When many takers look at this market, they will likely do a double take. After all, Duquesne has a far better record and looks to be a contender for the Atlantic 10 and a coveted March Madness bid. However, Saint Louis’ defense is the real deal. According to KenPom, the Billikens own the 94th ranked defense in America. SLU achieved this against the 37th toughest schedule in terms of opponent offensive production. Overall, the Billikens have played a much tougher scheduler compared to the Dukes. SLU’s strength of schedule sits at 119th overall whilst Duquesne’s sits among the lowest at 350th nationally. The result of facing contrasting differences in quality of opposition will manifest on the court. It also helps that Saint Louis has won seven of their eight victories at home this season, so you can be assured they will have extra mojo. There is no reason why they shouldn’t comfortably earn yet another win here.

The Boilermakers are perfect in Big Ten play going 6-0, however they’re just 3-3 against the spread which includes an uninspiring 1-2 mark at home versus the conference. The Badgers already have nine losses on their resume and three of their last six defeats have been by double digits ruling out a point spread recommendation for me. The total offers the most value here. Wisconsin has averaged 62.4 points in five conference games surpassing 70 points in just one contest (71 points vs. Indiana) and the average is likely to decrease against Purdue’s top-level defense. On the other end of the court the Badgers have done a good job holding the opposition to 64.9 points per game overall and to 66.8 in Big 10 games and eight of their last ten opponents to 70 or fewer points. 

Strength of schedule is often a great litmus test to gauge the quality of both participants. For Buffalo, the Bulls have played a far tougher schedule when compared to Northern Illinois. In particular, non-conference competition is the true separator. The Bulls’ Non-Conference Strength of Schedule according to KenPom sits at 51st in America whilst NIU stands at 299th. Despite this, Buffalo has the better win and loss record and an overall better body of work.

In addition to the clear-cut differences in resume, the Bulls are also a force to be reckoned with at home. Northern Illinois has struggled mightily out of DeKalb. When you combine this narrative with the facts that Buffalo is the more physical team on the boards combined with a fast tempo (22nd in the US, according to KenPom), this game may get out of hand early. Swallow the points.

The Jayhawks have proven to be over-rated this season with three losses by double digits in their last ten games and they’re been burning their backers’ money going only 4-6 against the spread through that stretch. That said, they catch the Mountaineers in a good spot coming off a loss after stringing together 15 straight wins. At the college level that usually results in a let down in their next game after losing the feeling of invincibility. The struggles on offense in their last two – shooting just 35% adds to the value. Taking the points is the right way to go in this game.

Historically over their last ten meetings betting the OVER has been very profitable with an 8-1-1 mark. The UTES have given up 94, 80 and 83 points in their last three, but one of the games was against offensively minded Arizona State and the last two they were short two very good shot blockers in forwards Donnie Tillman and Jayce Johnson. Both have a shot to play tonight with 7 footer Johnson the most likely. Utah likes to slow the tempo down and if they can do that against the Trojans which I expect them to do USC doesn’t have the shot makers to light up the visitor.

There has been avid speculation as to whether or not this Ragin’ Cajuns team can win the Sun Belt and punch a ticket to March Madness. Given their play overall this season, there is no reason to doubt that they cannot do so. However, rivalry games produce the unexpected. There are fewer rivalries in the college athletic universe that are more potent than the Battle of the Bayou. This game is not just a football or basketball rivalry but a feud between two institutions. This makes spotting the points in this spot a dubious proposition.

Undoubtedly, the flawless home record of Louisiana-Lafayette can cause a lot of revelry and sell the stock of Louisiana-Monroe who has yet to win a game on the road, this season. However, the question is not whether the Ragin’ Cajuns are the better basketball team or even if they will win this contest. The inquiry is strictly focused on the number presented in this offering. Louisiana-Lafayette has covered successfully in each of their four wins leading up to this affair which means you will have to pay a premium to back them here while their stock is high. When you toss in the aforementioned narrative of a superior team with clear-cut home court advantage, the price is only accelerated higher. Take the points.

