Both teams can put points on the board with Xavier averaging 86.9 per game and Marquette averaging 83 points. The Musketeers play superior defense, but have allowed good shooting teams to hit in the 70’s and ASU did get to them for 102 points. The Golden Eagles have allowed 50% of their opponents to score 80 or greater points and if both teams surpass that number today we will get the money.

The week off could hurt Illinois, but I think the fact that they’re coming off a poor performance in their latest against New Mexico State that they’ll come into this game fully focused. They have played well in spots this season and a return to that form could get them not only the cover but possibly the outright win.

Situational betting is a mantra we champion. Any time we see a team with a win-loss record like Cal State’s spotting points to anyone we have to take a further look. Much of the public has gotten aboard the Matadors and caused them to go from a dog to a favorite. This opens the door to find value on the initial favorite of Idaho State. We’d be hard pressed to find ourselves spotting points with a team that has just one win this year against a Non-NCAA Division I outfit. Very simply, we are getting the better team at the better price and that in itself dictates the play.

Nebraska-Omaha has a penchant for playing up when they are on their own court. This is a common denominator of many teams in college basketball especially. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, they have only been home on three other occasions this year but they have been successful in gaining the W each team they curated hosting duties. Montana State though they have the better record have struggled mightily when they were delved into unwelcoming environments. This in itself makes Nebraska-Omaha a play be that they are likely in line to pull off an upset.

However, there is more to it than the matter of home court advantage. Nebraska-Omaha as a whole has played a much tougher schedule as it is ranked 38th nationally according to KenPom. In doing so, the Mavs have had some misfortunes as their Luck quotient sits at 224th. On the contrary, Montana State sits 25th overall in the Luck department whilst playing the 166th ranked schedule in terms of strength. Long story short, NEOM has played a tougher schedule and had harder luck. A bit of home cooking will do the soul well here and also makes Montana State a false favorite in this market, as well.

The Mean Green didn’t get embarrassed by a good Oklahoma team on the road falling by 10 and play well enough on the boards to keep this close. Georgetown’s only loss came in OT, but they’ve played an easy schedule and have been burning their backers money all season long with a 1-5 against the spread mark in their lined games.

Sure, both teams play solid defense, but Clemson’s offense has really stood out this season. Clemson has faced some strong defensive clubs like Florida and Ohio State and put up 71 on the Gators on a neutral court and 79 against the Buckeyes on the road. At home they haven’t faced the toughest schedule, but they did average 84 points per game in five games reaching 81 or greater points in all five games. The Gamecocks can be shut down as Temple and Illinois State did this season, but for the most part this team has shot well and has clearing over 70 points in all but those two games. There is a huge trend to the UNDER in this game, but I think the value is on the other side of the line.

The ingredients make Cal Poly SLO a prime play in this situation. First, Princeton stole America’s heart last yet when it ran the table in the Ivy League and took it to Notre Dame in the First Round of the Men’s Basketball Tournament. Though it was 2016, this left a positive impression on the betting public and compels action on the Tigers here and now. Secondly, Cal Poly enters off a loss whilst Princeton enters off a dominant win against a notable mid-major opponent. This drives Princeton’s stock even further.

However, Cal Poly SLO gets this one at home and home court is a huge component of the college hoops game. Thus, a home dog is always worth a second look from an analytical perspective. From further scrutiny, the Mustangs own the edge against the Tigers in points per game (67.3 PPG for CP compared to 65.4 PPG for Princeton), free throw percentage (78.2 % for CP versus 70.2% for Princeton), and turnovers. CP SLO is also the more physical team overall on the boards and owns a deeper bench as well. When you factor all of this into the equation, the Mustangs are primed not only to cover but also pull an upset.

Kansas has dropped two in a row, so I expect them to come out with a top performance tonight. Defense has been the issue in the two games allowing 95 to Arizona State and 74 to Washington and that will surely be their focus when they take the court against the Cornhuskers. Nebraska’s offense has been limited by on paper inferior opponents and I believe the two points combined should keep this game under the posted line.

There are many reasons to like the Crusaders here with the points. First, Valpo features the deeper bench and is the more physical team on the boards. Valparaiso averages 41.9 offensive rebounds per game which places them 14th in the country. Northwestern ranks among the worst in the nation with a 312th ranked 32.4 offensive boards per game. This means that Valpo can get several more second chances which is essential in road games against perceived stronger opponents. Furthermore, Valparaiso makes smarter shots. The Crusaders average 46.4% from the field whilst the Cats hit 44.3% of their attempts per game. When you couple this with Valpo owning a robust ninth-ranked opponent field goal percentage (36.5%) and seventh-ranked opponent three-point field goal percentage (26.4%), the Crusaders have the full capability to bully Northwestern on its own court.

However, when you look at this contest on paper we would be hard pressed to imagine a Power Five constituent being an underdog on its own court against a mid-major club. Even one as good as Valparaiso. The fact remains we have a tremendous opportunity to step in on what is likely an exaggerated point spread by virtue of the ingredients surrounding the match-up. However, Valparaiso can upset the sauce.

