Phillies vs D'backs Game 4 Betting Pick & Analysis
After getting on the board with a Game 3 victory Thursday night, the Diamondbacks look to pull this National League championship series to even when the teams meet for Game 4 Friday night in Phoenix.
Arizona is going with its bullpen for Game 4, beginning with lefty “opener” Joe Mantiply, while Philadelphia will go with fellow southpaw Christopher Sanchez.
NLCS Betting Odds
Friday’s playoff baseball betting market opened with Philadelphia at around -125 for Game 4, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Phillies to -135.
NLCS Game 4 Betting Preview
After dropping the first two games of this NLCS on the road, Arizona got on the board Thursday night with a 2-1 Game 3 victory. That game was scoreless through six innings and 1-1 into the bottom of the ninth, before the Diamondbacks won it on a two-out Ketel Marte base hit.
Philadelphia won the opener of this NLCS Monday night 5-3, then took Game 2 Tuesday 10-0.
So the Phillies are now 7-2 this postseason, Arizona 6-2.
Philly played six games better than the Diamondbacks during the regular season and took the season series from Arizona four games to three.
NLCS Game 4 Pitching Match-Up
Mantiply is making his fourth start of this season, to go along with 30+ appearances in relief. But he’s only expected to go an inning or two before turning this game over to the Arizona bullpen.
Over two appearances against Philadelphia this season, including one Tuesday night, Mantiply got bopped around for seven runs and nine hits through just 3 1/3 innings.
Sanchez is making his first start in three weeks Friday night. Over his last five appearances he allowed nine runs and 22 hits through 24 1/3 innings, with four walks against 26 strikeouts.
The Phillies played 8-11 with Sanchez this season, although 10-9 might be closer to the truth, based on his game-by-game performances.
Over two career appearances against Arizona, both last season, Sanchez allowed five runs in less than two innings.
Splits With the Sticks
Philadelphia batted .256 this season, with a .327 team OBP and a .438 team OBP.
Arizona slashed .251/.317/.394 against left-handed pitching.
The Diamondbacks pen posted a 4.22 ERA this season, along with a 1.30 WHIP and a 2.47 K/BB ratio.
The Phillies pen put up a 3.58 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.72 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
Philadelphia played 41-40 on the road this season.
Arizona played 43-38 at home and 28-21 against left-handed starters.
The unders played 76-73 in Phillies games this season.
The unders played 84-69 in Diamondbacks games.
The unders played 43-31 at Chase Field this season.
Free NLCS Pick
We’re giving Philadelphia the edges in both the pitching match-up here and with the sticks. Also, the Phillies are a battle-tested outfit, having gone through the playoffs all the way to the World Series last season. So they know how to handle this situation. And after managing just three hits Thursday night we won’t be surprised if Philly bangs out 10 or more Friday night. We’re betting the Phillies to take Game 4.