The Tar Heels have picked up their defensive game holding all but the Seminoles to fewer than 70 points in their last four. UNC can put up the points scoring a 30th ranked 83.4 points per game, but on Saturday they’ll be facing the 24th ranked scoring defense of ND a team that has held every conference foe to 60 or fewer PPG in conference play. Scoring points has been a problem for the Irish in recent games playing without star forward Bonzie Colson and guard Matt Farrell who account for a combined average of 37.3 PPG. Colson remains out and Farrell is doubtful.

The Golden Eagles have scored 79 or greater points in eight of their last nine games and exceeding their opponents seasonal average scoring defense number in all nine games. The Bulldogs have allowed only 68.3 points per game at home this season, but many of the games were versus inferior opponents. In their last four games overall when stepping up the competition they have allowed 85 points or greater in all four. Offense hasn’t been a problem at home scoring 88 points per game including 101 against Villanova!

In the earlier match-up both teams took awhile to hit their stride scoring a combined 57 points in the first half. The polar opposite happened in the second half when 83 points were scored. At home NC State has averaged 91.5 points on 50.6% shooting and admittedly that is skewed by the quality of opponents. They did however put up 96 on Duke and we probably only need them in the low 70’s to get over the number tonight. Clemson doesn’t always light it up averaging 77.9 points per game this season, but in their defense, they have played some solid defenses and NC State’s D is not in that category.

The Wolverines normally try to control the pace of the game, limiting the offensive opportunities of their opponent. I don’t believe that approach will work tonight in Ann Arbor. The Boilermakers are ranked in the top 20 in scoring offense, field-goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Michigan will need to rely on their recent sharp shooting to stay in this game (52.5 FG% L5) to keep them a fighting chance in this game.

Oklahoma in my opinion is undervalued in this spot. They’re 2-0 against the Big 12 this season which included a nice win on the road over a good TCU team – the Horned Frogs only loss this season. West Virginia certainly isn’t a pushover and has played exceptionally well on defense. However, the Sooners are very proficient on offense ranking No. 1 in the nation in scoring and note that in their two matches against conference foes they have put up season high points against their opponent.  OU may not get the outright win, but they should be in this throughout and stay within the number. 

There are several moving parts to this spot that make the Vikings a value play. First, as we have championed previously home court advantage is a huge angle to work with in college hoops. When we look at a team like Cleveland State, this narrative is on full display. The Vikings are winless on the road this year. The Panthers are 3-4 SU when they are not playing ball in Milwaukee. A situation like this one where the host is taking back points offers tremendous value in itself. The small line suggests that the hosts are in position to not only cover but win outright.

Secondly, Cleveland State has one of the worst luck quotients in America according to KenPom. The Vikings sit 321st in that department which means they have been on the losing end of close games at an abnormal rate. The Vikings are due for a correction to win some of these close games and given the variables this looks to be a premium spot to do so.

Look Joe Public doesn’t lose every game and while more often than not I am anti-public on sides, until Rutgers can prove they can compete against Big Ten teams they are fade worthy. The Scarlett Knights have dropped all three games this season against conference opponents with the smallest losing margin being by 10 points.

Jacksonville State is the more recognizable name in this contest because they won the conference hardware last year and earned a #15 seed in the Men’s Basketball Tournament whilst doing so. The Gamecocks also gave Kentucky a run for its money in the first round proving they were no easy out. Many takers are reminiscing upon the impression left by J-State in 2016 and are quick to pull the trigger here as they are against a basketball team that many have never heard of. However, analytics would prove the equity is in fact on the Tigers.

According to KenPom, the Tigers have played a far tougher schedule when it comes to non-conference opposition in contrast to the visitors. Tennessee State’s Non-Conference Strength of Schedule sits at 57th nationally whilst the Gamecocks have played the 343rd ranked docket in that respective department. Given the fact J-State has played nine games at home this season in comparison to Tennessee State who has played just five, this could explain the market’s reluctance to buy into the verity of the contrasting win-loss records. When the narrative of home court advantage is tossed into the mix, the Tigers are in a position here to create some discord in the early stages of conference play. The Tigers may win this one outright but when points are added, Tennessee State is a true value proposition.

