Dodgers at Diamondbacks Game 3 Pick & Predictions
We've got Game 3 of this National League divisional-round series coming up, and it's do or die for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The upstart Arizona Diamondbacks have surprisingly taken the first two games in Los Angeles and now look to seal the deal in Phoenix.
So, can the Dodgers muster a comeback to avoid an early playoff exit? Let's break it down.
MLB Betting Odds
The betting scene for this one opened with the Dodgers at around -150 over Arizona, setting the total at 9.5 runs. But early action slightly shifted things, putting the Dodgers at -145. And for those risk-takers out there, Arizona can be found at +140 with a run and a half on the run line.
Dodgers-Diamondbacks Betting Preview
Arizona has come out of the gate swinging this postseason. They kicked off this NLDS by hammering the Dodgers 11-2 in Game 1 and followed it up with a 4-2 win in Game 2. These Diamondbacks are on a 4-0 tear in the playoffs after making quick work of Milwaukee in the wild-card round.
In the regular season, the Dodgers finished a hefty 16 games ahead of the Diamondbacks and took the season series 8-5. But that's all history now, as the Diamondbacks are writing their own narrative.
Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up
First up, we've got rookie Brandon Pfaadt for Arizona. He had a bit of a rollercoaster regular season, with some ups and downs. But notably, he got the nod in Game 1 of the wild-card series against the Brewers, giving up three runs through 2 2/3 innings. Despite his uneven performance, Arizona pulled off a 6-3 win.
Pfaadt's record this season doesn't paint the prettiest picture, with Arizona going 8-10 with him. Truth be told, a 7-12 record might better reflect his performance on a game-by-game basis. Against the Dodgers, he got roughed up for nine earned runs and 14 hits in just 8 2/3 innings over two starts.
On the flip side, veteran Lance Lynn gets the call for the Dodgers. He's been on the upswing lately, allowing just two runs and two hits in his last outing against San Francisco, securing a 6-2 Dodgers win. Over his last four starts, he's given up nine runs and 18 hits across 24 innings.
The Dodgers have seen considerable success with Lynn on the mound, boasting a 9-2 record since acquiring him in a deadline trade with the White Sox. In his last four outings, they've been a perfect 4-0. Lynn's last start against Arizona was back in 2020 when he was with the Texas Rangers.
Splits With the Sticks
The Dodgers are no slouches at the plate, hitting .262 against right-handed pitching this season with a .343 team OBP and a .456 team slugging percentage. The Diamondbacks, in contrast, slashed .250/.323/.414 against right-handed pitching.
In the bullpen department, the Diamondbacks carried a 4.22 ERA this season, along with a 1.30 WHIP and a 2.47 K/BB ratio. On the other side, the Dodgers' pen was solid, with a 3.42 ERA, a Major League-best 1.17 WHIP, and a 3.07 K/BB ratio.
MLB Betting Trends
On the road this season, the Dodgers went 47-34 and were 74-39 against right-handed starters. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, were 43-38 at home but only managed a 56-57 record against right-handed starters.
For the totals bettors out there, the over hit in 90 of Dodgers' games this season. On the flip side, the under prevailed in 84 of Diamondbacks' games, and at Chase Field, the under hit 43 times out of 74 games.
Dodgers at D'Backs Moneyline Pick
Alright, let's get down to business. While Pfaadt may have shown sparks of brilliance, we're giving the pitching edge to Lynn, especially given the Dodgers' past success against Pfaadt.
But it doesn't end there. The Dodgers are looking strong in the hitting department and have the bullpen advantage. Our pick for this one? We like LA to stay alive in the postseason, and if you're feeling adventurous, consider playing the Dodgers on the run line at +105. It's a risk worth taking. Let's see if the Dodgers can turn the tide and make this series one to remember. Good luck with your bets!