Nova can win at will most nights, but the Owls are a formidable opponent and should be able to keep this close. Temple has lost just two matches this season and both were by four points. The visitor has owned them in this series the last four meeting, but I believe that the Owls can stay close all game and get the point spread cover.

The Wolverines have played two true road games this season and were beaten by 9 by Ohio State and 15 by UNC. Offense has been a problem averaging 66.5 points per game in the two contests. They’ll now take on a Texas team that has held the opposition to just 58.5 points per game at home this season. The Wolverines’ defense has been solid for the most part and with the Longhorns leading scorer being out G Andrew Jones (15.3 PPG) out with a wrist injury, they should be able to limit the scoring.

After starting the season 1-3 the Golden Panthers have won three of their last four going 2-0-1 in the three lined games. Their defense has been the key to the turnaround holding the opposition to 67 or fewer points in the three victories. South Florida comes into this game on a mini three game losing streak and the Bulls defense which has been a strength for the team has faltered recently allowing 84 in their latest to Appalachian State and 70 in regulation to Elon.

The Vikings have been a broken slot machine against the spread this year and whilst they continue to be undervalued the general public we will go ahead and step in and snag the value. The Vikings have all the makings of an outfit that cannot only make a deep run in the Big Sky but perhaps take the conference hardware and punch its ticket to March Madness. The Vikings are a physical bunch on the boards. In fact, Portland State averages 34.9 rebounds per game in comparison to Santa Clara who average just 26.5 boards per game. This is a substantial difference and will have impactful influences in the outcome of this contest. One other thing makes Portland State a potent choice in this market: tempo. The Vikings own the 4th ranked fastest offense in all of America. Santa Clara likes to play a sluggishly-slow style of basketball as they sit at 330th, among the slowest in the land. The Vikings can overwhelm the Broncos here and are also worth a look as a Money Line play here.

The Gators have been on a slide losing three consecutive games which including two games that they were favored. Their offense has taken a big step-down scoring 66 against FSU and 59 about Loyola-Chicago. Florida will now face a team that has been playing great defense holding their opponents to 61.2 points per game on 36.2% shooting. The Bearcats did get lit up for 89 points by the Musketeers who had a big day from behind the arc hitting 10 of 21. The Gators can also hit the three, but they’ve been atrocious in their last two shooting 8/44 from three-point land. They could rebound here, but I’ll take my chances on both teams playing sound defense and this game coming in below the total.

Short and simple analysis. Oklahoma has proven that they can score on anyone averaging 94.4 points per game. USC hasn’t shown that they can get shut down offensively by a superior defense, but that’s not what they will face tonight. I have both squads scoring in the 80’s and over 170 combined is where I feel this will land.

We will be hard pressed to spot points in a rivalry game as potent as this one. The Hawkeyes enter in perfect position to submarine the Cyclones on their own court. The Hawkeyes are off the radar and a consensus fade in light of their recent troubles. Contrarily, the Cyclones’ stellar play has made them a captivating take for any bettor. As a result, we have a quintessential buy-low and sell-high situation materializing in front of us. With the apparent opposite directions both teams seem to be heading in, Iowa remains the more physical team on the boards averaging over three more rebounds per game than their counterparts (Iowa 36.1 RPG vs. Iowa State 32.9 RPG). In games as hard fought as this one, this is essential as it can set the tone for the entire affair. Therefore, we will take the points here.

The Badgers have played a tough schedule so far this season, but it’s difficult to have a lot of confidence in a team that has dropped five of their last seven games. The Owls have ha a light schedule with just six games under their belts, but have shown flashes winning four of those games. In the two losses the defense let them down, however in comes the Wisconsin offense that has had all kinds of problems putting up points this campaign. Temple won three of their four games by double digits and the other by six, so extending the margin shouldn’t be an issue.

Admittedly, Nova hasn’t played the toughest schedule this season, but they’ve yet to lose with the smallest margin of victory coming against the Vols (six points). In that game, Villanova was playing back-to-back and ran into a team that couldn’t miss in the first half scoring 46 points to race out to a 12-point half time lead. That half aside they have not allowed an opponent to score more that 30 points in the first half. Tonight’s opponent ZAGA has just the one loss on the season and that was against the Gators in overtime. Like Villanova, Gonzaga has been playing excellent defense holding the opposition in all lined games to fewer than their seasonal average in regulation. In their last four games with a line they’ve held their opponent to 12.3 or greater points below their average. Both these teams can shoot, so it could go the other way, but I’ll take my chances of the defenses playing to form tonight.

This is too tough of a match-up to call a side on, but I believe the total has some value. Florida State has gone over the total in four of their five lined games, but hadn’t played much until meeting Rutgers. The Seminoles managed just 78 points, but the game did go OVER, but the Seminoles were held to just 78 points. All the Gators five lined games have gone over the total and the last three opponents have shot 48.2% from the field on 94 of 195 shooting. I have this game in the high 160’s.

Their records are similar with the Terrapins 6-3 and the Illini 6-2, but there's a large desparity in competition. Sure Illinois is 6-0 at home, but three of their games were against such over-matched teams that no line was offered. When facing decent opposition there scoring fell well off and that's what i think will happen tonight. Maryland has held opponents to 63.6 points per game on 38.5% shooting and anything near that tonight should result in an easy victory.