is ranked 38th nationally in defensive rebounds. In addition to this, the Bruins are apparently one of the best teams to shoot free throws against as they rank towards the bottom of the list in opponent free throw percentage (357th nationally). Once again this allows a team like Jacksonville State to malinger in this contest which again makes Belmont a dicey team to spot points with. When you factor in all these variables with Belmont’s vulnerability to be overvalued, Jacksonville State is once again situated to bode tremendous value. Even if most of the public has caught on we won’t change our position because it the Gamecocks are now a better team than Belmont has faced previously and even then the Gamecocks have yielded success previously in this distinct situation as a team with a losing record.

After dropping a game against Nebraska, Maryland reeled off three straight outright wins as a dog. They go into this game in that role again and one thing that can’t be argued is the inconsistent play of Iowa. However, the Hawkeyes are much better at home and while they don’t often extend the margin against this calibre team they haven’t lost a game at home since November.

Miami has dropped two of three with their lone win coming over a beat up Pittsburgh team. Their road record isn’t very impressive when you consider that their two wins came against the aforementioned Pitt team and a victory over North Florida in an unlined game. Their only game against a decent team they lost by 15 to Syracuse.

Penn State comes into this game off of two sharp wins and may catch Indiana in a bad spot without Juwan Morgan (Game Time Decision). The Hoosiers come into this game not having a victory as a in two true road games with a FG% 8.5 percentage points lower than their overall shooting percentage. I’ll take the points with the home side.

The Seminoles haven’t dropped a game as a host this season winning all 12 and going 8-2 against the spread in lined games. After their previous loss Florida State easily took care of Illinois winning by 9 as a 7.5 point favorite to start a 12 game winning streak The Fighting Irish have gone 3-0 on the road this season beating some decent clubs, but no one in the Seminoles class. Florida State’s last three home games have been impressive beating Duke, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest all by 15 or more points. Lay the points.

The Gators have failed in two tests against a quality opponent and while the Gamecocks could be classified as a quality opponent in my opinion they are not in the same class as the Blue Devils or the Semionoles.Florida is playing very well right now and I believe that going to overtime in their latest will add to their focus for this game.

This game cannot be broken down by wins and losses or quantified by records in conference play. The Panthers clearly have the competitive edge here as they have dominated this series as of late. Wisconsin-Milwaukee, while they stand at 5-13 on the year overall in straight-up markets are 9-7 ATS for just cause. This is a team that has been undervalued far more than they should and have not been given the respect they deserve for some of the outcomes they have cultivated. This is a club that has played a lot of good teams tough. Teams such as Green Bay, Middle Tennessee State, Ohio and Memphis where they were able to give these outfits trouble on the road. This team also gave Belmont a scrap when they came to Milwaukee earlier this season. All five of these teams were vying or managed to get in to the 2016 Men’s Basketball Tournament. The only team that the Flames have encountered recently that stacks up to any of these aforementioned teams Milwaukee has played is a true false favorite in Oakland. The Panthers have played a much tougher schedule on paper than the Flames and this often allows records to be deceiving as a result. Illinois-Chicago has lost to teams such as Grand Canyon which showcases their inconsistency and debunks viability of them being a true winning team. This team has been a bottom feeder that put together a slew of wins on a padded schedule and now they get one of their tougher tests against a team with a deceptive record of their own which does not showcase how battle-tested they already are. Wisconsin-Milwaukee will look to change the tide of their season with a win here. Overall quality of competition will be the defining factor in this affair.

The Panthers Forward Michael Young had a terrible game going 0 for 10 from the field dealing with an eye injury (wearing a mask) and it’s unlikely that he’ll be anywhere near fully recovered by this game. The Wolfpack have struggled in their last five games on the defensive side of the ball allowing opponents to shoot 47.3 from the field but may be able to improve against Pitt’s banged up unit. The big difference tonight will be on the boards.

Ohio managed just 49 points in their latest versus EMU when they lost Forward Antonio Campbell after he had played 3 minutes. He’s unlikely to go again tonight and if he doesn’t I don’t think that the Bobcats scoring will reach the 70 points and my numbers show a 63.. The Akron defenses has allowed just 66.3 points per game at home this season and keep in mind that this is a team that held Gonzaga to 61 and Creighton to 82. Akron has scored an average of 82.3 at home this season on 50.8 shooting but Ohio has done a good job on the road holding the opposition to just over 40% from the field.