Buffalo is an unimpressive 4-3 as a host versus MAC opponents but they've really come on winning four of their last five with the lone loss coming against a streaking Kent State team. The Bulls appear to be a different team over their last 11 games winning 8 of the matches and losing two of their games by a combined two points. Akron was on a hot streak as well and while they have dropped two straight they were by a combined three points. The difference in this game I believe will be Buffalo's defense that has excelled at home allowing 67 points on 37.6 FG shooting. The Bulls lost by one on the road against the Zips and will get their payback tonight.

Niagara has been a disaster in February losing four of their six matches, but it must be pointed out that five of those six games were on the road. They travelled to met St. Peter's earlier in late January and came away with a two point win as an 8-point dog. I do think that the Peacocks can avenge that loss tonight at the Gallagher Center, but the six point handicap is a reach.

Yale has proved that they can't win against the top clubs in the Ivy League this season losing both games home and away to conference leading Princeton and at home to Harvard. They are 4-1 on the road this season, but only one game was against a top level opponent and as mentioned they fell by 8 points to the Princeton Tigers. The bulldogs also com into this game on a three game tailspin. Harvard vis 4-1 at home versus the Ivy and the same number against the spread with their only blemish ATS being a 6 point win over Columbus as an 8-point favorite.

At first glance this looks like two bottom feeding teams battling it out and while their records do suggest that their play doesn't. Brown is 2-3 on the road beating 7-18 Cornell and 11-12 Penn and on the other side of the decision they lost by 5 to Columbus, by 10 to Yale and 29 to Princeton. Dartmouth won their earlier match on the road against Brown 77-74 and should be able to repeat that feat tonight. The Big Green have played reasonably well at home in recent games, splitting their last four going 3-1 ATS. One of the losses came against the Ivy League leader Princeton by 5 in a game that they had the laed in deep into the second half.

Arizona hasn't been a good bet in recent games dropping four of the last five and six of the last eight games against the spread. USC was on a roll winning five straight and four versus the line before getting blown out in two straight. The Trojans have won four of seven Pac-12 games, but three of the wins came against conference bottom feeders Washington, Washington State and Oregon State. So picking a side here is more like a coin flip. The total line though is a different story. The Wildcats play exceptional defense at home allowing 61.6 points per game and in conference play as the host Arizona has held their last four opponents to 63 points per game. USC before getting stung by UCLA had been playing acceptable defense on the road holding their previous three teams to an average of 73 points per game. Also, keep in mind that UCLA is looming on deck for Arizona, so they may take their foot off the gas.

Neither one of these teams is playing their best basketball. Wisconsin has lost two of their last three games and has been killing their backers' bankrolls going 1-4 ATS in their last four. Ohio State has been on the losing side in three straight but two of those games came on the road and their latest at home wasn't all that bad falling by one point to Nebraska. The Badgers shot an amazing 54.5% from behind the arc going 12 of 22! A repeat of anything near that gets them the cover, but the metrics point out that the probability of that happening is very slim.

History has illustrated that Murray State has been the overvalued team in this series. As mentioned in our analysis, in the previous eight meetings the Redhawks are 6-2 ATS. Furthermore, in five of these situations, they were the underdog. Murray State has spotted some inflated numbers to the Redhawks but this could be by virtue of the fact not many have ever heard of Southeast Missouri State. Despite a lack of faith in the Redhawks, Southeast Missouri State has orchestrated two outright upsets as an underdog against Murray State. First, as a 10-point road underdog in 2013 and they did so yet again this season in January as we had already mentioned. Given the trending tendency of this team to be an undervalued and very potent underdog combined with a clear cut case of home court advantage working in their favor, the Redhawks once again offer immense upside and value. When it is factored in that the Redhawks are more efficient in shot selection, play better defense and own a deeper bench, all the variables indicate that they are ready to pull off yet another upset. Additionally, we will lay the Over and take the Under contrary to popular perception as the Redhawks’ defense can likely dictate the pace and tempo of this contest as they did earlier this season in the previous meeting.

The Spartans play superior defense at home allowing 65 points per game so I can't see the Cornuskers having more success than they did at home against this defense. Nebraska scored just 61 points and a match of anything near that would give us a big shot at keeping this game in the 130 range. Michigan State has averaged just 70.36 points per game in Big Ten matches and a repeat of that gets us the money.

The loss of F Yante Maten for Georgia is big. In thier last meeting against Alabama the Bulldogs' foward was responsible for a third of the team's scoring putting up 20 points in their 80-60 blowout loss. Alabama shot some crazy numbers in that game that they won't b e able to match going this go around shooting 51.1 from the field and 60% from 3 point land. The Tide are an overlay here. Georgia with MAten playing just two minutes hung with Kentucky falling by five points and can keep this close tonight.

