Louisville has been playing fantastic winning seven of their last eight games with the only loss being on the road to a very good FSU team. The Cardinals have struggled against teams playing high quality defense like the Seminoles have been in recent games. Their other three losses came against Notre Dame, Virginia and Baylor. UVA can be beaten at home as proven by losses to FSU and WVU, but when they do win they usually cover going 7-2 against the line in thier victories. Virginia won by eight on the road against Louisville back in late December and I forecast a repeat of the same tonight.

East Tennessee State is having a very succesful conference season with an 8-2 record and they've been equally effective at home and on the road going 4-1 in both roles. They've scored 83.2 points per game over the 10 matches which is a 3-point advantage over their seasonal average. Wofford has just the one loss at home and that was a shocker losing to the Citadel 104-103 as a 15 point favorite. The Terriers have a good 81.18 in conference play and averaged 89 points per game at home this season on an ridiculous 52 FG% shooting. These two combined for 151 points in their earlier meeting and Wofford's seasonal scoring average as a host suggest that we may exceed that number.

Colorado is on a nice little roll winning 3-straight including knocking off a very good Oregon team. Keep in mind though that two of those games were at home and while the win over a decent Stanford team on the road is worthy of some praise Cal is a completely different animal. The Bears have won all but one of their six Pac-12 home games losing by 5 to Arizona That said, they've been a poor bet at Haas Pavillion going 2-4 ATS in their six conference home games and meet a team who has a lot of fight with their last three losses being by a combined seven points.

Nebraska is only 4-6 in Big Ten games. but with a any kind of luck those number could be reversed. The Cornhuskers lost by 1 to Rutgers on the road and by the same number to Ohio State at home and while they are 2-3 on the road they have beaten both Maryland and Indiana. Iowa lost earlier to Nebraska in overtime on the road and I expect this game to be equally contested. The Hawkeyes have played since Monday and may show some rust early in this game giving more value to this selection.

Neither team is playing their best ball right now, with the Irish losing four of thier last five and the Tar Heels are coming off of a narrow two point win over Pitt as a -19 favorite and a prior to that a 15 point road loss to Miami. Therefore I'm going to stay away from a point spread bet and play the total. Notre Dame allowed 84 points to Duke and 83 to FSU and now face North Carolina's No. 4 scoring offense in the country averaging 87.3 points. The defense of the Tar heels has been struggling in recent games allowing middle of the road offenses to score in the 70's and we may need ND to put up their seasonal road average to cross the total.

We are once again going to target Davis as we cannot gauge how they will respond to their loss at Cal Poly. Davis had recently necked itself forward in the Big West race after they took down the former frontrunner UC-Irvine. Despite the loss, the Aggies remain atop the standings and a favorite to win the Big West outright. What this situation sets up ideally, is a bounce-back situation for the Aggies after they were caught with their hand in the cookie jar on Thursday. However, one certitude remains true…the Big West is a very unpredictable conference and it is filled to the brim with bottom-feeders that beat upon each other on a regular basis. Furthermore, the premier teams in this conference do not seem to be profoundly better than the lower-tier competition because we see so many road upsets or favorites fail to cover points they are spotting on a regular basis. While the Aggies may certainly have the better record on paper this season, Davis has had a tough time dealing with Santa Barbara as a whole and given the fact their morale may be low heading on the Gauchos’ court, Davis cannot be trusted spotting points in this situation.

Two teams going in opposite directions. Kentucky has lost two of their last three and needed overtime in their lone win over Georgia.  Florida dropped back to back games back on January 18th and 21st, but have rebounded big time with blowout wins over LSU (35 points) and Oklahoma (32) on the road and at home against Missouri (39).  Here's a stat to chew on; The Gators in their last five have allowed 60.4 points on a 35.3 FG% while the Wildcats have allowed 78.4 points on a 48.4% FG%.

In this situation, the emphasis is on Atlanta’s impressive road win at Houston as the Rockets for intent and purposes are one of the better teams in the league, let alone the wild Western Conference. As a 9.5-point pooch, Atlanta’s win is bound to foster an overreaction and completely dismiss Orlando who took down Toronto at home last night. Toronto is far more human when they are not in the Great White North and perhaps the selling point is a road victory versus a home victory combined with Atlanta’s recent drubbing of this team. What this essentially entails is that Atlanta is set-up for a let-down as the sheer fanfare fosters this kind of a scenario. While Orlando’s offense certainly needs improvement, Atlanta’s defense will likely dictate the flow of this game. Bottom line neither of these two teams are really offense-oriented basketball teams which allows for this game to be close as a result from an overall curtailing of scoring. This contest will be decided likely by which teams makes less mistakes, which at the moment is Orlando who commits less turnovers. Expect Orlando to hang around.

This has the makings of a great game, but from a betting perspective making a strong argument for either side versus the spread requires a manipulation of the metrics. So I'm going to play the total. Both clubs have been playing elite defense with Arizona holding opponents to 63.2 points on 38.2 FG% shooting on the road  and Oregon holding the opposition to 62.7 FG% on 37.4 FG% shooting at home. We could see a scoring outburt similar to Arizona's road game against UCLA (181 combined points), but the probabilty is low. 

