Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Pick - Odds - Expert Preview
Betting Odds
The Cardinals hope to continue their climb back toward .500 when they open a three-game NL Central rivalry series with the Brewers at Busch Stadium Monday night. Jack Flaherty, really struggling as of late, gets the start for St. Louis here against Freddy Peralta for Milwaukee.
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MLB Betting Odds
Monday’s baseball betting market opened this game at right around a pick ‘em, with an over/under of 8.5. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
Brewers-Cardinals Betting Preview
Milwaukee just swept three games at home from Kansas City over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series finale 9-6. Just before that the Brewers lost two of three games to the Dodgers while just before that they salvaged the third game of a series with San Francisco. So Milwaukee’s 5-2 over its last seven games.
At 23-17 overall the Brewers lead the NL Central by a game and a half over second-place Pittsburgh.
St. Louis, meanwhile, just swept three games at Boston, taking Sunday night’s series finale 9-1. Just before that the Cardinals took two of three games from the Cubs while just prior to that they took the final game of a series with Detroit. So St. Louis, following that awful start to this season, is 6-1 over its last seven games.
At 16-25 overall the Cardinals still own the worst record in the National League, but they’re making ground.
This series is the second meeting between these two teams this season; back in early April the Brewers took two of three from the Cardinals in Milwaukee. Peralta got a win in one of those games while Flaherty took a loss in another.
Monday's Pitching Match-Up
Flaherty, by our strict standards, is 0/8 on quality starts this season. Last Tuesday he gave up three runs on seven hits and five walks through five innings against the Cubs, although St. Louis won that game 6-4. And over his last three starts, including a really bad one against the Angels, Flaherty’s allowed 17 runs and 23 hits through just 12 total innings.
The Cardinals are 4-4 with Flaherty this season and that’s about what they should be, based on his performances.
Over his last two starts against Milwaukee, one last season and one five weeks ago, Flaherty allowed four runs on seven hits and 11 walks (!) through eight innings. St. Louis managed to split those two games.
Peralta is 5/7 on quality starts this year and three for his last three. Last Monday he held the Dodgers to one run and three hits through six innings of a 9-3 Brewers victory. And over his last three starts he’s allowed just five runs and 15 hits through 18 innings, with five walks against 23 strikeouts.
Milwaukee is 4-3 with Peralta this season and that’s probably a game worse than it should be.
Over his last two starts against the Cardinals, one good one earlier this season and one bad one last year, Peralta gave up seven runs through nine innings. The Brewers managed to split those two games.
Splits With the Sticks
Milwaukee is batting .251 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .331 team OBP and a .412 team slugging percentage. One thing that could really make this line-up dangerous is if lefty stick Yelich, who’s been a dead spot for a couple seasons now, can continue with his recent hot hitting.
St. Louis is slashing .260/.332/.432 against right-handed pitching.
The Bullpens
The Cardinals bullpen owns a 3.72 ERA this season, along with a 1.33 WHIP and a 2.50 K/BB ratio.
The Brewers pen owns a 3.45 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and a 2.45 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
Milwaukee is 10-9 on the road this season and 17-11 against right-handed starters.
St. Louis is just 6-13 at home and 11-20 against right-handed starters.
Totals Report
The unders are 21-18 in Brewers games this season.
The overs are 21-19 in Cardinals games.
The overs are 12-6 at Busch Stadium this season.
Brewers at Cardinals Free MLB Pick 05/15/23
Peralta gets the check-mark in this pitching match-up. From there Milwaukee might own a slight edge in the bullpen comparison while St. Louis might own a slight edge with the sticks. Bigger picture, the Cardinals seem to be coming around, like we figured they would, and momentum means a lot when handicapping baseball. We’re riding St. Louis Monday night.