I'm going ot take a shot on Cal here. The Golden Bears are 6-1 at home versus the Pac-12 losing only to Arizona by five in their conference opener. The Ducks are just 4-2 on the road in Pac-12 games losing two of their last three. The four points gives us a small cushion incase they can't get the outright win.

UNC is 14-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by an average score of 88.2 to 64.9. Half of those victories came against ACC teams where they were a solid 5-2 versus the betting line. Louisville does have a positive conference road record going 4-3 straight up and 4-2-1 ATS in seven contests. The key angle here is that the Cardinals when facing top level teams from the ACC they are 0-3 with a 2-0-1 point spread record.

Look the Aggies lost an earlier match at home against the Razorbacks by 2 and with their track record on the road it would make this game a reach for them to get the W. Can they cover? Texas A&M is 2-5 in their conference road games but they did get the money in three of those matches, however all five of their road losses were by five or more points all in regulation time. Arkansas is just 4-3 in SEC home games, but they are on a 3-1 run at home and 3-0 overall and they're where my money is going to land today.

The Terps have been a bettors' dream going 10-3-1 ATS in Big Ten Games but have tailed off in recent games going 2-2-1 versus the betting line and in my opinion haven't had a top level performance since the last time these two met. On the other side of the court the Gophers have taken off since the loss stringing together five straight victories. Minnesota is only 8-6 in conference games, but keep in mind that three of those defeats were by two or fewer points. I'll jump on a live dog and take the points.

Colorado State has been a bankroll padding 15-6 against the spread this season and while they are 9-4 in the conference they are on 7-1 run SU and ATS run. I believe their loss at home to the Lobos was not a true reflection of their talent as they allowed the visitors to shoot 55.6% from the field and 66.7% from behind the arc. Those numbers don't fall anywhere near the averages of the New Mexico offense or Colorado State's defense. The Lobos are 10-3 at home this season, but are a less than imposing 4-3 as a host in Mountain West games.

The Rebels haven't played all that poorly in their last six games winning four of the games and putting up 80 or more points in five of the six matches. One of the four victories was a lambasting of tonight's opponent Mississippi State by 27 points. All that doesn't put to a win though. The Bulldogs are not a false favorite here. They come into this game on a four game losing streak and have lost three straight versus Ole Miss. However, they played the Gators tough in their latest at home and didn't embarrass themselves hosting Kentucky and did get three victories in their last five to go with aforementioned losses covering the number in all five games.

Illinois knocked off Northwestern on their home court by 7 and now play the rubber match at home at the State Farm Center, but I'm going to side with the visitor. The last two matches for the Wildcats aren't impressive losing at home to Maryland by 10 followed by a small 4-point win over lowly Rutgers. The good news is that top guard Scottie Lindsey returned in the Rutgers match after missing four games and with the rust off should be able to return to form in his second back. Illinois has been an in an outer winning two of their last three winning over today's opponent and Iowa both on the road, but losing by 13 to Penn State at home. They've lost seven of their last ten and are a poor 3-4 as a host in the Big Ten.

Clemson has had a tough schedule as of late, battling many of the better ACC teams and if they came up with a few wins I'd probably consider them here. They did have a few close losses falling to Syracuse by one and Duke by two, but ending up with a 1-4 mark in their last five matches. They head to Virginia Tech against a Hokies team that is playing good ball right now putting a scare into Louisville on the road and knocking off a hot Pitt team. They're 5-1 at home in conference games with the lone loss to Notre Dame and while they're just 3-3 against the spread in those games they are a four game ATS streak and I believe they're still undervalued in this spot.

The Cyclones are a very good team with only a two point road loss holding them back from being on a five game winning streak. Since the loss they have put together three consecutive wins straight up and against the betting line. Texas Tech has also been playing well but hasn't been getting the W's with two one point losses plus an overtime loss in their last five games. This is too tough of a call on the spread, so I'm going to make a play on the total. Both teams have been scoring well. Iowa State has scored 80 or more points in three straight games and Texas Tech's offense has been playing at an elite level at home averaging 80.2 points per game overall on a ridiculous 51.4 FG%. I have this total in the low 150's giving us lots of wiggle room on the current line.

Georgia State has dropped three in a row, however they are on a 4-1 streak at home with the only loss being in their latest by one point to Sun Belt leading Texas Arlington and can extend the margin in this game. The Panthers destroyed ULM in their last home victory 14 and while they did beat ULL by only three they took the pedal off of the metal in the second half after hitting the break with a 15 point lead. The losing streak should guarantee that they don't that tonight.

Both teams rely on defense with Virginia possessing the No. 1 scoring defense not only in the ACC, but also in the nation! Miami isn't no slouch with the 32nd ranked defense allowing 64.3 points. The number is low, but it's the right play here.