Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Pick & Analysis
Date:
June 11, 7:10 pm
Location:
Fenway Park
TV:
MLBTV
Betting Odds
Moneyline:
Tor +108/Bos -111
Total:
10ov -110
<p>AL East rivals commence a four-game weekend series when the Blue Jays battle the Red Sox Friday night in Boston. Former Angel Garrett Richards gets the call here for the home team against former Dodger Ross Stripling for the visitors. How are we playing this game with our <a href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/free-mlb-picks" title="Free MLB Predictions">free MLB betting pick</a>? </p>
<h2>MLB Betting Odds </h2>
<p>Friday's <a href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/odds" title="Shop for the best MLB lines">baseball betting lines</a> opened Boston and Richards at around -130 over Toronto and Stripling, with an over/under of 10 runs. Early betting action then dropped the Sox to -120.</p>
<h2>Blue Jays-Red Sox MLB Betting Preview</h2>
<p>Toronto just dropped two of three games to the White Sox in Chicago, losing Thursday's series rubber match 5-2. Just before that, the Blue Jays dropped two of three games at their temporary home in Buffalo to Houston. So Toronto is 2-4 over its last six games.
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<p>At 31-29 overall, the Blue Jays sit in fourth place in the AL East, 6.5 games behind first-place Tampa Bay. Toronto is also playing slightly behind schedule against its season wins over/under of 86.5.</p>
<p>Boston, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to the Astros, avoiding the sweep with a 12-8 victory Thursday. The Sox actually trailed that game 8-7, then scored five runs in a crazy sixth inning and held on from there.</p>
<p>Earlier this week, Boston took a game from Miami, and last weekend it swept three games from the Yankees in New York. So the Sox are 6-2 over their last eight games.</p>
<p>At 38-25 overall, Boston sits in second place in the AL East, one game back of the division-leading Rays. The Red Sox are also playing way ahead of schedule against their wins O/U for this season of 80.5.</p>
<p>Boston leads the season series with Toronto three games to two.</p>
<h2>Friday's Pitching Match-Up</h2>
<p>This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on May 19 of this season, a 7-3 Boston victory.
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<p><a href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/40209" title="Garrett Richards Pitching Logs">Richards</a>, by our strict standards, is 4/12 on quality starts this season. And while he's three for his last five on QS, he's been doing a bit of a high-wire act. Last Sunday against the Yankees, he gave up three runs on eight hits and two walks through five innings of a 6-5 Red Sox win. And over his last five outings, he's allowed ten runs and 30 hits, along with 17 walks, through 29 1/3 innings.</p>
<p>Boston is 6-6 with Richards this season, which is about what they should be.</p>
<p>Over two starts already this season against Toronto, Richards allowed six runs on 11 hits and ten walks (!) through 11 1/3 innings. The Sox split those two games.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/79413" title="Ross Stripling Pitching Logs">Stripling is 0/8 on quality starts this year</a>, but some of that has to do with a short leash. Three times this season, he's pitched within three outs of a QS, only to get pulled. And he's been very good and efficient as of late. Last Saturday, he held Houston to one run and seven hits through five frames of a 6-2 Blue Jays win. And over his last three outings, he's allowed just two runs and 11 hits through 17 innings, getting 51 outs on just 217 pitches.</p>
<p>On the season, Toronto is 4-4 with Stripling, and that also sounds about right.</p>
<p>Over his last two starts against Boston, one last year and the one three weeks ago, Stripling got pegged for nine runs and three home runs through eight total innings. The Jays lost both those games. </p>
<h2>Splits With the Sticks</h2>
<p>Toronto is batting .258 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .322 team OBP and a .440 team slugging percentage.</p>
<p>Boston is slashing .254/.317/.444 against RH pitching this season.</p>
<p>We rank both these lineups among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split.</p>
<p><section></p>
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/1358021">TOR/BOS 6/11/21 Matchup Stats</a></span>
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<h2>The Bullpens</h2>
<p>The Blue Jays bullpen owns a 3.74 ERA this season, along with a 1.29 WHIP and a 2.21 K/BB ratio.</p>
<p>The Red Sox pen owns a 3.53 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 2.53 K/BB ratio.</p>
<h2>MLB Betting Trends</h2>
<ul>
<li>The Blue Jays are 18-16 in true road games this season.</li>
<li>The Red Sox are 18-15 at home this season.</li>
<li>The Blue Jays are 26-20 against right-handed starters this season.</li>
<li>The Red Sox are 26-18 against RH starters this season.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Totals Report </h2>
<p>Unders are 31-27 in Blue Jays games this season.</p>
<p>Unders are 33-29 in Red Sox games this season.</p>
<p>Totals are split 16-16 in games played at Fenway Park this season.</p>
We're not sure who's going to win this game, and we don't care because our play is on the total. When these two starting pitchers faced off last month, the game played over a total of 9.5 as Richards and Stripling combined to allow eight runs. Also, we rank both these lineups among the best in the Business against right-handed pitching. Also, Toronto has scored at least five runs five times over its last nine games, while Boston has scored at least five runs six times over its last eight games. So we're playing the over 9.5 runs here for our free MLB pick for Friday.
Free Pick:
Take the OVER 10
