San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick - Odds - Expert Preview

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick - Odds - Expert Preview

Deborah
Date: May 13, 7:15 pm
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Moneyline: SD +130/LAD -150
Total: 8.5

After taking the first game of this series Friday night the Dodgers shoot for more against the rival Padres Saturday night at Chavez Ravine. Lefty Julio Urias hits the hill for the home team here against Joe Musgrove for the visitors.

Which way are we going with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s baseball betting market opened Los Angeles and Urias at around -145 over San Diego and Musgrove, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Padres-Dodgers Betting Preview

Los Angeles took the opener of this series Friday night 4-2. That game was tied 2-2 through 6.5 innings when the Dodgers got back-to-back home runs from Betts and Freeman to take a lead and hung on from there.

LA won Friday as a -130 favorite on the dime line and covered against the run line at a price of +140. Also, Friday’s game played under a total of nine runs.

The Dodgers now lead the season series with San Diego three games to one.

With Friday’s win Los Angeles is 8-2 over its last 10 games.

With Friday’s loss the Padres are 1-5 over their last six games.

At 24-15 overall the Dodgers lead the NL West by three games over second-place Arizona and by five games over 19-20 San Diego.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last Sunday in San Diego, a 5-2 Dodgers win.

Urias is 4/7 on quality starts this season. Last Sunday he held these Padres to two runs and eight hits through 5 2/3 innings of that 5-2 LA victory. And just before that he held Philadelphia to one run through seven innings of a 13-1 Dodgers decision.

Los Angeles is 5-3 with Urias this season and that’s about what they should be, based on his performances.

Over his last six starts against San Diego, one this year and five last year, Urias allowed nine runs and 27 hits through 34 2/3 innings. The Dodgers won all six of those games.

Musgrove is 0/3 on quality starts this year, yet to pitch more than five innings. Last Sunday he held this LA team to one unearned run and two hits through five frames, although the Padres lost that game 5-2. But just before that he gave up seven runs in 3 1/3 innings in that game against San Francisco in Mexico City.

San Diego is 2-1 with Musgrove this season.

Over his last five starts against the Dodgers, one this year and four last year, Musgrove allowed nine ER and 23 hits through 28 1/3 innings. The Padres lost four of those five games, thanks in large part to some poor run support.

Splits With the Sticks

San Diego is batting .270 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .336 team OBP and a .441 team slugging percentage.

Los Angeles is slashing .242/.336/.463 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 4.28 ERA this season, along with a 1.34 WHIP and a 2.86 K/BB ratio.

The Padres pen owns a 3.99 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.30 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

San Diego is 9-8 on the road this season and 7-6 against left-handed starters.

Los Angeles is 12-6 at home and 17-9 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

The unders are 24-13 in Padres games this season.

The overs are 21-16 in Dodgers games.

The unders are 10-9 at Dodger Stadium this season.

Padres at Dodgers MLB Pick 05/13/23

Urias gets our check-mark in the pitching match-up but the splits with the sticks and the bullpens look about even. Which indicates to us the line on this game is slightly inflated. We look for good betting value every day on the baseball dime lines and we like the value with San Diego here getting that underdog price.

Free Pick: Take SD +130
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