New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds - Free MLB Pick

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds - Free MLB Pick

Rich Crew
Date: August 19, 7:10 pm
Location: BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Phillies -192 / Mets +167
Total: 9

<p>
In yesterday's action, the Mets beat the Phillies 3-1 to even the weekend set at two games apiece. They’ll play the rubber match in a rare five-game series tonight. The win by the Mets was their seventh in the last 11 games and sixth victory in ten games on this road trip. The Phillies after winning five in a row have gone 5-7 over their last 12. In 12 meetings between these two clubs in 2018, the Mets hold a 7-5 edge.
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<p>
Statistically this season, the Mets rank 21st in runs scored and 19th in team ERA and the Phillies rank 20th in runs scored and 9th in team ERA.
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<h2>
Pitching Match-Up<br />
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<p>
<b>New York: </b>Jason Vargas (2-8 8.10 ERA)<br />
<b>Philadelphia:</b> Nick Pivetta (7-9 4.37 ERA)
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<p></p>
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In Vargas’s last start he gave up two earned runs on five hits through six innings in a 6-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. The Mets have lost his previous seven appearances, and since coming off the DL last month, he is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.89 in four starts. This is Vargas's first start of the season against the Phillies. Overall, the Mets have lost 12 of Vargas's last 14 starts, and they have lost his previous four road starts.
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<p>
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<p>
In Pivetta’s last start he was sharp allowing one earned run on three hits in six innings pitched, but got little help in a 2-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox. The Phillies had won his previous two starts, and in his last three outings he has given up three earned runs in 18 innings. This is Pivetta’s first start of the season against the Mets and last season in four starts facing them he went 2-1 with an ERA of 4.98. The Phillies have lost five of Pivetta’s last seven home starts.
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<h2>
Mets at Phillies MLB Betting Angles<br />
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<p>
The Mets are 62-30 in their last 92 games against the Phillies.
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<p>
In the last 12 games between these teams, the Under record is 9-3.
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<h2>
Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records<br />
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<p>
<b>New York Mets:</b> 53-69 SU / O/U 56-62 / Run Line W/L 58-64<br />
<b>Philadelphia Phillies:</b> 68-55 SU / O/U 52-65 / Run Line W/L 63-60
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<p></p>
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/942906">New York at Philadelphia MLB Match-Up</a></span>
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<h2>
New York at Philadelphia MLB Key Betting Trends<br />
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<ul>
<li>
NY is 38-80 in their last 118 games against a team with a winning record
</li>
<li>
NY is 12-30 in their previous 42 games following a win
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<li>
NY has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game
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<li>
PHIL is 5-2 in their last 7 games following a loss
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<li>
PHIL is 4-1 in their last 5 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game
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<li>
PHIL has an Under record of 14-5-1 in their last 20 games
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<h3>
Key Player Injuries<br />
</h3>
<p>
<b>METS </b>
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<p>
[P] 03/26/2018 - Rafael Montero 60-day DL (03/26) ( Elbow )<br />
[SS] 03/26/2018 - T.J. Rivera 60-day DL (02/18) ( Elbow )<br />
[C] 04/14/2018 - Travis d'Arnaud 60-day DL (04/11) ( Elbow )<br />
[3B] 04/28/2018 - David Wright 60-day DL (03/26) ( Shoulder )<br />
[P] 06/22/2018 - AJ Ramos 60-day DL (05/27) ( Shoulder )<br />
[RF] 06/19/2018 - Jay Bruce 10-day DL (06/18) ( Hip )<br />
[1B] 06/11/2018 - Adrian Gonzalez has been released ( None )<br />
[CF] 06/10/2018 - Juan Lagares is out for season ( Toe )<br />
[P] 08/17/2018 - Bobby Wahl 10-day DL (08/17) ( Hamstring )<br />
[P] 08/05/2018 - Anthony Swarzak 10-day DL (08/04) ( Shoulder )<br />
[LF] 07/24/2018 - Yoenis Cespedes 60-day DL (07/21); is out for season ( Heel )
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<p>
<b>PHILLIES </b>
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<p>
[P] 07/23/2018 - Edubray Ramos 10-day DL (07/23) ( Knee )<br />
[CF] 07/10/2018 - Pedro Florimon 60-day DL (07/10) ( Foot )<br />
[P] 08/16/2018 - Austin Davis 10-day DL (08/16) ( Back )<br />
[P] 08/16/2018 - Aaron Loup 10-day DL (08/16) ( Forearm )<br />
[P] 05/08/2018 - Adam Morgan 10-day DL (05/08) ( Back )<br />
[P] 03/26/2018 - Jerad Eickhoff 60-day DL (03/26) ( Back )<br />
[P] 04/27/2018 - Ben Lively 10-day DL (04/27) ( Back )
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Mets at Phillies Prediction for August 19, 2018

The Mets have been playing better as of late with a positive record on this road trip including two wins over the Phillies this weekend. That said, the starting pitching edge by Philadelphia is enormous in this game. NY Mets starter Jason Vargas has been dreadful all season with 7.7 QS percentage, and while he did pick up a QS in his latest, it was against the Orioles weak unit so we'll have to see if it's a reliable indication of the reversal of form. The Phillies starter Nick Pivetta is pitching the best he has all season with three earned allowed over his last three starts getting QS in all three games. He hasn't had the most success against the Mets team, but he was facing tonight's projected starters holding them to a .182 batting average over 22 at bats. I think there is value in playing this game two ways in case Vargas has a good outing I’ll add a total bet, but even if we get a pitchers duel, I think the Phillies have a big enough edge in the pen to get the win and the cover.

Free Pick: Take the Phillies -1.5 +100 and the UNDER 8.5 (RC)
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