I'm taking the public side on this game. Xavier is 2-2 in conference play beating an  inconsistent Georgetown team and mediocre St. John's. The Musketeers have 11-1 at home this season with the loss coming against Creighton. The Bluejays have lost two games at home this season, both coming in Big East play, but their losses came against two very good shooting teams in Villanova No. 12 (49.3) and Marquette No. 23 (48.6) in FG%. Xavier comes into trhis game with 45.1 FG% good for 145th in the nation and on the road they've been disasterous sinking just 38.6 of their shots from the field. 

The Bulls offense has been on the rise in recent games scoring 88.33 points per game in their last three sending the total over the closing line by large margins. In the earlier meeting these two teams combined for 169 points which has been the trend in this series with nine games going OVER the offered O/U line.

Iona is only 3-3 against their conference on the road this season but they have won their last two and an overtime loss is the only thing keeping them from coming into this game on a 7-game conference win streak. Rider have shown that they can play defense at home and have been rewarded wih five victories going 5-2 overall and 3-2 at against the conference. Keep in mind that two of the wins came against Metro Atlantic bottom feeding Niagara and Marist with the other a two point win over a mediocre Siena team back in early December.

Yale hasn't inpressed on the road in conference games. They did go 2-1 in their three matches. but a 1-point win versus Brown and an 8-point loss at Princeton doesn't have me runnnig to the window to lay down on them. Columbia is 2-1 straight up at home versus Ivy League teams with their loss coming to Cornell. They may have been to oconfident in that game after beating the Big Red on the road the previous week. Since that gmae they've won and covered against Harvard and Dartmouth and are a solid home dog tonight.

Davison is on a mini roll winning three consecutive games, but they have yet to a consistancy as a host in conference play going 2-2 SU and versus the line. Rhode Island has also been on a roll winning back to back home games and four of their last five, but like the home side they haven't been consistent as a visitor going 2-2 straight up and against the spread. What we can count on when these two play is a low scoring game and the recent numbers do support that trend. RI has allowed 70 or less points in three of their last four whileDavison has held six of their last seven opponents to 66 or fewer points. I have this game being in the mid 130's.

Last week it was Irvine. Now it is Davis’ position at the top of the Big West standings which is fueling this market. We have previously discussed how such situations can influence asking price of any given team. Cal Poly will show no timidity as they had no qualms taking down Irvine when they saw fit as Irvine came in to San Luis Obispo and fell in grisly fashion. The environment will once again be rocking as this one will more or less be for pride for the Mustangs. For Davis they transition from the role of the hunter to the hunted as the result they fostered against UCI has placed a huge target on their back. Such a result is also bound to foster an overreaction by the general public given the fact the Aggies are bound to be a trendy play given what they recently pulled off.

We urge takers to beware. The Big West is a conference full of parody and is a very bottom-heavy conference. More or less laying points in any capacity is a risky venture, especially when the team in question is the away team. The Cal Poly/UCI contest typifies this narrative. This market assessment is accurate and not skewed by any means. Though Davis may now be a #16 seed in some bracketologist’s predicted brackets, Cal Poly may have other ideas and look to take down the next team standing on top of the Big West hill. Do not be shocked if Cal Poly strikes again.

Gonzaga has been exceptional this season going 22-0 and rewarding its backers with a 15-4 against the spread mark. That said they may have a tough time padding their ATS mark tonight. BYU is a strong 12-1 at home losing only to Valparaiso by 3 back in Novemeber. These two teams have been in ultra competitve battles in their last three meeting with the three games being decided by a combined 8 points.

The Cougars haven't been lighting up the scoreboard, but can in this spot against the Seahawks underwhelming defensive unit that has allowed a 47.9 FG% at home to it's opppnents. NC-Wilmington routinely puts up scores into the 80's an can be expected to here against a Charleston defense without guard Payton Hulsy. 

The Spartans have been very mediocre in Big 10 play going 5-4 overall, and a poor 1-3 on the road. The spread numbers mirror the straight up records with Michigan State a bankroll depleting 1-3 versus the line. MSU's only road victory came in overtime against Minnesota. Nebraska is just 2-2 at home in conference games, but one of the losses came by a single point to Ohio State. They're some questionables on both clubs so get the best info on who is playing before you get down on this.

Baylor has dropped just one game this season and that came against West Virginia the same team that Kansas lost to in one of their two losses. The Bears play very good defense which is a key to being succesful on the road. The last two matches in this series played last season were decided by 6 or less points.

The Bearcats have been dominating the AAC winning all 8 of their games going 4-0 on both at home and on the road. They've outscored the competition by an average of just over 10 points per game with the last two wins being by a greater margin than tonight's spread. Tulsa is 4-0 as a host in conference action this season beating decent clubs including UCF and Memphis. Cincinnati could run away with this, but Tulsa has played well at the Reynolds Center lowering the probability of that happening. Take the points.