Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays Pick - Betting Odds 5/2/23
Betting Odds
The two hottest teams through the first month of this new baseball season meet when the Pirates - yea, the Pirates - and Rays begin a three-game series at the Trop Tuesday night.
Javy Guerra, back with Tampa after starting this season with Milwaukee, will make his first ML start here, probably as an “opener,” against young righty Roansy Contreras for Pittsburgh.
Who do we like for our free baseball betting pick?
Pirates-Rays Betting Preview
Pittsburgh just took two of three games at Washington over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday’s series finale 7-2. The Pirates then had Monday off.
Just before that Pittsburgh took two of three games from the Dodgers and just before that they swept four games from Cincinnati. Going back a bit further the upstart Pirates are 4-0 over their last four series and 11-2 over their last 13 games.
At 20-9 overall Pittsburgh, a 40/1 shot to win the NL Central before the season started, leads the division by a game and a half over second-place Milwaukee.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, just took three of four games at the White Sox over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by blowing a four-run, ninth-inning lead to lose Sunday’s series finale 12-9. The Rays then also had Monday off.
Just before that Tampa lost two of three games to Houston but just prior to that it swept three games from those same White Sox. Going back a bit further the Rays are 3-1 over their last four series and 9-3 over their last 12 games.
At 23-6 overall Tampa Bay leads the AL East by 3.5 games over second-place Baltimore.
These two teams met once last season; the Rays swept three games from the Pirates also in St. Pete.
Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up
Guerra made eight appearances for the Brewers earlier this season, did OK for a while, then got touched for five runs in less than two innings in an outing against Boston a couple Sundays ago. Milwaukee then DFA’d Guerra, then traded him back to Tampa Bay last week.
Two season ago Guerra pitched 16 innings for the Rays. For his ML career he’s posted a 6.92 ERA through 52 total innings.
This will be Guerra’s first career action against Pittsburgh.
Contreras is 3/5 on quality starts this season, working on a run of three in a row. Last Wednesday he held the Dodgers scoreless on two hits through six innings of an 8-1 Pirates victory. And over his last three starts he’s allowed just three runs and 13 hits through 18 2/3 innings, with seven walks against 19 strikeouts.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 with Contreras this season and that’s what they should be, based on his performances.
In his one career start against the Rays, back in June of last season, Contreras allowed just one run and four hits through five innings, although the Pirates lost that game 4-2.
Splits With the Sticks
Pittsburgh is batting .253 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .332 team OBP and a .444 team slugging percentage. The Pirates have also scored at least six runs five times over their last six games.
Tampa Bay is slashing .273/.347/.519 against right-handed pitching.
The Bullpens
The Rays bullpen owns a 2.97 ERA this season, along with a 1.07 WHIP and a 2.00 K/BB ratio.
The Pirates pen owns a 3.10 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.39 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
The Pirates are 11-5 on the road this season and 14-7 against right-handed starters.
The Rays are 14-2 at home and 17-5 against right-handed starters.
Totals Report
The totals are split 14-14 in Pirates games this season.
The overs are 16-10 in Rays games.
The overs are 9-6 at Tropicana Field this season.
Pittsburg at Tampa Bay MLB Pick 05/092/23
Guerra is probably starting Tuesday in an opener’s role before turning this game over to Tampa Bay’s very capable bullpen. Meanwhile, Contreras is going really good as of late. So the overall pitching match-up looks about like a wash. From there we give the Rays, with perhaps the most balanced line-up in Baseball, the edge with the sticks. Ultimately, we expect Pittsburgh to fall back to Earth sometime soon while Tampa might really be this good. We’re betting the Rays Tuesday night.