Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Game 7 Preview & Pick
ALCS Game 7 Overview
The American League championship series comes down to one game Monday night in Houston. Texas won the first two games of this ALCS in Houston; the Astros then won the next three games in Arlington; and the Rangers then won Game 6 Sunday back at Minute Maid Park. So the visiting team is 6-0 in this series.
This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 3 of this series, an 8-5 Houston win.
Christian Javier hits the hill for Houston here against hired gun Max Scherzer for Texas.
Javier is making his third start of this postseason. First, he held Minnesota scoreless on one hit through five innings of a 9-1 Astros victory. Then last Wednesday, he held Texas to two runs and three hits through 5 2/3 innings and picked up the win. Houston played 21-10 with Javier during the regular season, and they're 2-0 with him this postseason.
Over two starts this season against Texas, Javier allowed 10 ER and 12 hits through 10 innings. Thanks to some good run support, the Astros won both those games.
Scherzer is making his second start of this postseason. Last Wednesday, he got touched for five runs through five innings and took the loss. Before that, Scherzer was out for a month dealing with a sore shoulder. Texas played 6-3 with Scherzer after getting him in that deadline trade with the Mets, but they're 0-1 with him this postseason.
Over three starts this season against the Astros, Scherzer allowed 13 runs and 15 hits through 15 innings. His teams lost two of those three games.
Splits With the Sticks
Texas batted .261 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .334 team OBP and a .456 team slugging percentage.
Houston slashed .254/.328/.423 against right-handed pitching.
The Astros bullpen posted a 3.56 ERA this season, along with a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.70 K/BB ratio.
The Rangers pen put up a 4.77 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 2.76 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
Texas only played 40-41 on the road this season and 62-56 against right-handed starters.
Houston played just 39-42 at home and 62-51 against right-handed starters.
The overs played 81-69 in Rangers games this season.
The overs played 83-74 in Astros games.
The overs played 46-33 at Minute Maid Park this season.
The overs are 12-4 in Rangers-Astros games this season.
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Betting Pick for Game 7
Despite the outcome last Wednesday, we give Scherzer the edge in the pitching match-up. From there, we give Texas the edge in the splits with the sticks, while Houston owns the better bullpen. So, from what we can tell, the wrong team might be favored here. The visiting team is a perfect 6-0 in this ALCS, and the underdog is 5-1. We like the betting value with the Rangers catching the underdog price for this Game 7.