Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros Pick

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros Pick

Darin Zank
Date: August 27, 8:10 pm
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: SportsNet Southwest

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Astros -180/Rays +160
Total: 7.5

<p>
The Astros own a big lead in their divisional race while the Rays are hanging tough in the AL wild-card race, heading into the opener of this three-game series Tuesday night in H-Town. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?
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<h2>
MLB Betting Odds<br />
</h2>
<p>
Tuesday's MLB betting odds opened Houston at around -170 over Tampa Bay, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then boosted the Astros to -190 and dipped the total to 7.5.
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<h2>
Rays vs. Astros Set-Up<br />
</h2>
<p>
Tampa just split four games in Baltimore over the weekend, winning the first two games but losing the last two, including an 8-3 decision Sunday. The Rays then had Monday off.
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<p>
Just before that Tampa dropped two of three games to Seattle. So the Rays are only 3-4 over their last seven games.
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<p>
At 76-56 overall Tampa trails the first-place Yankees by 9.5 games in the AL East, but it's also tied with Oakland for the No. 2 spot in the American League wild-card standings.
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<p>
Houston, meanwhile, just swept three games at home from the Angels over the weekend, winning Sunday 11-2. The Astros then also had Monday off.
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<p>
Just before that Houston took three of four games from Detroit, so the Astros are 7-1 over their last eight games.
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<p>
At 85-47 overall Houston leads the AL West by nine games over the second-place A's, and it's only a half-game back of the Yankees in the battle for the best record in the American League.
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<p>
This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; back in March, the Rays took three of four games from the Astros at Tropicana Field.
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<h2>
Tuesday's Starting Arms<br />
</h2>
<p>
Verlander, by our strict standards, is 20/27 on quality starts this season and seven for his last eight. Last Wednesday he held the Tigers to two runs on two solo homers through a full nine innings, with 11 strikeouts, although Houston lost that game 2-1 as a -500 favorite on the MLB betting line. And over his last eight starts, he's allowed just 14 runs – 13 earned – and 34 hits through 52 innings, with 86 whiffs against only seven walks.
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<p>
On the season the Astros are 18-9 with Verlander, and while they're 0-3 over his last three starts, that's not his fault.
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<p>
Over his last three starts against Tampa Bay, two last year and one earlier this season, Verlander allowed seven runs and 18 hits through 18 2/3 innings. Houston lost two of those three games.
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<p>
Former Astro Morton is 14/27 on quality starts this year, but only one for his last three. Last Wednesday he gave up three runs and four hits through five innings of a 7-6 Rays win over Seattle. And over his last three starts, he's allowed eight runs – seven earned - and 16 hits through 18 innings, although he's also recorded 23 strikeouts over that span.
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<p>
Tampa is 17-10 with Morton this year, 4-2 over his last six starts.
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<p>
In his most recent start against the Astros, back in March, Morton allowed two runs and three hits through five frames of a 4-2 Rays victory.
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<h2>
Tuesday's Batting Splits<br />
</h2>
<p>
Tampa is batting .251/.327/.431 against right-handed pitching this season.
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<p>
Houston is batting .270/.343/.479 against RH pitching this season, which helps this lineup rank among the top three in the Majors in this split.
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<h2>
The Bullpens<br />
</h2>
<p>
The Rays bullpen owns a 3.69 ERA this season and a 1.22 WHIP while holding foes to a .702 OPS.
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<p>
The Astros pen owns a 3.74 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP while holding foes to a .694 OPS.
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<p>
Numbers like those are why we rank both these units among the top three bullpens in Baseball.
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<h2>
Totals Report<br />
</h2>
<ul>
<li>
Unders are 63-60 in Rays games this season.
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Unders are 70-56 in Astros games this season.
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<li>
Unders are 34-26 in games played at Minute Maid Park this season.
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<li>
Unders are 4-0 in Rays-Astros games this season.
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<li>
Unders are a combined 32-20 with Verlander and Morton this season.
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</ul>
<p><section></p>
<ul>
<li>
<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href=" https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/1083063">Rays at Astros MLB Match-up Stats</a> </span>
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</ul>
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Rays at Astros Prediction 08/27/2019

Houston gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up and owns an edge with the sticks, but it's not enough to warrant a price as high as the one posted on this game. Tampa is a scrappy outfit, and this game looks like an excellent candidate to end up 3-2, one way or the other. We see nice baseball betting value here with the Rays at the underdog price.

Free Pick: Take the Rays +160
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