There is no disputing the fact that both teams can score, but the Seminoles have played well on both sides of the ball. Their stout defense has allowed 67.5 points per game holding the opposition to an impressive 37.9 shooting. Florida State will have to play better on the boards than they did against Duke and I think they will with a return home to the Donald L. Tucker Center.

You must give the Red Raiders credit for their 12-1 record, but they haven’t compiled the best resume beating many mid-range teams. They did destroy a decent Northwestern team, but failed against Seton Hall and needed overtime against Nevada to come away with a win. The Jayhawks lost back to back games against Pac-12 teams in early December and didn’t extend the lead in wins against Texas and Kentucky. Taking the points seem like the wise way tro play this game.

I’m going to go with the public opinion on this game. Both teams have had no problem scoring this season with the WVU putting up an average of 84.8 points and KSU 77.8 points per game. The Mounaineers have been held to fewer than 70 points just twice since their opener and the Wildcats just twice this season.

I’m going to go with the public opinion on this game. Both teams have had no problem scoring this season with the WVU putting up an average of 84.8 points and KSU 77.8 points per game. The Mounaineers have been held to fewer than 70 points just twice since their opener and the Wildcats just twice this season.

Take the OVER 148.5 (CK)

When you back Dayton in a conference match you can expect to pay a premium as they are one of the most recognized names in the Atlantic-10. Furthermore, Dayton is regarded as a perennial contender for March Madness when it concerns mid-major programs. After all, the Flyers have made four consecutive appearances in the Men’s Basketball Tournament and are back-to-back regular season champions of the Atlantic 10. Duquesne has made only five Men’s Basketball Tournament appearances in program history and has not been to the big dance in 40 years. Though Duquesne has the better record and hosting the match, all of the aforementioned historical anecdotes make Dayton a popular public choice by virtue of a recency bias alone.

The fact remains though that home court advantage is a big part of the college hoops game. Dayton is winless in its two trips on the road this year whilst the Dukes have won their last six at home. When you couple this with the fact Duquesne is the more physical team on the boards, commits less turnovers, and has a deeper bench compared to Dayton, the scenario has all the makings for Duquesne to not only cover here but orchestrate an outright upset.

A recency bias is the likely culprit for Santa Clara receiving so much love in this spot. The fact that Pepperdine has lost all its games on the road this season combined with the fact that Santa Clara has won all of theirs at home, enhances this sentiment. Chances are the market is adept to these narratives and exploiting them with an inflated point spread. There is no other reason why a team on a four-game losing streak that sports an eyesore win-loss record would spotting such lumber.

For Pepperdine in particular, their defense has been abysmal. According to KenPom, the Waves own the 333rd ranked Adjusted Defense rating. The Waves give up 80 points per game which places them 315th nationally in that category. However, Santa Clara’s offense is not one to marvel at as they average just 72.3 points per game (232nd Nationally). The Broncos are also one of the worst in creating second chances as they are ranked 345th nationally in offensive rebounding with just 29.8 rebounds per game. This was attained against a 325th ranked Non-Conference Strength of Schedule.

The bottom line is this, Pepperdine will likely catch a break here against a weak offense that does not have the ability to create a lot of second chances to attack their defense. As a result, the Waves will not have to sweat it out as they did against the likes of Weber State, Belmont, Texas A&M, or Oklahoma State all of whom are far more prolific than Santa Clara in scoring and chance creation. We have two teams comparable in quality as reflected by wins and losses. But Pepperdine has played a tougher schedule and is nevertheless being granted a generous cushion in this spot. We’ll take full advantage.

Seton Hall has been underwhelming in recent games going 2-1 and failing to get the point spread win in all three games. They are however 8-0 at home and meet a Creighton team that is just 2-2 away from home this season. The Bluejays lost both games straight up and against the spread when they were in the underdog role as they are tonight. The Pirates will miss Ismael Sanogo, but they have enough depth to get it done and send their backers to the windows tonight.