Kansas State battled Iowa State into the last minute before falling by 5 points but I'm not sold on them improving enough to get the win let alone cover the -3.5 handicap. The Wildcats have three wins at home to go along with three losses and while they did beat a good West Virginia team the other two victories came against Big 12 bottom feeders Oklahoma and Texas. The Cyclones are a ho-hum 3-3 on the road in conference play, but two of their three losses were by two points including a 65-63 road loss to Baylor and they have beaten Kansas.

The Terrapins have only result since the end of November that would have them losing against this -2 line ofered by the books. That game came two back against Penn State where they came out flat shooting an extremely poor 33.9% from the field and an 26.9% from behind the arc. That's very unlikely to repeat itself against Northwestern. The wildcats are only 3-2 at home straight up and against the spread in Big Ten home contests and are undermanned going into this game.

I think that the Gamecocks are undervalued here after dropping three straight against the spread. The Razorbacks have been a profitable bet on the road going 4-2 versus the line, but the only top tier team that have met is Kentucky who crushed them by 26. It's a huge line so go easy on this if your tailing.

In their three wins against the Broncos most recently, the Lobos were the undervalued team as they are 2-0-1 ATS in each of these results. Boise State has been a popular choice for pundits in their projected brackets for March Madness given their ride at the top of the Mountain West standings all season long. It would be critical not to overlook New Mexico and forget this is a Lobos team that was favored against New Mexico State at home and won in impressive fashion. The Aggies are currently sitting at 22-4 and are assuredly one of the best mid-major teams in all the country. The Lobos pummeled the Aggies at home and let it also be reiterated that the Lobos smoked Boise State on their own court, earlier this season as well. This is a basketball team that has met up with the likes of Dayton or Illinois State and played them tough, showcasing the fact they are not afraid to roll up their sleeves against any mid-major heavyweight. There is a reason why they are favored here. Given a lack of faith in the Lobos even with a proven ability to defeat the Broncos, it is most prudent to step in on reduced juice and likely a reduced price tag overall on this New Mexico team.

The Buckeyes are a poor 5-8 in Big Ten contests and an even worse 2-5 on the road straight up and against the spread. They're on a dismal 1-4 run versus the betting line and have covered in just one game that they've lost in conference action. The Spartans are a strong 5-1 at home in Big Ten games covering in all five victories. The lowest margin of victory was eight points exceeding tonight's handicap.

Mississippi State has averaged a solid 78 points per game while giving up 84 PPG on the road this season. The numbers drop to 75 for their offense and 77.4 for their defense overall in conference games but still point to an OVER in this game. Miss St. defense has been especially generous in recent road games allowing 98 to Auburn, 88 to Ole Miss, 71 to Alabama and 91 to Tennessee. In all four games their opponent scored more points than their seasonal average. Georgia's defense has been a strength this season, but they've tailed off in recent games allowing 72 or more points in four straight SEC games.

The Rockets are only 1-5 on Mid-American road games, but have played in their last two losing by four in overtime to Bowling Green and by one to Ball State. The Zips have been rolling through the MAC with a 10-1 record including 6-0 at home. That said, they don't always extend the margin with their last three home wins by a combined 10 points. They've been eating bettors' money with a 4-7 conference against the spread record.

The Hokies are coming off of an impressive win knocking off the Cavaliers 80-78 in double overtime on Sunday. They're likely to regress off of that win hitting the road to play the Panthers two days later. VT will also be without gaurd Chris Clark who is the team's leader in rebounds, FG% and steals. Pittsburgh has played erxtremely well in their last four games and while they did go just 2-2 two of the games came on the road against Duke and UNC and thewy didn't embarrass themselves in those two contests losing by two the Tar Heels and by 8 to Duke.

These two teams combined for 154 points in their early match-up in West Virginia in a game that the Jayhawks shot a poor 42.4%. Kansas has averaged 83.8 points at home in Big 12 games and that number increases to 88.2 overall in home games. The Mountaineers have scored 80.5 PPG in confernce play and should score in that rance or more against the Jayhawks team that has allowed 76.7 in Big 12 matches.

The earlier game was close but that was due to a poor shooting performance by Baylor who shot a feeble 35.4% from the field. It's likely that Baylor's shooting will improve this time around and with that an increase in their offensive production. The Red Raiders like most teams score better home averaging 80 points per game overall and note that they have scored 75 or more points per game in three straight home games.

