Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline Pick for Game 3
Betting Odds
The Diamondbacks snatched home-field advantage for the rest of this World Series by splitting the first two games in Arlington. Arizona now gets the next three at Chase Field, beginning with Game 3 Monday night.
Diamondbacks rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt gets the call for the most important start of his young career against Max Scherzer, the former Diamondback who’s been this far a few times, for Texas.
World Series Betting Odds
The Game 3 betting market opened up at right around a pick ‘em, with an over/under of nine runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
This World Series began with Texas favored at -185 to win it, with Arizona getting +155. The Rangers are still chalked but now at -130, with the D’Backs, with home-field advantage, getting +110.
World Series Game 3 Betting Preview
Texas came from behind late to win Game 1 of this series last Friday 6-5 in 11 innings but Arizona earned the split in Arlington with a 9-1 Game 2 victory Saturday night.
The Rangers won Game 1 as -150 favorites while the Diamondbacks took Game 2 as +135 dogs. So Arizona’s up $35 so far this World Series, based on those hypothetical $100 bets.
Also, both games in this World Series played over on the totals.
Actually the D’Backs are only two outs away from leading this series 2-0.
Texas finished six games ahead of Arizona in the regular-season standings but the Diamondbacks took the season series from the Rangers three games to one.
Game 3 Pitching Match-Up
Rookie Pfaadt is making his fifth start of this postseason. Last Tuesday in Game 7 of the NLCS at Philadelphia he allowed two runs and four hits through four innings in that 11-4 Arizona victory. And so far this postseason he’s allowed five runs and 15 hits through 16 2/3 innings, with three walks against 22 strikeouts.
The Diamondbacks only played 8-10 with Pfaadt during the regular season but they’re 4-0 with him this postseason.
In his one career start against Texas, back in May of this season, Pfaadt got bombed for seven runs and four home runs through less than five innings, although the D’Backs came back to win that game 12-7.
Scherzer is making his third start of this postseason. Last Monday in Game 7 of that ALCS against Houston he gave up two runs on four hits and two walks through just 2 2/3 innings, although the Rangers won that game 11-4. And in his other start against the Astros he gave up five runs in four innings and took the L.
Scherzer sat out the last three weeks of the regular season with a sore shoulder so one wonders if he’s totally healthy.
Texas is 6-4 with Scherzer since that trade with the Mets back at the deadline.
In his one start this season against Arizona, back in July while still with New York, Scherzer gave up four runs and three homers through six innings, although the Mets won that game anyway 8-5.
Splits With the Sticks
Texas batted .261 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .334 team OBP and a .456 team slugging percentage.
Arizona slashed .250/.323/.414 against RH pitching.
The Bullpens
The Diamondbacks bullpen posted a 4.22 ERA this season, along with a 1.30 WHIP and a 2.47 K/BB ratio. But this unit owns a 3.04 ERA through 56 1/3 innings of work this postseason.
The Rangers pen recorded a 4.77 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.76 K/BB ratio. But this unit is also better this postseason, putting up a 3.90 ERA through 57 2/3 innings.
MLB Betting Trends
Texas only played 40-41 on the road this season and 62-56 against right-handed starters.
Arizona played 43-38 at home but only 56-57 against RH starters.
Totals Report
The overs are 9-4 in Rangers games this postseason.
The overs are 7-6 in Diamondbacks games this postseason.
The unders played 43-31 at Chase Field this season.
The overs are 5-1 in Rangers-D’Backs games this season.
World Series Game 3 Pick - Rangers vs. Diamondbacks
Texas played under .500 on the road during the regular season, but it’s 8-0 on the road this postseason, averaging over six runs per game. Pfaadt’s been good in these playoffs, but the Rangers got to him earlier this season. And if Scherzer’s got anything in the tank, we expect him to show it Monday night. We’ll take Texas to take Game 3.