The top two teams in the NL Central open the “second half” of this season with a three-game series in Cincinnati beginning Friday night. Graham Ashcraft, with his 6.28 ERA, gets the call for first-place Cincy here against former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes for the second-place Brew Crew. How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s baseball betting market opened Milwaukee and Burnes at around -120 over Cincinnati and Ashcraft, with an over/under of 9.5. Early betting action then bumped that total to 10.

Brewers-Reds Betting Preview

Milwaukee finished off the “first half” of this MLB betting season last weekend by taking two of three games from this Cincinnati outfit back at American Family Field. The Brewers won the first game of that series 7-3, blew a lead and lost the second game 8-5 but won Sunday’s series rubber match by the unlikely score of 1-0. Just prior to that Milwaukee split four games with the Cubs and just before that it took two of three at Pittsburgh. Going back a bit further the Brewers are 4-0-1 over their last five series and 11-6 over their last 17 games. Meanwhile, even with last weekend’s series loss the Reds are still one of Baseball’s hottest teams, going 24-8 their last 32 times out. One wonders if the All-Star break came at a bad time for Cincinnati. At 50-41 overall the Reds lead the NL Central by one game over 49-42 Milwaukee. The Brewers lead the season series with Cincy five games to two.

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Ashcraft, despite some bad overall numbers, is 7/16 on quality starts this season and two for his last two. Nine days ago he held Washington to one run and seven hits through six innings of a 9-2 Cincinnati victory. And just before that he held San Diego to one run through 6 2/3 of a 7-5 Reds win. Cincy is 8-8 with Ashcraft this season and that’s probably a game worse than it should be, based on his game-by-game performances. Over four career starts against Milwaukee, three last year and one really bad one earlier this season, Ashcraft gave up 21 runs and 29 hits through just 18 2/3 innings. The Reds managed to win one of those four games. Burnes is 8/18 on quality starts this year and also two for his last two. Last Friday he held this Cincinnati team to two runs and three hits through six innings of a 7-3 Brewers win. And just before that he held the Pirates to two runs and just one hit through seven frames of an 11-8 Milwaukee victory. The Brewers are 10-8 with Burnes this season, 5-2 his last seven times out. Over his last four starts against the Reds, two this season and two last season, Burnes allowed eight runs and just 11 hits through 24 1/3 innings, with 13 walks against 30 strikeouts. Milwaukee won three of those four games.

Splits With the Sticks

The Brewers are batting .233 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .314 team OBP and a .380 team slugging percentage. Cincinnati is slashing .255/.338/.411 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Reds bullpen owns a 3.86 ERA this season, along with a 1.36 WHIP and a 2.03 K/BB ratio. The Milwaukee pen owns a 4.05 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and a 2.48 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

Milwaukee is 23-21 on the road this season and 36-26 against right-handed starters. Cincinnati is 23-21 at home and 32-29 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

The unders are 46-41 in Brewers games this season. The overs are 53-38 in Reds games. The overs are 25-19 at Great American Ball Park this season.