The win by Rider over Quinnipiac was solid, but their overall body of work in their previous five games where they went 1-4 wasn't. Fairfield lost to the same Quinnipiac two back but the narrow 2-point loss is the only thing holding them from coming into this game on a five game win streak. Lay the points.

The Cardinals are beatable on the road going just 3-3 as a visitor in ACC road games. They fallen to Virginia, Florida State and Notre Dame. Three teams that play exceptional defense at home. Syracuse fits that mold allowing 64.1 points per game at home where they are 6-0 in conference play. They've beaten Virginia and Florida State in their last two home games and I expect them to add Louisville to the list after tonight.

The Aztecs are banged up, but the early line movement has me thinking that both forwards Zylan Cheatham and Max Hoetzel will play. Even if Hoetzel doesn't play San Diego State has enough scoring to beat Nevada. The Wolf Pack's road defense has been dismal this season giving up 77.6 points per game on 46% FG shooting. The Aztecs strength is their defense holding four of their five Mountain West opponents to under 70 points per game at home.

These two clubs played a close one in Cincinnati with the Bearcats prevailing by a slim two point margin and now the venue switches to the Moody Coliseum-Dallas. Smu is unbeaten at home this season crushing their opponents by an average margin of 22 points and against AAC opponets the lowest margin of victory was 14 points. Cincinnati is a handful, but here is a key metric to ponder. The Bearcats average 28.4% from behind the arc on the road and in their 2-point home win over the Mustangs they shot a brilliant 46.2 from 3-point land and are unlikely to beanywhere near that number today. Lay the points.

The last time these two met the Wolverines put 90 points on the board on a ridiculous 63.3 field goal percenatage and 55.0 3-point percentage. It would be foolish to this that they could hit anywhere near that today, but somewhere in the mid-70's is certainly possible. Michigan has played four Big Ten road games losing all four allowing an average of 74.2 points per game in regulation. Indiana has averaged 87.2 PPG at home this season and 75.3 overall in conference play and should reach a number in that range today.

Neither team is playing well enough for me to make a play on the spread, but the total looks viable. UVA plays some of the best defense in the land, but it does drop on the road to 61.3. Conference foes Syracuse, Clemson and Pittsburgh all were able to tally more than 65 points when they hosted Virginia and I beleive that Virginia Tech can do the same here. The Hokies have averaged 84.5 points at home this season and 74.2 overall in ACC matches. Defense has been VT's undoing allowing 79.8 points per game and have given up 70 or more in four of their five conference home games.

There is a lot of talk about this game ending the Zags unbeaten streak, but i'm not one of those. Sure the Gaels can put up a better fight then they did on the road when they were trounced by 23 points, but how much better can they be? The metrics don't support them closing the gap by anthing more than a handful of points. It's a square play but I can't see the margin being by less than double digits.

Having a good defense is key to having succewss on the road and that is exactly what South Carolina possesses. They've allowed just 66.64 points overall on the road in SEC games and with that a 9-2 record including 4-1 on the road straight up and a positive 3-2 against the spread record. Mississippi State has been a profitable bet in home conference games going 4-1 ATS and their last game at home was an impressive win over the Vols. I'll take the points here in what should be a similar game to their last at Humphrey Coliseum.

Fading mid-major teams with a reputation to defend is always a great play. Although Chattanooga enters this fixture with off loss against Furman, they still own a remarkable record and the designation of defending Southern Conference champion. These two narratives are enough to compel action on the Mocs. Still, teams of this nature are often most overvalued. This is reflected in the fact, Chattanooga is 1-8 ATS in their previous nine contests. However, the public may reject and cast aside this fact, given the Chattanooga home win against this very Wofford team on January 5th by 11 points. To the naked eye, the price is that much juicier considering how low this number is. However, the juice is almost always never worth the squeeze. The Terriers are a frightening team to combat at home and they have taken down the top teams of this league in Wofford, already this season. The Terriers are inclined to add Chattanooga to their list. Given the fact, Wofford are marksmen from behind the three-point line and the free-throw line, the Mocs may have a great deal of trouble putting this team away on a neutral court. When you factor in a classic case of home court advantage coupled with the fact Chattanooga is a 50/50 team away from home, this team is certainly prone for an upset.

The Seminoles are playing so well right now it's difficult to see them falter in this spot today. That said, Florida State barely got by Notre Dame in their earlier match-up and they're just 2-3 straight up and against the spread on the road in conference games this campaign. Notre Dame has dropped two ACC games at home and both losses came in their last three games as a host, but both of thoe losses came against opponents that play superrior defense and thaty is not FSU's strength.