San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs Free Pick - Odds - Expert Preview 4/25/23
Betting Odds
The Cubs are off to a solid start to this season while the Padres are finally back to somewhere near full strength, heading into the opener of this three-game series at Wrigley Field Tuesday night. Hot lefty Justin Steele hits the hill for Chicago here against fellow southpaw Blake Snell for San Diego.
How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Tuesday’s baseball betting market opened this game at right around a pick ‘em, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then slid the Cubs into -125 favorites.
Padres-Cubs Betting Preview
San Diego just took three of four games at Arizona over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series finale 7-5. The Padres then had Monday off to travel.
San Diego just welcomed OF Fernando Tatis back to the line-up, after extended time off, and while he hasn’t done much yet the Padres are 3-1 since his return.
Chicago, meanwhile, just lost three of four games at home to the Dodgers, losing Sunday’s series finale 7-3. The Cubs then also had Monday off.
Prior to the weekend Chicago won four series in a row, going 10-3 in the process. So with 12 wins already the Cubbies are off to a great start playing against their season wins over/under of 77.5.
Last year San Diego took the season series from Chicago five games to two.
Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up
Steele is a perfect 4/4 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday he held Oakland to two runs - one earned - and four hits through six innings of a 12-2 Chicago victory. And over his four starts this season he’s allowed just four ER and 14 hits through 25 innings, with eight walks against 24 strikeouts.
The Cubs are 3-1 with Steele this season and should be 4-0, considering he tossed six scoreless innings in the only game they lost.
In his only career start against San Diego, in June of last season, Steele allowed just one run through seven frames of a 4-1 Cubs win.
Snell, on the other hand, is 0/4 on quality starts this year. Last Tuesday he limited the Braves to two runs and three hits through five innings, although the Padres lost that game 8-1. But over his three starts previous to that he got knocked around for 10 ER and 20 hits through 13 innings.
San Diego is 0-4 with Snell this season and he can take a decent portion of the blame for that.
This will be Snell’s first start against the Cubs since 2017, when he was with Tampa Bay, and that’s a long time ago.
Splits With the Sticks
San Diego is batting .241 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .295 team OBP and a .410 team slugging percentage.
Chicago is slashing .286/.346/.461 against left-handed pitching.
The Bullpens
The Cubs bullpen owns a 4.31 ERA this season, along with a 1.23 WHIP and a 2.88 K/BB ratio.
The Padres pen owns a 4.45 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a 2.33 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
San Diego is 7-4 on the road this season and 4-4 against left-handed starters.
Chicago is 6-7 at home but 5-2 against left-handed starters.
Totals Report
The unders are 12-11 in Padres games this season.
The overs are 12-9 in Cubs games.
The overs are 7-6 at Wrigley Field this season.
The overs are a combined 6-2 with Snell and Steele this season.
Padres at Cubs Pick 04/25/23
At first glance the Cubs with Steele should probably be favored by even more than -125. But our take here is Chicago is playing over its head so far this season while San Diego is kinda just getting started, with Tatis finally back in the line-up. Also, we still have some faith in Snell. So we like the Padres catching an underdog price Tuesday night.