NLCS Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Betting: Pick
The National League Championship Series kicks off as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1. Both teams defied expectations this season, with the Phillies entering as wild-card entries for the second consecutive year, while the Diamondbacks orchestrated a shocking three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.
Let's dive into the pitching duel and make our free NLCS Game 1 baseball betting pick.
NLCS Betting Odds
The initial odds for Game 1 favor the Phillies at around -160, with an over/under set at 7.5 runs. These numbers held steady in the early betting action.
Diamondbacks-Phillies Game 1 Betting Preview
The Diamondbacks took the baseball world by storm by stunning the heavily-favored Dodgers in the NLDS. The D-backs claimed the first two games of the series at Dodger Stadium and sealed the deal with a 4-2 victory in Game 3. It marks Arizona's return to the NLCS for the first time since 2007.
Philadelphia secured its place in the NLCS by defeating the top-seeded Braves in four games during the NLDS. After splitting the first two games in Atlanta, the Phillies secured the series win with a 3-1 victory at home.
The Phillies, with 90 regular-season wins, played just over their over/under line set at 88.5. They entered the season with +900 odds to win the pennant. In contrast, the Diamondbacks exceeded expectations by winning 84 games, surpassing their over/under line of 75.5, and entering the season with +7000 odds to win the National League pennant.
In head-to-head regular-season matchups, the Phillies finished six games ahead of the Diamondbacks and won the season series 4-3.
NLCS Game 1 Pitching Match-Up
In his two postseason starts, Zach Wheeler has displayed a 2.25 ERA. He allowed just one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings during the wild-card round against Miami. In the NLDS against Atlanta, Wheeler gave up two runs and three hits in 6 1/3 innings, along with one walk and 10 strikeouts. However, the Phillies lost that game 5-4.
The Phillies hold a 20-14 record with Wheeler on the mound this season, although a 22-12 record could more accurately represent his performance when examining individual games.
Zac Gallen, on the other hand, is also making his third postseason start. In the wild-card clincher against Milwaukee, he surrendered two runs and five hits across six innings during a 5-2 Diamondbacks win. Against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, Gallen once again allowed two runs and five hits across 5 1/3 innings, this time during a 4-2 Diamondbacks victory.
Arizona holds a 21-15 record with Gallen on the mound this season, with a 22-14 record potentially providing a more accurate reflection of his performance when examining individual games.
Gallen's only start against the Phillies this season ended with him giving up two runs and five hits in 5 2/3 innings, although the Diamondbacks bullpen eventually allowed the game to slip away in a 6-5 loss.
Splits With the Sticks
The Diamondbacks batted .250 against right-handed pitching during the regular season, with a .323 team OBP and a .414 team slugging percentage. Conversely, the Phillies slashed .256/.327/.432 against right-handed pitching.
Philadelphia's bullpen boasted a 3.58 ERA this season, along with a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.72 K/BB ratio. In contrast, Arizona's bullpen had a 4.22 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.47 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
During the regular season, Arizona compiled a 41-40 road record and is currently 4-0 away from home this postseason. The Diamondbacks posted a 56-57 record against right-handed starters.
Philadelphia had a 49-32 home record during the regular season and was 60-51 against right-handed starters.
The under prevailed in 84 of the Diamondbacks' regular-season games, while the under hit in 76 of the Phillies' games. At Citizens Bank Park, the under was the outcome in 37 of the 72 games played.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Free MLB PIck
The pitching match-up in Game 1 seems evenly matched. While Philadelphia holds slight advantages in hitting and bullpen performance, the odds don't seem to justify such a high price for the Phillies. Philadelphia has thrived as underdogs in the past couple of postseasons, but they find themselves as favorites against the spirited Diamondbacks in this encounter. Our baseball betting value pick for Game 1 is with the Diamondbacks at the plus price.