Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Free MLB Pick
The Philadelphia Phillies hold a 1-0 lead in this best-of-five NL divisional-round series. They snagged a 3-0 win in the first game, showing they're not here to mess around.
Now, they're shooting for a 2-0 lead on Monday night, and I've got my eyes on this matchup. Lefty Max Fried is tasked with keeping the Braves from falling further behind against Philadelphia's Zach Wheeler. Let's dive into this game and see where we can find some betting value.
MLB Betting Odds
First things first, the odds. When the market opened, Atlanta was around -145 over Philadelphia, with an over/under set at eight runs. But, as expected, some early action bumped the Braves up to -160. If you're feeling adventurous, you can find Atlanta at +130 with a run and a half on the run line.
Phillies-Braves Game 2 Betting Preview
In the opening game, the Phillies took care of business. They only managed two runs off Atlanta starter Strider and one off the Braves' bullpen. But here's the kicker: Philly's pitching staff, led by Suarez and six relievers, limited Atlanta's potent offense to just five singles and zero runs.
Yes, you heard that right. The Phillies won as +180 underdogs, and the game stayed under 8.5 runs. That's three playoff wins in a row for the Phillies, who are looking to replicate their last year's National League pennant success.
In the regular season, the Braves were sitting pretty, finishing 14 games ahead of the Phillies and winning eight out of their 13 matchups. But as we all know, the postseason is a different beast.
Monday's Pitching Match-Up
Max Fried has been on a roll lately, allowing only seven runs and 22 hits in his last five starts covering 30 innings. He's got nine walks and 35 strikeouts in there, too. Just over two weeks ago, he held Washington to one run in six innings, securing a 10-3 Atlanta victory.
Fried is a big reason why the Braves went 11-3 with him during the season, including an impressive 5-0 streak in his last five starts.
On the flip side, we've got Zach Wheeler. He's already claimed a postseason win, allowing just one run and five hits over 6 2/3 innings against Miami. He wrapped up the regular season by keeping his opponents to five earned runs over his last 17 innings.
Philadelphia had a solid 19-13 record with Wheeler during the regular season, and he's 3-1 in his last four outings.
Wheeler has faced the Braves three times this season, allowing seven runs in 19 innings. The Phillies won two of those matchups.
Splits With the Sticks
Philly bats .256 against left-handed pitching, boasting a .327 team OBP and a .452 team slugging percentage. The Braves, on the other hand, slash .272/.342/.495 against right-handed pitching, which ranks them as one of the best lineups in baseball.
The Braves' bullpen posted a 3.81 ERA this season with a 1.25 WHIP and a 3.04 K/BB ratio. Meanwhile, the Phillies' pen wasn't too shabby either, with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 2.72 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
The Phillies went 41-40 on the road this season and 30-21 against left-handed starters. The Braves were strong at home, going 52-29, and they performed well against right-handed starters at 81-49.
If you're a totals bettor, keep in mind that the under hit in 76 of Phillies' games this season and the over hit in 91 of Braves' games. Also, Truist Park saw the over hit 48 times out of 80 this year.
Phillies at Braves Pick
Now, where's my money going for this one? Fried might have a slight edge in the pitching department, but it's a close call. Atlanta holds the upper hand with their lineup and bullpen, although it's a tight race there too.
Atlanta can't afford to fall 2-0 behind in this series at home. Expect them to unleash their offense soon. I'm going with the Braves on the run line here, grabbing that enticing plus price.