After taking the first two games of this series at Chase Field the Mets shoot for the sweep of the Diamondbacks Thursday night. Arizona calls upon rookie righty Ryne Nelson to avoid such a fate while New York goes with veteran Carlos Carrasco. Who do we like for our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday's baseball betting market opened Arizona and Nelson at around -120 over New York and Carrasco, with an over/under of 10 runs. Early betting action then bumped the D'Backs to -135.

Mets-Diamondbacks Betting Preview

New York won the opener of this series Tuesday night 8-5, then took Wednesday's game 2-1 with two runs in the top of the ninth. The Mets won Tuesday as -150 favorites with Max Scherzer, then won Wednesday at -115 with Kodai Senga. With Wednesday's victory New York now owns a four-game winning streak. But at 40-46 overall the Mets still trail Philadelphia by 6.5 games in the battle for the No. 6 spot in the National League playoff standings. Meanwhile, with Wednesday's loss Arizona now owns a three-game losing skid. But at 50-37 overall the Diamondbacks still lead the NL West by a game and a half over the second-place Dodgers. This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year New York took the season series from the D'Backs four games to two.

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up

Nelson is only 5/17 on quality starts this season, pitching on a short leash, but two for his last two. Last Saturday he held the Angels to one run and three hits through 7 1/3 innings of a 3-1 Arizona win. And just before that he held San Francisco to one run through seven innings of a 5-2 Diamondbacks victory. Arizona is only 8-9 with Nelson this season but 7-3 his last 10 times out. This will be Nelson's first career start against the Mets. Carrasco is only 2/11 on quality starts this year and 0 for his last five. Last Friday he held the Giants to two runs and five hits through five innings of a 5-4 New York defeat. But over his four starts previous to that he gave up 13 earned runs and 22 hits, including four homers, through 16 2/3 innings. The Mets are 4-7 with Carrasco this season, 0-5 his last five times out. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, in April of last season, Carrasco tossed five scoreless innings, although New York lost that game 3-2.

Splits With the Sticks

New York is batting .240 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .320 team OBP and a .402 team slugging percentage. Arizona is slashing .262/.332/.443 against right-handed pitching. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Diamondbacks bullpen owns a 4.09 ERA this season, along with a 1.30 WHIP and a 2.56 K/BB ratio. The Mets pen owns a 4.24 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.43 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

New York is 20-27 on the road this season and 30-27 against right-handed starters. Arizona is 24-22 at home and 36-25 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

• The unders are 44-36 in Mets games this season.
• The unders are 42-40 in Diamondbacks games.
• The unders are 24-18 at Chase Field this season.